Guides:Kill Probability

From The Urban Dead Wiki

Jump to: navigation, search

The following charts show the probability that a target will be killed after a certain number of attacks. This is useful to know when you want to avoid being tracked by the Scent Trail zombie skill, which could lead an injured zombie (and his horde) to your safehouse.

Note that the number of attacks is the basis for these figures -- not the number of AP. Remember to take reloads into account when using these charts.

Figures given in percentages.
-- indicates no chance of killing.
<< indicates less than 0.05%.
>> indicates 99.95% or greater.

Firearms

Pistol

# of
Shots
Basic Firearms (30% hit) Pistol Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shots
w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP
10 -- -- -- 0.3 -- -- -- 1.3 -- -- -- 10
11 -- -- -- 1.4 -- -- -- 6.1 -- -- -- 11
12 << -- -- 4.2 0.1 -- -- 15.1 0.6 -- -- 12
13 0.1 -- 9.3 0.5 << -- 27.8 3.0 0.4 -- 13
14 0.2 -- 16.7 1.7 0.3 -- 42.3 8.4 2.1 -- 14
15 0.4 26.1 4.2 1.1 << 56.4 17.3 6.2 0.2 15
16 0.7 << 36.6 8.5 2.8 0.1 68.8 28.9 13.4 1.0 16
17 1.3 0.1 47.4 14.7 6.0 0.4 78.7 42.0 23.5 3.3 17
18 2.1 0.1 << 57.8 22.6 10.8 1.2 86.1 54.9 35.5 7.8 18
19 3.3 0.3 0.1 67.1 31.7 17.3 2.8 91.3 66.6 48.1 15.0 19
20 4.8 0.5 0.1 75.1 41.4 25.2 5.5 94.7 76.2 60.1 24.5 20
21 6.8 0.9 0.2 81.6 51.2 34.1 9.6 96.9 83.8 70.6 35.7 21
22 9.2 1.4 0.4 86.7 60.4 43.5 15.2 98.2 89.3 79.2 47.4 22
23 12.0 2.1 0.7 << 90.6 68.7 52.8 22.0 99.0 93.2 85.8 58.6 23
24 15.3 3.1 1.2 0.1 93.5 75.8 61.5 29.9 99.5 95.8 90.6 68.7 24
25 18.9 4.4 1.7 0.2 95.6 81.7 69.4 38.4 99.7 97.5 94.0 77.1 25
26 23.0 6.0 2.6 0.3 97.1 86.5 76.2 47.1 99.8 98.5 96.2 83.8 26
27 27.2 8.0 3.6 0.5 98.1 90.2 81.9 55.6 99.9 99.1 97.7 88.9 27
28 31.8 10.3 4.9 0.8 98.8 93.0 86.5 63.6 >> 99.5 98.6 92.6 28
29 36.4 12.9 6.5 1.2 99.2 95.1 90.1 70.7 99.7 99.2 95.2 29
# of
Shots
Basic Firearms (30% hit) Pistol Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shots
w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP
30 41.1 15.9 8.4 1.7 99.5 96.7 92.9 76.9 99.9 99.5 97.0 30
31 45.8 19.2 10.7 2.4 99.7 97.7 94.9 82.2 99.9 99.7 98.1 31
32 50.5 22.8 13.3 3.3 99.8 98.5 96.5 86.5 >> 99.9 98.9 32
33 55.0 26.7 16.1 4.4 99.9 99.0 97.6 89.9 99.9 99.3 33
34 59.4 30.7 19.3 5.7 99.9 99.4 98.4 92.6 >> 99.6 34
35 63.5 34.8 22.7 7.3 >> 99.6 98.9 94.6 99.8 35
36 67.5 39.1 26.3 9.2 99.7 99.3 96.2 99.9 36
37 71.1 43.4 30.2 11.3 99.8 99.5 97.3 99.9 37
38 74.5 47.6 34.1 13.7 99.9 99.7 98.1 >> 38
39 77.6 51.8 38.2 16.4 99.9 99.8 98.7 39
40 80.4 55.9 42.3 19.3 >> 99.9 99.1 40
41 83.0 59.9 46.4 22.4 99.9 99.4 41
42 85.2 63.7 50.4 25.7 >> 99.6 42
43 87.3 67.3 54.4 29.2 99.8 43
44 89.1 70.6 58.3 32.8 99.8 44
45 90.7 73.8 62.0 36.5 99.9 45
46 92.1 76.7 65.5 40.3 99.9 46
47 93.3 79.4 68.9 44.1 >> 47
48 94.3 81.9 72.0 47.9 48
49 95.2 84.1 75.0 51.6 49
50 96.0 86.1 77.7 55.3 50
# of
Shots
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Shots
w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak
Basic Firearms (30% hit) Pistol Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit)


Shotgun

# of
Shots
Basic Firearms (30% hit) Shotgun Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shots
w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP
5 0.2 -- -- -- 5.0 -- -- -- 11.6 -- -- -- 5
6 1.1 0.1 -- -- 16.4 2.8 -- -- 31.9 7.5 -- -- 6
7 2.9 0.4 << -- 31.6 10.2 1.5 -- 53.2 23.4 4.9 -- 7
8 5.8 1.1 0.1 << 47.7 22.0 6.3 0.8 70.6 42.8 16.9 3.2 8
9 9.9 2.5 0.4 << 62.1 36.1 15.0 3.9 82.8 60.9 33.7 12.1 9
10 15.0 4.7 1.1 0.2 73.8 50.4 26.6 10.0 90.5 75.1 51.4 26.2 10
11 21.0 7.8 2.2 0.4 82.6 63.3 39.7 19.1 95.0 85.1 66.8 42.6 11
12 27.6 11.8 3.9 0.9 88.8 73.9 52.7 30.4 97.4 91.5 78.7 58.3 12
13 34.6 16.5 6.2 1.8 93.0 82.1 64.4 42.7 98.7 95.4 87.1 71.6 13
14 41.6 21.9 9.3 3.1 95.7 88.1 74.1 54.6 99.4 97.6 92.5 81.6 14
15 48.5 27.8 13.1 5.0 97.5 92.3 81.8 65.4 99.7 98.8 95.8 88.7 15
16 55.0 34.0 17.5 7.4 98.5 95.1 87.6 74.4 99.9 99.4 97.7 93.3 16
17 61.1 40.3 22.5 10.5 99.1 97.0 91.7 81.7 99.9 99.7 98.8 96.2 17
18 66.7 46.6 27.8 14.1 99.5 98.2 94.6 87.2 >> 99.9 99.4 97.9 18
19 71.8 52.6 33.4 18.2 99.7 98.9 96.6 91.3 >> 99.9 99.7 98.9 19
20 76.2 58.4 39.2 22.8 99.8 99.4 97.9 94.2 >> >> 99.8 99.4 20
21 80.2 63.7 44.9 27.7 99.9 99.6 98.7 96.2 >> >> 99.9 99.7 21
22 83.5 68.7 50.6 32.9 >> 99.8 99.2 97.6 >> >> >> 99.8 22
23 86.4 73.1 56.0 38.2 >> 99.9 99.5 98.5 >> >> >> 99.9 23
24 88.9 77.1 61.1 43.5 >> 99.9 99.7 99.0 >> >> >> >> 24
25 91.0 80.7 65.9 48.8 >> >> 99.8 99.4 >> >> >> >> 25
26 92.7 83.7 70.3 54.0 >> >> 99.9 99.6 >> >> >> >> 26
27 94.1 86.4 74.4 58.9 >> >> 99.9 99.8 >> >> >> >> 27
# of
Shots
Basic Firearms (30% hit) Shotgun Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shots
w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP
28 95.3 88.7 78.0 63.5 >> >> >> 99.9 >> >> >> >> 28
29 96.2 90.7 81.2 67.9 >> >> >> 99.9 >> >> >> >> 29
30 97.0 92.3 84.0 71.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 30
31 97.6 93.7 86.5 75.5 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 31
32 98.1 94.9 88.7 78.8 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 32
33 98.5 95.9 90.6 81.8 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 33
34 98.8 96.7 92.1 84.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 34
35 99.1 97.3 93.5 86.7 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 35
36 99.3 97.8 94.6 88.8 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 36
37 99.4 98.3 95.6 90.5 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 37
38 99.6 98.6 96.4 92.1 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 38
39 99.7 98.9 97.1 93.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 39
40 99.7 99.1 97.6 94.5 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 40
41 99.8 99.3 98.1 95.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 41
42 99.8 99.5 98.5 96.2 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 42
43 99.9 99.6 98.8 96.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 43
44 99.9 99.7 99.0 97.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 44
45 99.9 99.7 99.2 97.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 45
46 99.9 99.8 99.4 98.3 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 46
47 >> 99.8 99.5 98.6 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 47
48 >> 99.9 99.6 98.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 48
49 >> 99.9 99.7 99.1 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 49
50 >> 99.9 99.8 99.3 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 50
# of
Shots
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Shots
w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak
Basic Firearms (30% hit) Shotgun Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit)


Melee Weapons

Fire Axe

# of
Attacks
Hand to Hand (25% hit) Axe Proficiency (40% hit) # of
Attacks
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP
22 << << << << 22
23 << << 0.1 << 23
24 << << 0.2 << 24
25 << << 0.4 << 25
26 << << 0.8 << 26
27 << << 1.3 << 27
28 << << 2.2 0.1 28
29 << << 3.3 0.2 29
30 << << 4.8 0.3 30
31 << << 6.8 0.5 31
32 0.1 << 9.2 0.8 32
33 0.1 << 12.1 1.3 33
34 0.1 << 15.5 2.0 34
35 0.2 << 19.3 3.0 35
36 0.3 << 23.6 4.3 36
37 0.5 << 28.2 5.9 37
38 0.6 << 33.0 7.8 38
39 0.9 << 38.1 10.2 39
40 1.2 0.1 43.2 13.0 40
41 1.5 0.1 48.3 16.1 41
42 2.0 0.1 53.3 19.7 42
43 2.5 0.2 58.2 23.6 43
44 3.2 0.3 62.9 27.7 44
45 3.9 0.3 67.3 32.1 45
46 4.8 0.5 71.4 36.7 46
47 5.9 0.6 75.1 41.4 47
48 7.0 0.8 78.6 46.1 48
49 8.4 1.1 81.6 50.8 49
50 9.8 1.4 84.4 55.4 50
# of
Attacks
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Attacks
Hand to Hand (25% hit) Axe Proficiency (40% hit)


Knife

# of
Attacks
Hand to Hand (35% hit) Knife Combat (50% hit) # of
Attacks
50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP
31 << << << << 31
32 << << 0.1 << 32
33 << << 0.2 << 33
34 << << 0.5 << 34
35 << << 0.8 << 35
36 << << 1.4 << 36
37 << << 2.4 << 37
38 << << 3.6 << 38
39 << << 5.4 0.1 39
40 << << 7.7 0.1 40
41 0.1 << 10.6 0.2 41
42 0.1 << 14.0 0.4 42
43 0.2 << 18.0 0.7 43
44 0.3 << 22.6 1.1 44
45 0.4 << 27.6 1.8 45
46 0.6 << 32.9 2.7 46
47 0.8 << 38.5 3.9 47
48 1.1 << 44.3 5.6 48
49 1.5 << 50.0 7.6 49
50 2.1 << 55.6 10.1 50
# of
Attacks
50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP # of
Attacks
Hand to Hand (35% hit) Knife Combat (50% hit)


Zombie Attacks

The tables below do not take into account the Tangling Grasp zombie skill, which gives a 10% hit bonus for subsequent attacks after a successful Claw attack.

Claw

# of
Attacks
Base (25% hit) Vigour Mortis (35% hit) Death Grip (50% hit) # of
Attacks
w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP
19 -- -- << -- -- -- << -- -- -- << -- 19
20 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 0.1 << 20
21 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 0.4 << 21
22 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 0.8 << 22
23 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 1.7 << 23
24 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 3.2 0.1 24
25 << -- << << << -- 0.1 << << -- 5.4 0.2 25
26 << -- << << << -- 0.2 << << -- 8.4 0.5 26
27 << -- << << << -- 0.3 << << -- 12.4 1.0 27
28 << -- << << << -- 0.5 << << -- 17.2 1.8 28
29 << -- << << << -- 0.8 << << -- 22.9 3.1 29
30 << << << << << << 1.2 << << << 29.2 4.9 30
31 << << << << << << 1.9 0.1 << << 36.0 7.5 31
32 << << 0.1 << << << 2.7 0.1 0.1 << 43.0 10.8 32
33 << << 0.1 << << << 3.8 0.2 0.2 << 50.0 14.8 33
34 << << 0.1 << << << 5.1 0.4 0.5 << 56.8 19.6 34
35 << << 0.2 << << << 6.8 0.6 0.8 << 63.2 25.0 35
36 << << 0.3 << << << 8.8 0.9 1.4 << 69.1 30.9 36
37 << << 0.5 << << << 11.2 1.4 2.4 << 74.4 37.1 37
38 << << 0.6 << << << 13.9 1.9 3.6 << 79.1 43.6 38
39 << << 0.9 << << << 16.9 2.7 5.4 0.1 83.2 50.0 39
40 << << 1.2 0.1 << << 20.2 3.6 7.7 0.1 86.6 56.3 40
41 << << 1.5 0.1 0.1 << 23.8 4.8 10.6 0.2 89.4 62.2 41
42 << << 2.0 0.1 0.1 << 27.7 6.2 14.0 0.4 91.8 67.8 42
43 << << 2.5 0.2 0.2 << 31.7 7.9 18.0 0.7 93.7 72.9 43
44 << << 3.2 0.3 0.3 << 35.9 9.9 22.6 1.1 95.2 77.4 44
45 << << 3.9 0.3 0.4 << 40.2 12.1 27.6 1.8 96.4 81.4 45
46 << << 4.8 0.5 0.6 << 44.5 14.7 32.9 2.7 97.3 84.9 46
47 << << 5.9 0.6 0.8 << 48.8 17.5 38.5 3.9 98.0 87.9 47
48 << << 7.0 0.8 1.1 << 53.0 20.6 44.3 5.6 98.5 90.3 48
49 << << 8.4 1.1 1.5 << 57.1 23.9 50.0 7.6 98.9 92.4 49
50 << << 9.8 1.4 2.1 << 61.1 27.4 55.6 10.1 99.2 94.1 50
# of
Attacks
50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Attacks
w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh
Base (25% hit) Vigour Mortis (35% hit) Death Grip (50% hit)


Bite

# of
Attacks
Vigour Mortis (20% hit) Neck Lurch (30% hit) # of
Attacks
50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP
18 << << << << 18
19 << << 0.1 << 19
20 << << 0.1 << 20
21 << << 0.2 << 21
22 << << 0.4 << 22
23 << << 0.7 0.1 23
24 << << 1.2 0.1 24
25 << << 1.7 0.2 25
26 0.1 << 2.6 0.3 26
27 0.1 << 3.6 0.5 27
28 0.1 << 4.9 0.8 28
29 0.2 << 6.5 1.2 29
30 0.3 << 8.4 1.7 30
31 0.4 << 10.7 2.4 31
32 0.6 0.1 13.3 3.3 32
33 0.8 0.1 16.1 4.4 33
34 1.1 0.1 19.3 5.7 34
35 1.4 0.2 22.7 7.3 35
36 1.8 0.2 26.3 9.2 36
37 2.3 0.3 30.2 11.3 37
38 2.9 0.5 34.1 13.7 38
39 3.5 0.6 38.2 16.4 39
40 4.3 0.8 42.3 19.3 40
41 5.2 1.0 46.4 22.4 41
42 6.2 1.3 50.4 25.7 42
43 7.3 1.6 54.4 29.2 43
44 8.6 2.0 58.3 32.8 44
45 9.9 2.5 62.0 36.5 45
46 11.4 3.0 65.5 40.3 46
47 13.1 3.7 68.9 44.1 47
48 14.8 4.4 72.0 47.9 48
49 16.6 5.2 75.0 51.6 49
50 18.6 6.1 77.7 55.3 50
# of
Attacks
50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP # of
Attacks
Vigour Mortis (20% hit) Neck Lurch (30% hit)


Mathematics

How These Figures were Calculated

For any number of attacks a, the probability that a target will be killed PK, is given by the following formula, where PH is the chance to hit in one attack and h is the number of hits required to kill.

Probmath2.PNG

The tables themselves were constructed using a short javascript program.

Great, but is it Accurate?

To test the accuracy of this data, a simulation of tens of thousands of combats was conducted. Below is a typical extract of the data, representing 10,000 pistol combats with Basic Firearms Training, against each of four targets (with and without bodybuilding; with and without flak jackets), compared to the theoretical results:

# of
Shots
With Flak Jacket Without Flak Jacket # of
Shots
50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP
Actual Theory Actual Theory Actual Theory Actual Theory
20 5.4 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 << 20
30 40.9 41.1 15.7 15.9 8.6 8.4 1.8 1.7 30
40 80.8 80.4 56.3 55.9 42.2 42.3 19.1 19.3 40
50 96.2 96.0 86.6 86.1 78.3 77.7 55.5 55.3 50
Personal tools
advertisements