User:Karlsbad/Meta/Shotguns Don't Suck

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Meta-Kb #1: Shotguns Don't Suck!

Opening Statement

Alright, this is some math and analysis to prove that, well, the shotgun doesn't suck in which case we don't need to improve it, nerf the pistol, or insert a new "middle of the road" firearm.

Required Arguement

It is usually agreed the current proven search pattern in a unpowered and unransacked mall at full skills is about 11% for both pistol clips and shotgun shells. [the other numbers will arrive when they are researched]. Furthermore, this article requires that you also have full gun skills and average RNG results; even with RNG being the bitch that she is, we can not be sure of any important assertions being correct otherwise.

The Analysis

Searching

Therefore, if you were to only restock and reload when your firearms when they are absolutely empty, you would be able to find about 10 ammos in 45 AP, or say 40 for 180AP. Assuming a logical 50-50 split, that comes out to 20 shotgun shells and 20 pistol clips, or 20 Shotgun attacks and 120 Pistol attacks. It requires 20 AP to reload both into their containers, yet it only takes up 10 slots in the inventory to hold the shotguns while it requires 20 slots to hold the pistols. This effectively means that it takes away the potentional ultimate AP storage ability to be reasonably capped at a maximum amount of 220AP1. (While this is less considering the change of firearms found with Ammo already inside, we must consider that if you find a Pistol with a few remaining bullets in the chamber actually hurts your AP expendature, as you are not able to use these bullets without either wasting your Attack Capital by firing them at a fellow player or replacing them with a full clip, while for shotguns a less-than fully loaded shotgun is more useful, Attack-Captial wise, as an unloaded one, as it only would require half the AP to fully load the shotgun as we assume it does. which comes out convieniently to 10 shotguns and 20 Pistols, which I will from this point use as a base set up for our subject, John Q. Trenchcoat, Esquire.

Who is John Q. Trenchcoat?

Now, Johnny Q has a problem; when facing the all powerful zombie hordes, what should he use? Since he has already used up every single one of his inventory spaces, it is impossible to assume he will be able to heal himself or others with First Aid Kits (it is important to note that our base subject does not have to be intelligent, only interesting and informative). The 220AP to Subject Trenchcoat is termed in economics as a Sunk Cost, as in it is impossible to consider alternate options and spending procedures from the present point when the cost has already been used at a previous juncture. And furthermore, it would be inefficient to have Johnny Q Trenchcoat drop his found items, as that would be wasting an important resource, Attack Capital.

So, now that we can agree that our subject has 10 loaded shotguns, 20 loaded pistols, and anywhere from 1 to 50 AP. Our subject has limits, however. Unless he decides to live inside a zombie-occupied building, he must invest in at least 1 AP or as many as all of his AP into either barricading or running or both from a former safehouse to a new one. Therefore the limit can be concievably from negative 10 AP to 49AP (Surviving is tough, ain't it?) I use 12 AP because it takes 1 AP to move into a building and 10 [needs citation] AP to barricade a building to VS+2, and 1 AP because the RNG hates Trenchcoats.

Attacking Zombie(s)

It is the nature of Urban Dead that if John decideds to "patrol" his area, it is most likely that he will find a zombie or 10 inside a building. Now, if Johnny happens to discover such a group right next door to his EHB Police Department safehouse, he has a wonderful scenareo; he could use 1AP to enter that building, 10 AP to Barricade, and 1 AP to escape. This assumes a full AP, but it then means that there is at least 38 AP with which to spend shooting the faceless horde infront of our favorate Johnny Q. Trenchcoat. With his load out, this means that he could shoot 38 times with his pistols2, arriving at 98.8 against HMHMs or 123.5HP against a n00b Meanwhile, if he had decided to fire with his Shotguns, he is limited by his load-out and would only possess 20 shots. Therefore, he would have to attack 18 times with his pistol to make up for his limited maximum AP of Shotgun Investment, coming out to HMHM: 160.8HP or 188.5 against a n00b. Therefore, it is best to use his AP for the day by firing the shotgun first and after running out of ammo using the pistol. However, how does Johnny Q Trenchcoat best use this knowledge? Well, it is likely that you will have to eventually use a pistol, so it is best to fire against the top zombie in the stack with the pistol first to find if they are HMHMs or not, to best invest the 10HP shots against those that will only require a minmum 5 hits rather than 8 (or 7 and a Pistol Round).


Zombies Attacking(!)

However, what if Johnny wakes up one morning and finds himself with a single groaning zombie at his house? At that point, we can assume that the barracades are either broken down or close to it, and the zombie's groan is sure to attract attention from his non-breathing bretheran. Therefore, every AP spent not securing the safehouse (or running, but lets assume that we've got one brave Trenchcoat) is wasted, so you sohuld kill and dump the zombie in the most efficient way possible. This means that he should use his shotgun until the last shot, and use a pistol round last (conserving your Attack Capital), as he will only require about 10.77 shots of his shotgun and 1.54 shots of his pistol, or about 12.31 AP total plus 1 dump body check, leaving him a maximum average of ~36.69 AP with which to defend his safehouse, or run. When considering the chances of the zombie ?rising or Digesting to keep the door open, it is ulimately a win, for as long as you invest your first 4 or 5 APs in keeping the barricades to at least QS if not Lt, then you ensure that the combat will ulimately remain in your favor.

In Closing

Therefore, unless anyone has anything to add, it is my conclusion that the Shotgun is more than adequate as is as a weapon, and should therefore be un-messed with until such a time as to be outclassed by other weapons. Any arguements, interesting points, or valid complaints should be inserted to the discussion page and I would be happy to put them into the above article itself, as as a TYFYC.

Lexicon/Math

Highly Motivated Horde Member; this is a place holder that assumes that the zombie has Bodybuilding, Ransack, Full Attacks, Feeding Groan, a Flak Jacket, and an efficient zombie metagroup. While uncommon, they are the most dangerous type of zombie and therefore deserve their own catagory.
tyfyc: a usful acronim meaning Thank You For Your Contribution. Though most likely seen as a response to a tl;dr response, it is also used as a quick note of acknowledgement to any user which follows- at such times the acronim is commonly capitalized as a sign of respect, rather than lower-cased as a flippent response to an equally flippent response.
1 180 searches times 11% search rate equals ~20 Shells and 20 Clips, plus 40 AP Loading Cost
238 attacks times .65 hit percentage times 5/4 Damage
320 attacks times .65 hit percentage times 10/8 Damage plus 18 attacks times .65 hit percentage times 5/4 Damage

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