User:A Helpful Little Gnome/Sandbox899: Difference between revisions
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| width="40px" style="border-right:solid 1px darkslategrey;color:white" | ........... || style='padding-left:10px' | [[File:Survivor-Zombie Ratio.png]] | | width="40px" style="border-right:solid 1px darkslategrey;color:white" | ........... || style='padding-left:10px' | [[File:Survivor-Zombie Ratio.png]] | ||
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<Big><big><big>'''INTERPRETING THE GRAPHS'''</BIG></big></big> | <Big><big><big>'''INTERPRETING THE GRAPHS'''</BIG></big></big> | ||
The first graph is the snapshot and to-the-point. The graph below comes in three parts and goes more in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events. While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of game updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. | The first graph is the snapshot and to-the-point. The graph below comes in three parts and goes more in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events.<sup>4</sup> While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of game updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. | ||
Although often it seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is difficult or impossible to identify every player event or attribute a single update or event when multiples exist at the same time. There is much we don't know. Sometimes, however, an event will be so large as [[March of The Dead 2|so large]] that it is undeniable that it caused a change in the ratio. | Although often it seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is difficult or impossible to identify every player event or attribute a single update or event when multiples exist at the same time. There is much we don't know. Sometimes, however, an event will be so large as [[March of The Dead 2|so large]] that it is undeniable that it caused a change in the ratio. | ||
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|<big><big>CAVEATS</big></big> | |<big><big>CAVEATS</big></big> | ||
<sup>1</sup> Urban Dead's statistics updates its data on every hour of the day, yet characters only seem to [[idle|idle out]] on the 00:00 hour of the day. This creates a "climbing" effect where the data increases throughout the day until it hits the 00:00 mark and drops. For simplicity, data from other timepoints were excluded. (Note that the Urban Dead statistics page missed its mark a few times, and thus on certain days the data was collected on the 00:01 and 0:02 timepoints.) | {| | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>1</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' | Urban Dead's statistics updates its data on every hour of the day, yet characters only seem to [[idle|idle out]] on the 00:00 hour of the day. This creates a "climbing" effect where the data increases throughout the day until it hits the 00:00 mark and drops. For simplicity, data from other timepoints were excluded. (Note that the Urban Dead statistics page missed its mark a few times, and thus on certain days the data was collected on the 00:01 and 0:02 timepoints.) | |||
<sup>2</sup> The percentage of days favouring either survivors or zombies was calculated by counting out the days when the ratio was above or below 1. The ratio never equals exactly 1, at least for the data shown here (see Caveat 1). To calculate the average ratio when the game favoured either survivors or zombies, the data was cut into two parts: one with the ratio above 1 (survivor favoured) and the other with the ratio below 1 (zombie favoured). Keep in mind, error exists because the data is sporadic before April 2007 (see Caveat 3). | |- | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>2</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The percentage of days favouring either survivors or zombies was calculated by counting out the days when the ratio was above or below 1. The ratio never equals exactly 1, at least for the data shown here (see Caveat 1). To calculate the average ratio when the game favoured either survivors or zombies, the data was cut into two parts: one with the ratio above 1 (survivor favoured) and the other with the ratio below 1 (zombie favoured). Keep in mind, error exists because the data is sporadic before April 2007 (see Caveat 3). | |||
<sup>3</sup> The graphs on this page only contain 28 data points before late April 2007 and 4,732 points afterward. You can see the effect this has on the graph of the Survivor-Zombie Ratio due to the oddly straight lines, as opposed to the "noisy" line thereafter. On the in-depth graph below, all the columns of white space are locations of missing data. When calculating the facts discussed in Caveat 2, the results heavily weigh the graph later than April 2007; there's simply more data there that "drowns out" the scant data before it. Thus, these facts are an approximation. | |- | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>3</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The graphs on this page only contain 28 data points before late April 2007 and 4,732 points afterward. You can see the effect this has on the graph of the Survivor-Zombie Ratio due to the oddly straight lines, as opposed to the "noisy" line thereafter. On the in-depth graph below, all the columns of white space are locations of missing data. When calculating the facts discussed in Caveat 2, the results heavily weigh the graph later than April 2007; there's simply more data there that "drowns out" the scant data before it. Thus, these facts are an approximation. | |||
One final caveat: this page is mostly the opinion of [[User:A Helpful Little Gnome|one person]]. While he has played the game almost continuously since September 2006 and paid attention to popular opinion, any analysis beyond the strictly factual has an incomplete perspective and its own, specific interpretation. | |- | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>4</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The scales are different on each part of the graph, which helps readability when the player populations become smaller. | |||
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| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | || style='padding-top:5px' |One final caveat: this page is mostly the opinion of [[User:A Helpful Little Gnome|one person]]. While he has played the game almost continuously since September 2006 and paid attention to popular opinion, any analysis beyond the strictly factual has an incomplete perspective and its own, specific interpretation. | |||
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<BIG><BIG><BIG>'''EARLY DAY VOLATILITY'''</BIG></BIG></BIG><br><big>Plot of <font color='#98c1d9'>'''Survivor'''</font> and <font color='#8bd08b'>'''Zombie'''</font> populations. <br>2005 to 2006.</big> | <BIG><BIG><BIG>'''EARLY DAY VOLATILITY'''</BIG></BIG></BIG><br><big>Plot of <font color='#98c1d9'>'''Survivor'''</font> and <font color='#8bd08b'>'''Zombie'''</font> populations. <br>2005 to 2006.</big> | ||
<div style="width:560px;text-align:justify">The first year or so of Urban Dead's history was marked by rapid game updates, establishing fundamental mechanics that flattened the ratio close to equality. These changes came quickly on the heels of social upheaval, the kind consisting of protests, violent riots, and roaming zombie hordes. It was an energetic, though uncertain time.</div> | |||
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| width='100px;position:absolute' | [[File:oneone.png|560px]][[File:onetwo.png|560px]] || style="vertical-align: top; width:600px;position:absolute" | | | width='100px;position:absolute' | [[File:oneone.png|560px]][[File:onetwo.png|560px]] || style="vertical-align: top; width:600px;position:absolute" | | ||
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| '''June 1st, 3rd & 6th.''' A series of communication-related updates give a use to [[radio|handheld radios]] but restrict the 26.00 - 28.00 MHz band to[[Radio_operators#Radio_Operation|skilled operators]]. Zombies can [[Zombie Skills/Scent Death|smell]] distant hordes and bodies. | | '''June 1st, 3rd & 6th.''' A series of communication-related updates give a use to [[radio|handheld radios]] but restrict the 26.00 - 28.00 MHz band to [[Radio_operators#Radio_Operation|skilled operators]]. Zombies can [[Zombie Skills/Scent Death|smell]] distant hordes and bodies. | ||
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|<br><BIG><BIG><BIG>'''THE SWINGS'''</BIG></BIG></BIG><br><big>Plot of <font color='#98c1d9'>'''Survivor'''</font> and <font color='#8bd08b'>'''Zombie'''</font> populations. <br>2007 to Mid 2011.</big> | |<br><BIG><BIG><BIG>'''THE SWINGS'''</BIG></BIG></BIG><br><big>Plot of <font color='#98c1d9'>'''Survivor'''</font> and <font color='#8bd08b'>'''Zombie'''</font> populations. <br>2007 to Mid 2011.</big> | ||
<div style="width:560px;text-align:justify">While the ratio tries to stabilize at 3:2 in favour of survivors, zombie mega hordes swing the ratio back in favour of zombies... mainly by eating the humans. At the same time, crucial zombie game updates fed into the potency of coordinated zombies in sieges and in holding territory. Hence, "The Swings." </div> | |||
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| width='100px' | [[File:twoone.png|560px]][[File:twotwo.png|560px]][[File:twothree.png|560px]][[File:twofour.png|560px]] || style="vertical-align: top;padding-top:65px;width:600px;position:absolute" | | | width='100px' | [[File:twoone.png|560px]][[File:twotwo.png|560px]][[File:twothree.png|560px]][[File:twofour.png|560px]] || style="vertical-align: top;padding-top:65px;width:600px;position:absolute" | | ||
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|<span style='line-height:10px'>'''May 28th.''' [[Decay]] sets in, making ruined buildings more costly to repair.</span> | |<span style='line-height:10px'>'''May 28th.''' [[Decay]] sets in, making ruined buildings more costly to repair.</span> | ||
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{| style='padding-top: | {| style='padding-top:57px' | ||
|'''August 25th.''' Only [[The Monroeville 100|100 survivors remain in Monroeville]]. | |'''August 25th.''' Only [[The Monroeville 100|100 survivors remain in Monroeville]]. | ||
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|<br><BIG><BIG><BIG>'''THE LONG TAIL'''</BIG></BIG></BIG><br><big>Plot of <font color='#98c1d9'>'''Survivor'''</font> and <font color='#8bd08b'>'''Zombie'''</font> populations. <br>Mid 2011 to 2020.</big> | |<br><BIG><BIG><BIG>'''THE LONG TAIL'''</BIG></BIG></BIG><br><big>Plot of <font color='#98c1d9'>'''Survivor'''</font> and <font color='#8bd08b'>'''Zombie'''</font> populations. <br>Mid 2011 to 2020.</big> | ||
<div style="width:560px;text-align:justify">The lack of player events and game updates stagnates the game. It also provides convincing evidence that the "default" ratio is about three survivors for every zombie, or about 60% survivors and 40% zombies. That is, unless something disrupts it.</div> | |||
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| width='100px' | [[File:threeone.png|560px]][[File:threetwo.png|560px]][[File:threethree.png|560px]][[File:threefour.png|560px]][[File:threefive.png|560px]][[File:threesix.png|560px]] || style="vertical-align: top; width:600px;position:absolute" | | | width='100px' | [[File:threeone.png|560px]][[File:threetwo.png|560px]][[File:threethree.png|560px]][[File:threefour.png|560px]][[File:threefive.png|560px]][[File:threesix.png|560px]] || style="vertical-align: top; width:600px;position:absolute" | |
Revision as of 02:30, 3 June 2020
[toc]
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The Survivor / Zombie Ratio, December 2005 to April 2020. Data from Urban Dead statistics, April 2017 to current day. Older data from the Wayback Machine was collected manually.3
The first graph is the snapshot and to-the-point. The graph below comes in three parts and goes more in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events.4 While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of game updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. Although often it seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is difficult or impossible to identify every player event or attribute a single update or event when multiples exist at the same time. There is much we don't know. Sometimes, however, an event will be so large as so large that it is undeniable that it caused a change in the ratio. That said, the purpose of the following in-depth graph is to chronicle the game balance over the years, without pointing too many fingers. blah blah blah common philosophies...
EARLY DAY VOLATILITY The first year or so of Urban Dead's history was marked by rapid game updates, establishing fundamental mechanics that flattened the ratio close to equality. These changes came quickly on the heels of social upheaval, the kind consisting of protests, violent riots, and roaming zombie hordes. It was an energetic, though uncertain time.
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