User:A Helpful Little Gnome/Sandbox899: Difference between revisions
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The Y axis shows the ratio of survivors to zombies, with the dashed horizontal line at 1:1 indicating an equal number of survivors to zombies. Above the line favours survivors (e.g., 2:1 means two survivors for every one zombie). Below the line favours zombies. The tick marks on the X axis indicate the start of the year named below. At each time point (day), the ratio is the number of survivors divided by the number of zombies, collected at the 0:00 hour of the day.<sup>1</sup> The extra info on either side of the dashed horizontal line has some caveats.<sup>2</sup> | The Y axis shows the ratio of survivors to zombies, with the dashed horizontal line at 1:1 indicating an equal number of survivors to zombies. Above the line favours survivors (e.g., 2:1 means two survivors for every one zombie). Below the line favours zombies. The tick marks on the X axis indicate the start of the year named below. At each time point (day), the ratio is the number of survivors divided by the number of zombies, collected at the 0:00 hour of the day.<sup>1</sup> The extra info on either side of the dashed horizontal line has some caveats.<sup>2</sup> | ||
Data from [http://www.urbandead.com/stats.csv Urban Dead statistics], April 2017 to current day. Older data from the [[Wikipedia:Wayback Machine|Wayback Machine]] was collected manually.<sup>3</sup> | Data obtained from [http://www.urbandead.com/stats.csv Urban Dead statistics], April 2017 to current day. Older data from the [[Wikipedia:Wayback Machine|Wayback Machine]] was collected manually.<sup>3</sup> | ||
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The first graph shows the survivor-zombie ratio. The graph below shows the absolute survivor and zombie populations in a series of three parts: Early Day Volatility (EDV), The Swings (TW), and The Long Tail (TLT).<sup>4</sup> These graphs go in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events. While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of the updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. | The first graph shows the survivor-zombie ratio. The graph below shows the absolute survivor and zombie populations in a series of three parts: Early Day Volatility (EDV), The Swings (TW), and The Long Tail (TLT).<sup>4</sup> These graphs go in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events. While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of the updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. | ||
An underlying assumption is that the ratio | An underlying assumption is that the ratio only changes if a force acts on it, be it a game update or player event. Although it often seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is impossible to identify all player events occurring at a given time; not all have been [[:Category:History|written into history]]. And given a specific time point, multiple events could be happening at the same time. How do we determine the degree to which each event influenced the ratio? | ||
Sometimes, however, an event is [[March of The Dead 2|so large]] that it undeniably caused a change in the ratio. Call it a [[Wikipedia:natural experiment|natural experiment]]. | Sometimes, however, an event is [[March of The Dead 2|so large]] that it undeniably caused a change in the ratio. Call it a [[Wikipedia:natural experiment|natural experiment]]. | ||
All that said, '''the purpose of the following in-depth graph is to chronicle the game balance over the years, without pointing too many fingers.''' | All that said, '''the purpose of the following in-depth graph is to chronicle the game balance over the years, without pointing too many fingers.''' | ||
<big><big>CAVEATS</big></big> | |||
{| | {| | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>1</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' | Urban Dead's statistics updates its data on every hour of the day, yet characters only seem to [[idle|idle out]] on the 00:00 hour of the day. This creates a "climbing" effect where the data increases throughout the day until it hits the 00:00 mark and drops. For simplicity, data from other timepoints were excluded. (Note that the Urban Dead statistics page missed its mark a few times, and thus on certain days the data was collected on the 00:01 and 0:02 timepoints.) | | width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>1</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' | Urban Dead's statistics updates its data on every hour of the day, yet characters only seem to [[idle|idle out]] on the 00:00 hour of the day. This creates a "climbing" effect where the data increases throughout the day until it hits the 00:00 mark and drops. For simplicity, data from other timepoints were excluded. (Note that the Urban Dead statistics page missed its mark a few times, and thus on certain days the data was collected on the 00:01 and 0:02 timepoints.) | ||
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| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>2</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The percentage of days favouring either survivors or zombies was calculated by counting out the days when the ratio was above or below 1. The ratio never equals exactly 1, at least for the data shown here (see Caveat 1). To calculate the average ratio when the game favoured either survivors or zombies, the data was cut into two parts: one with the ratio above 1 (survivor favoured) and the other with the ratio below 1 (zombie favoured). Keep in mind, error exists because the data is sporadic before April 2007 (see Caveat 3). | | width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>2</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The percentage of days favouring either survivors or zombies was calculated by counting out the days when the ratio was above or below 1. The ratio never equals exactly 1, at least for the data shown here (see Caveat 1). To calculate the average ratio when the game favoured either survivors or zombies, the data was cut into two parts: one with the ratio above 1 (survivor favoured) and the other with the ratio below 1 (zombie favoured). Keep in mind, error exists because the data is sporadic before April 2007 (see Caveat 3). | ||
|- | |- | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>3</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' | | | width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>3</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |Only 28 data points are plotted before late April 2007; 4,732 points are plotted afterward. You can see the effect this has on the graph of the Survivor-Zombie Ratio due to the oddly straight lines, as opposed to the "noisy" line thereafter. On the in-depth graph below, all the columns of white space are locations of missing data. When calculating the facts discussed in Caveat 2, the data is more heavily weighed after April 2007; there's simply more data there that "drowns out" the scant data before it. Thus, these facts are an approximation. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>4</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The scales are different on each part of the graph, which helps readability when the player populations become smaller. | | width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | <sup>4</sup> || style='padding-top:5px' |The scales are different on each part of the graph, which helps readability when the player populations become smaller. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | || style='padding-top:5px' |One final caveat: this page is mostly the opinion of [[User:A Helpful Little Gnome|one person]]. | | width='5px' style='vertical-align:top' | || style='padding-top:5px' |One final caveat: this page is mostly the opinion of [[User:A Helpful Little Gnome|one person]]. | ||
|} | |} | ||
The | <big><big>WHY ISN'T [INSERT EVENT HERE] ON THE GRAPH?</big></big> | ||
The graph maker may have missed an important game event (and it should be included). But it's also important to minimize the number of events and game updates on the page, as there's only so much room available. Larger scale events, such as roaming hordes and "big picture" moments in history (e.g., protests) are typically included. While some events clearly had no impact on the ratio, such as [[The Big Bash 4]], they are still listed here. This is mainly included for the reader's interest, since the earlier versions of events tended to have a stronger impact. | |||
A few [[cities|second city]] events are included for interest, even though their respective populations are not present in [[Malton|Malton's]] statistics. Some of the simpler or cosmetic game updates are also not mentioned, such as bug fixes, server upgrades, and unofficial changes ([[News/2005#December_18|example]]). | |||
Revision as of 04:32, 18 June 2020
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The Survivor / Zombie Ratio, December 2005 to April 2020. Data obtained from Urban Dead statistics, April 2017 to current day. Older data from the Wayback Machine was collected manually.3
INTERPRETING THE GRAPHS The first graph shows the survivor-zombie ratio. The graph below shows the absolute survivor and zombie populations in a series of three parts: Early Day Volatility (EDV), The Swings (TW), and The Long Tail (TLT).4 These graphs go in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events. While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of the updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. An underlying assumption is that the ratio only changes if a force acts on it, be it a game update or player event. Although it often seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is impossible to identify all player events occurring at a given time; not all have been written into history. And given a specific time point, multiple events could be happening at the same time. How do we determine the degree to which each event influenced the ratio? Sometimes, however, an event is so large that it undeniably caused a change in the ratio. Call it a natural experiment. All that said, the purpose of the following in-depth graph is to chronicle the game balance over the years, without pointing too many fingers.
CAVEATS
WHY ISN'T [INSERT EVENT HERE] ON THE GRAPH? The graph maker may have missed an important game event (and it should be included). But it's also important to minimize the number of events and game updates on the page, as there's only so much room available. Larger scale events, such as roaming hordes and "big picture" moments in history (e.g., protests) are typically included. While some events clearly had no impact on the ratio, such as The Big Bash 4, they are still listed here. This is mainly included for the reader's interest, since the earlier versions of events tended to have a stronger impact. A few second city events are included for interest, even though their respective populations are not present in Malton's statistics. Some of the simpler or cosmetic game updates are also not mentioned, such as bug fixes, server upgrades, and unofficial changes (example).
EARLY DAY VOLATILITY The first year or so of Urban Dead's history was marked by rapid game updates, establishing fundamental mechanics that flattened the ratio close to equality. These changes came quickly on the heels of social upheaval, the kind consisting of protests, violent riots, and roaming zombie hordes. It was an energetic, though uncertain time.
CONCLUSION The ratio stabilized as time went on. By The Long Tail, there were three survivors for every two zombies. (To be precise, it's an average of 1.55 survivors per zombie over the entire game history.) Is this a sign of game imbalance? What things should look like is each person's opinion, grouped as follows.
The opinion of this author: the ratio favours survivors because they have more things to do and are more fun. The actual game mechanics are secondary to this. It could be that while survivors might be more AP efficient overall, efficiency isn't the only reason why players play the side they play (check out "See Also" below). And it is debatable that survivors are more AP efficient overall, as many factors need to be considered. While a shotgun objectively has a higher hit rate and damage over claws, search rates, movement, reloading, opportunity costs, and situation are also relevant.
SEE ALSO
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