User:A Helpful Little Gnome/Sandbox899

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The Survivor / Zombie Ratio, December 2005 to April 2020. The Y axis shows the ratio of survivors to zombies, with the dashed horizontal line at 1:1 indicating an equal number of survivors to zombies. Above the line favours survivors (e.g., 2:1 means two survivors for every one zombie). Below the line favours zombies. The tick marks on the X axis indicate the start of the year named below. At each time point (day), the ratio is the number of survivors divided by the number of zombies, collected at the 0:00 hour of the day.1 The extra info on either side of the dashed horizontal line has some caveats.2 Data from Urban Dead statistics, April 2017 to current day. Older data from the Wayback Machine was collected manually.3 INTERPRETING THE GRAPHS The first graph is the snapshot and to-the-point. The graph below comes in three parts and goes more in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events. While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of game updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. Although often it seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is difficult or impossible to identify every player event or attribute a single update or event when multiples exist at the same time. There is much we don't know. Sometimes, however, an event will be so large as so large that it is undeniable that it caused a change in the ratio. That said, the purpose of the following in-depth graph is to chronicle the game balance over the years, without pointing too many fingers. blah blah blah common philosophies... Equal numbers of zombies and survivors. Zombies heavily outnumber survivors. Let it be (Laissez-faire). CAVEATS 1 Urban Dead's statistics updates its data on every hour of the day, yet characters only seem to idle out on the 00:00 hour of the day. This creates a "climbing" effect where the data increases throughout the day until it hits the 00:00 mark and drops. For simplicity, data from other timepoints were excluded. (Note that the Urban Dead statistics page missed its mark a few times, and thus on certain days the data was collected on the 00:01 and 0:02 timepoints.) 2 The percentage of days favouring either survivors or zombies was calculated by counting out the days when the ratio was above or below 1. The ratio never equals exactly 1, at least for the data shown here (see Caveat 1). To calculate the average ratio when the game favoured either survivors or zombies, the data was cut into two parts: one with the ratio above 1 (survivor favoured) and the other with the ratio below 1 (zombie favoured). Keep in mind, error exists because the data is sporadic before April 2007 (see Caveat 3). 3 The graphs on this page only contain 28 data points before late April 2007 and 4,732 points afterward. You can see the effect this has on the graph of the Survivor-Zombie Ratio due to the oddly straight lines, as opposed to the "noisy" line thereafter. On the in-depth graph below, all the columns of white space are locations of missing data. When calculating the facts discussed in Caveat 2, the results heavily weigh the graph later than April 2007; there's simply more data there that "drowns out" the scant data before it. Thus, these facts are an approximation. One final caveat: this page is mostly the opinion of one person. While he has played the game almost continuously since September 2006 and paid attention to popular opinion, any analysis beyond the strictly factual has an incomplete perspective and its own, specific interpretation. WHY ISN'T [INSERT EVENT HERE] ON THE GRAPH? It's possible that I missed an important game event (and it should be included). It's also important to reduce the number of events and game updates on the page. Some of the simpler or cosmetic game updates are not mentioned, such as bug fixes, server upgrades, and unofficial changes (example). EARLY DAY VOLATILITY Plot of Survivor and Zombie populations. 2005 to 2006. This period is characterized by...  2005 July 3rd. Urban Dead goes live. Between now and October 27th: Survivors can speak and zombies have begun to make noises. Wirecutters have a use and survivors can jump out of windows. Zergers are now punished semi-automatically. Survivors only get half the XP for attacking each other, compared to attacking zombies. First Aid Kits can be used on other players, and DNA Extractors on zombies. Survivors have begun tagging buildings with messages, as well as barricading them. Survivors have gotten tougher. Players may begin the game as a corpse. New zombies move more slowly, requiring 2AP without the Lurching Gait skill. They also forgot how to open doors. Dead bodies can now be dumped out of buildings. Experienced survivors are hunting zombies. All survivors are also getting better at hitting zombies, which now need 10 AP to stand up again. Players now have a contact list. Headshots reduce some XP, instead of removing all of it. October 27th. First Siege of Caiger Mall. Game statistics first available. November 4th. Profiles are now editable. November 18th & 22nd. The power is on. Survivors are now hooking up buildings with generators, which doctors are using to perform surgery. A few days later, the mobile phone network reactivated. 2006 December 19th, 22nd, & 30th. Another change to headshot serves as a launching point for players to go On Strike. Later in the month, Kevan adds feeding groan and opens large buildings to movement. January 3rd. & 19th. Stemming from the protests last month, Malton's first mall tour forms. Hundreds of zombies storm the city's malls and brings them to ruin. Under the cover of battle, scientist discover how to revive brain rotten zombies. February 3rd & 4th. Tangling Grasp is added. The Mall Tour '06 sets its sights on Caiger Mall, leading to an exhausting siege that ends in a zombie defeat as March closes. March 9th. Zombies can now recognize the groans of members of their own horde. March 28th. Syringe nerf. Revivifying zombies takes 10 AP, up from 1. April 28th. Some of the more belligerent (or forward-thinking) zombies have begun ransacking buildings. Survivors have finally figured out how to shine the light in powered buildings to where the loot is, improving search odds. June 1st, 3rd & 6th. A series of communication-related updates give a use to handheld radios but restrict the 26.00 - 28.00 MHz band toskilled operators. Zombies can smell distant hordes and bodies. June 16th. Critically-wounded (12 HP or below) survivors are now at risk of being dragged from buildings by hungry zombies. Ransacked buildings must now be cleared of zombies before survivors can barricade them. July 3rd. Following in the footsteps of last year's strike and the mall tour, the first Big Bash forms, eating the eastern and southern portions of Malton before blending with the next year's mall tour. July 18th. DNA-Extractors provide profile info and allow the survivor to immediately revive the zombie. August 18th. Survivors gain an unlikely foothold in the zombie homeland of Ridleybank, turning into a two month siege, the Battle of Blackmore, at the suburb's only NecroTech Building. Although frequently outnumbering the zombies, the survivors eventually succumbed to a coordinated attack on October the 13th. October 23rd. Caiger Mall falls to zombies for the first time. October 31st. Malton's first fog. Players cannot see outside their current location until dawn tomorrow. November 20th. The external military repairs Malton's two forts, patching holes in the walls and leaving the only entrances at the gatehouse. THE SWINGS Plot of Survivor and Zombie populations. 2007 to Mid 2011.  2007 January 14th, 19th & February 3rd. Mall Tour '07 begins. The zombie sniffer gets enhanced. New skills allow zombies detect infected survivors and locate nearby members of their horde. In early February, zombies get XP for taking down barricades, ransacking buildings, and destroying machinery. March 6th. Survivors begin the useless pastime of collecting and exhibiting museum decorations. April 8th & 20th. The Battle of Santlerville, which lasts deep into May, sweeps the suburb... until the zombie invasion disperses in defeat. Some quality of life changes to profiles allow, among other things, for survivors to auto-discard unwanted items. May 31st. Survivors start wearing clothing, ending an era of dangly bits for zombies to grab hold of. June 18th. Yahoo publishes an article on Urban Dead, prompting over 10,000 players to join in days. Clueless level 1 survivors wander the streets, eaten and idling out in the coming weeks. July 29th. Though easily mistaken for a typo, zombies clench the Battle of SantLUEville in victory. August 14th & 24th. The more territorial zombies can ruin buildings, needing a toolbox to repair. By next week, even the more agile survivors are slipping on the rubble of ruined buildings, preventing freerunning. Survivors tuning into the right channel can now catch external military reports. October 10th. The Second Big Bash begins, again wrecking the city's eastern and southern regions.  2008 January 2nd & 23rd. The Second Big Bash hits a month long siege at Pitneybank. A controversial game update in the third week of fighting, barricade interference, makes holding Giddings Mall and other tactical locations against the zombie beachheads untenable. February 25th & 28th. While a second city, Monroeville, opens, a massive, world-ending horde fuelled by an external forum marches on the city. The survivor population drops to 31%, the lowest to-date. March 28th. Monroeville is quarantined, blocking character creation. Headshot becomes permanent. May 28th. Decay sets in, making ruined buildings more costly to repair. June 13th. Monroeville reopens, closing forever only four weeks later. August 25th. Only 100 survivors remain in Monroeville. October 14th. Zombies get the flesh rot skill, digestion, and mall FAK rates are nerfed. October 28th. Borehamwood, another playable map, opens. November 28th. A month later, Borehamwood closes forever.  2009 January 9th. Mall Tour '09 begins and end up wrecking most of Malton's malls. February 7th. The last 100 survivors in Borehamwood pick their way through the rubble and empty countryside. July 3rd. Groans made inside closed doors are now muffled to careful listeners. Survivors have found the old, Emergency Broadcast System hidden in the Coram Building.  2010 June 1st & 3rd. Hundreds of players congregate at Ellicott Place Railway Station, adjacent Malton's border. The plan: Escape. The outcome: nothing in particular. Shortly after, The Big Bash 3 begins shambling across the city, suburb by suburb. August 16th. The last game mechanics update. Survivors receive a niche, rarely useful skill: Scout Safehouse. Zombies also receive a niche, though slightly more useful skill: Bellow.  2011 March 27th (ish). The world almost ends again. The Dead march on Malton for a second time, leading to the most drastic population inequality in Malton's (recorded) history.* Survivor numbers plummeted to its lowest in mid May, settling at 15%. Efforts to reduce this percentage even lower, preferably to 0%, were met with massive resistance from a key game mechanic: syringe search rates depend on the survivor-zombie ratio. The low relative abundance of survivors allowed them to easily find syringes, even in ruined NecroTechs. Eventually, The Dead lost steam, leading to The Long Tail.      * Technically, the first day of Malton's history (July 3rd, 2005) would have favoured survivors completely, as initially         players could not start the game as corpses until mid July. THE LONG TAIL Plot of Survivor and Zombie populations. Mid 2011 to 2020.  2011 (continued) October 3rd. Malton's last mall tour. Although tempered by the relatively low number of active players available to take part, the tour manages to munch on most of Malton's malls.  2012 The first year in Urban Dead's history when nothing in particular happens. At least according to this graph, anyway.  2013 June 1st. The Big Bash 4. The last Bash actually, and the last mega horde, and the last player event recorded here for that matter...  2014 Another year of little to nothing occurring. Late in the year the ratio converges together, nearly becoming balanced. Yet the reason is unknown. Perhaps it was spontaneous, or someone forgot to record the event responsible for it. It leaves this author to question whether the ratio can move meaningfully on its own; that is, favouring zombies or survivors above the day-to-day "noise".  2015 July 3rd. On Urban Dead's birthday, Kevan opens up the State of the Apocalypse Survey. The survey asked what suggestions you would add, the flavour and gameplay changes you are interested in, and what you like best and least. The results were never officially released, nor leaked surreptitiously. Kevan never appeared to act on the results, so far as anyone can tell.  2016 Little happens this year. The ratio converges to equality in July, but once again the reason is unclear.  2017 The year is uneventful until November, when one of the clearest examples of zerging is seen. It is so obvious that it can be seen from space (i.e., this graph). Zombies numbers spike roughly 1,300 over two days, then plummet on the third. Levels of normal and revivifying bodies remain untouched, as do survivors, suggesting the zombies were banned en masse.  2018  2019  2020 At mid February, for the first (legitimate) time since the Dead's second march in 2011, the ratio favours zombies. Nevertheless, the shift towards zombies is small and survivors regain their ground in April.