User:Midianian/Archives/Rants/RE:Revival Imbalance
Introtuction
This is my response to Grim's rant on Revival Imbalance.
New Numbers
To get even some kind of accuracy into the estimates for how many humans have different skills, I went into the nearest mall. I chose a mall because that gives a lot of profiles, quick, and without too much work. The following survey is made from the inhabitants of Bale Mall:
- Total number of humans: 154
- With Lurching Gait: 99
- With Ankle Grab: 88
- With Body Building: 115
Changes to Grim's Numbers
From the numbers above:
- 64.3% of people have Lurching Gait
- 3.9 out of 11 don't have Lurching Gait
- 57.1% of people have Ankle Grab
- 4.7 out of 11 don't have Ankle Grab
- 74.6% of people have Body Building
- The average HP rises to 57.46 HP
For the zombies, the casualties stay at 11 (11.3), but at a raised cost of 368.7 AP, rounded to 369.
- Zombie AP used: 490
For the survivors, the cost of standing up rises to 3.9 * 10 + 7.1 = 46, and the cost of walking to the revive point rises to 4.7 * 3 * 2 + 6.3 * 3 = 47.
- Human AP used: 351
Additional Costs
However, there are some things Grim didn't take into account:
- All zombies are assumed dead, but survivors do not kill them.
- Breaking down the barricades was included, but not building them.
- Survivors are all at hull health when the zombies attack, but do not heal themselves after revival.
- Powered NTs are assumed, but don't include the cost of powering it.
First the dead zombies. I'm not going to calculate how much it takes to kill them because there wouldn't be much point in that, as it would be hard to put into perspective with the other numbers. Instead, I'm going to remove the stand up costs for zombies. This way, the chance to get headshot can also be ignored.
Grim calculated the cost of standing up as 37AP.
- Total zombie AP used: 453
Neither am I going to calculate the AP needed to power the NT, because it gets too complicated, mainly because of the following questions:
- How many times a generator will be re-fueled on average before it is destroyed and has to be replaced?
- How many syringes will be found during the time one can of fuel lasts?
This would give the cost of powering the NT per syringe found, but I cannot make an accurate guess of either of those numbers, so I'm just going to ignore this.
Constructing EHB+2 barricades cost, with numbers taken from here, with the change of assuming a chance of 100% for the first two levels because of the scant data. Those levels wouldn't make a noticeable difference anyway. The data on constructing EHB level 'cades is also scant. I originally miscalculated these numbers and apologize for that.
- None: 1 / 1 = 1
- Loose: 1 / 1 = 1
- Light: 3 / 0.996 = 3.01
- Quite Strong: 3 / 0.974 = 3.08
- Very Strong: 3 / 0.850 = 3.53
- Heavy: 3 / 0.624 = 4.81
- Very Heavy: 3 / 0.373 = 8.04
- Extremely Heavy: 2 / 0.196 = 10.20
- Total AP used on constructing barricades: 34.67, rounded to 35
- Used human AP: 386
For simplicity's sake, I'm going to assume the survivors have First Aid (or that they get healed by someone else with First Aid), and that the FAKs were searched beforehand in a powered hospital, and that the healing happens somewhere other than a powered hospital.
As the average HP of humans was raised to 57.46, the average HP needed to be healed will be 57.46 / 2 = 28.73. The total HP to be healed is 28.73 * 11 = 316.03. To heal this, 316.03 / 10 = 31.6, rounded to 32 FAKs will be needed.
Applying those FAKs will take 32AP.
- Used human AP: 417
Searching those FAKs will take, according to this, 32 / 0.14 = 228.57, rounded to 229 AP.
- Total used human AP: 647
- Difference to the zombies' that were already standing: 194
- Difference to the zombies' that had to stand up: 157
Alternatively, assuming the FAKs were searched for in a powered mall puts the searching cost at 32 / 0.34 = 94.12, rounded to 94.
- Alternative total used human AP: 512
- Difference to zombies' that were already standing: 59
- Difference to zombies' that had to stand up: 22
Further Comments
As Grim said "[Grim's rant] has the tendancy to minimise zombie AP expendature while at the same time maximising the human AP costs...". Continuing that lead to a 194 AP difference in favor of the zombies, but making a bit more reasonable choices cut it down to 59 and 22 AP. As a part of the revived survivors would get healed inside a powered hospital, that'd bring the difference even lower.
Also, I don't know how well the inhabitants of Bale Mall represent the average survivor. To enter the mall they need to have Free Running, so they're going to be slightly higher-level than the average survivor. Or scouts.
Errata
- The data used for FAK find rates appears to be outdated. The actual find rate in a powered mall is most likely 50%. This makes for a 30 AP difference in favor of survivors.
- But the 30AP is only when assuming they all have Shopping and Bargain Hunting. That's something I could not research in a mall, as people in a mall are more likely to have those skills. Researching that outside of malls is too much work.
- The data for syringe find rates also appears to be outdated. The actual find rate is more likely to be around 17.5%. This page uses the original data Grim used (12.4%). This makes for a 26 AP difference in favor of survivors.
- I did not take into account for survivors with enough XP to buy either Lurching Gait or Ankle Grab. I researched that later and it would make a 12 AP difference in favor of survivors. Details can be found here.
- But the 12 AP is only when assuming all of those with enough XP would be ready spend it on the zombie skills.
