User:Rupert

I am a stats junkie. I wrote my own Javascript/PHP page that scrapes search results from the HTML as I play Urban Dead.

News

No updates, most of my alts are dead. --Rupert 06:37, 18 March 2008 (UTC)

Cool! Bargain Hunting doubles your odds of finding something in a mall, even if the mall is ruined! This means the best place to find first aid kits when everything is ruined is still a mall. A ruined mall beats a lit hospital. Ha! --Rupert 04:01, 20 March 2008 (UTC)

Most of my alts are now revived. I'm seeing some strange things with the odds since The Dead have trashed most of Malton. On March 24 all my alts suddenly had an obscene success rate for finding syringes. And what's with the high success rate in dark malls? --Rupert 05:48, 27 March 2008 (UTC)

I continue to find First Aid Kits at an amazing rate. --Rupert 03:08, 28 March 2008 (UTC)

No updates. Stopped playing when The Dead were around because I felt the changes to the game's search odds were a violation of the spirit of the game. Let The Dead win, Kevan, don't change the search odds in an attempt to stop them. I've been playing again lately, as zombies, and it's fun. No searching though. I've been collecting stats on zombie attack rates instead (debarricading, equipment smashing, mauling, biting). If anyone resurrects any of my alts, I'll look into the new drug store search odds. I hope the drastic reduction is true. --Rupert 21:24, 16 October 2008 (BST)

The odds of finding a syringe have dropped:

item	percent	AP	building	inside	cond	lights	shopping	bargain
syringe (now)	8.71%	11.48 AP	necrotech	in	okay	lit	-	-
syringe (old)	12.58%	7.95 AP	necrotech	in	okay	lit	-	-
first-aid kit (now)	19.69%	5.08 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	bargain
	18.23%	5.48 AP	hospital	in	okay	lit	-	-
first-aid kit (old)	56.08%	1.78 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	bargain
	17.87%	5.60 AP	hospital	in	okay	lit	-	-

--Rupert 22:43, 20 November 2008 (UTC)

The odds of finding a syringe are back up to 13%. Generators don't make any difference. I added Confidence Intervals to my data. Consider the binomial likelihood function: L = (n choose y) * p^(y) * (1-p)^(n-y), where n is the number of searches, y is the number of successes, p is the predicted search rate and L is the likelihood that the predicted search rate is correct. To compute the 50% confidence interval I throw away the first and last 25% of the area under the curve. This interval contains 50% of the likelihood. If p=10% and the 50% confidence interval is -1/+2 then there is a 50% chance the true search rate is in the interval 9% to 12%. --Rupert 03:02, 12 April 2009 (BST)

Zombie Attack Odds

The results of my zombie attack rates are this: percentages are as advertised. Debarricading averages 25% at most, most of the time it seems like 20%. It varies quite a bit per zombie. A good basher is around 30%, a poor basher is below 20%. I occasionally find myself getting the zerg flag for no reason, perhaps someone in the same suburb on the same subnet? Zerg flags are obvious: 30 bashes at less than 10% success. No other attack is susceptible to these erroneous zerg flags. If I use a proxy myself, the problem goes away. Equipment bashing is at least 50% and often 75%. Maul: 53% or so. Bite: 30%. These are fully trained zombies by the way. This is based on several thousand combined samples, but I kept each day separate and guessed at the combined average (too damn lazy). --Rupert 05:18, 15 November 2008 (UTC)

Okay, okay, fine. I combined all my samples. I was shocked at how many I had, I guess I've been playing zombies for a while!

maul=6213/12114 = 51 %

bite=312/1131 = 27 %

bash=802/3181 = 25 %

equip=86/194 = 44 %

Latest

These results were collected starting April '09 or so. --Rupert 02:48, 12 April 2009 (BST)

By Building

building_type	cond	lights	searches	item	count	percent	50% confidence	90% confidence	AP
auto repair	okay	lit	226	nothing	172	76.1%	-2.1/+1.7%	-5.0/+4.3%	1.3
				crowbar	13	5.8%	-0.8/+1.3%	-2.0/+3.2%	17.2
				spray can	12	5.3%	-0.7/+1.4%	-1.9/+3.1%	18.9
				fuel can	11	4.9%	-0.7/+1.3%	-1.8/+3.0%	20.4
				bottle of beer	5	2.2%	-0.3/+1.1%	-1.0/+2.4%	45.5
				newspaper	5	2.2%	-0.3/+1.1%	-1.0/+2.4%	45.5
				fire axe	5	2.2%	-0.3/+1.1%	-1.0/+2.4%	45.5
				toolbox	3	1.3%	-0.2/+0.9%	-0.7/+2.1%	76.9
		dark	241	nothing	190	78.8%	-1.9/+1.6%	-4.7/+4.0%	1.3
				spray can	14	5.8%	-0.7/+1.3%	-1.9/+3.1%	17.2
				crowbar	13	5.4%	-0.7/+1.3%	-1.9/+3.0%	18.5
				fuel can	13	5.4%	-0.7/+1.3%	-1.9/+3.0%	18.5
				newspaper	5	2.1%	-0.4/+1.0%	-1.0/+2.2%	47.6
				toolbox	3	1.2%	-0.2/+0.9%	-0.6/+2.0%	83.3
				fire axe	3	1.2%	-0.2/+0.9%	-0.6/+2.0%	83.3
factory	okay	lit	454	nothing	337	74.2%	-1.4/+1.3%	-3.5/+3.2%	1.3
				length of pipe	33	7.3%	-0.7/+1.0%	-1.8/+2.3%	13.7
				fuel can	22	4.8%	-0.5/+0.9%	-1.3/+2.0%	20.8
				crowbar	19	4.2%	-0.5/+0.8%	-1.3/+1.9%	23.8
				portable generator	16	3.5%	-0.4/+0.8%	-1.1/+1.8%	28.6
				toolbox	16	3.5%	-0.4/+0.8%	-1.1/+1.8%	28.6
				fire axe	11	2.4%	-0.3/+0.7%	-0.9/+1.6%	41.7
hospital	okay	lit	1280	nothing	951	74.3%	-0.9/+0.8%	-2.1/+1.9%	1.3
				first-aid kit	329	25.7%	-0.8/+0.9%	-1.9/+2.1%	3.9
		dark	1323	nothing	1059	80.0%	-0.7/+0.8%	-1.8/+1.8%	1.2
				first-aid kit	264	20.0%	-0.8/+0.7%	-1.8/+1.8%	5.0
necrotech	okay	lit	447	nothing	345	77.2%	-1.5/+1.2%	-3.5/+3.1%	1.3
				syringe	62	13.9%	-1.0/+1.2%	-2.5/+2.9%	7.2
				DNA extractor	24	5.4%	-0.6/+0.9%	-1.5/+2.1%	18.5
				GPS unit	16	3.6%	-0.5/+0.8%	-1.2/+1.8%	27.8
		dark	458	nothing	365	79.7%	-1.4/+1.2%	-3.3/+2.9%	1.3
				syringe	59	12.9%	-0.9/+1.2%	-2.3/+2.8%	7.8
				GPS unit	19	4.1%	-0.4/+0.8%	-1.2/+1.9%	24.4
				DNA extractor	15	3.3%	-0.4/+0.7%	-1.1/+1.7%	30.3

Mall

building_type	cond	lights	bargain	searches	item	count	percent	50% confidence	90% confidence	AP
mall_drug_store	okay	lit	bargain	678	nothing	563	83.0%	-1.0/+0.9%	-2.5/+2.3%	1.2
					first-aid kit	115	17.0%	-0.9/+1.0%	-2.3/+2.5%	5.9
			no bargain	724	nothing	660	91.2%	-0.8/+0.6%	-2.0/+1.5%	1.1
					first-aid kit	64	8.8%	-0.6/+0.8%	-1.5/+2.0%	11.4

Previous Results

These results were collected starting Oct 14, 2008.

By Building

building_type	cond	lights	searches	item	count	percent	AP
auto repair	okay	lit	56	nothing	38	67.86%	1.47
				crowbar	5	8.93%	11.20
				fuel can	5	8.93%	11.20
				spray can	3	5.36%	18.67
				bottle of beer	2	3.57%	28.00
				newspaper	1	1.79%	56.00
				fire axe	1	1.79%	56.00
				toolbox	1	1.79%	56.00
building	okay	dark	1	nothing	1	100.00%	1.00
church	okay	dark	59	nothing	46	77.97%	1.28
				crucifix	7	11.86%	8.43
				bottle of wine	4	6.78%	14.75
				first-aid kit	2	3.39%	29.50
factory	okay	lit	78	nothing	56	71.79%	1.39
				crowbar	5	6.41%	15.60
				length of pipe	5	6.41%	15.60
				toolbox	4	5.13%	19.50
				portable generator	3	3.85%	26.00
				fire axe	3	3.85%	26.00
				fuel can	2	2.56%	39.00
hospital	okay	lit	905	nothing	681	75.25%	1.33
				first-aid kit	165	18.23%	5.48
				newspaper	59	6.52%	15.34
	ruined	dark	142	nothing	124	87.32%	1.15
				first-aid kit	15	10.56%	9.47
				newspaper	3	2.11%	47.33
necrotech	okay	lit	918	nothing	683	74.40%	1.34
				DNA extractor	82	8.93%	11.20
				syringe	80	8.71%	11.48
				GPS unit	73	7.95%	12.58
		dark	29	nothing	21	72.41%	1.38
				syringe	5	17.24%	5.80
				GPS unit	2	6.90%	14.50
				DNA extractor	1	3.45%	29.00
	ruined	dark	15	nothing	14	93.33%	1.07
				DNA extractor	1	6.67%	15.00

Malls

building_type	cond	lights	bargain	searches	item	count	percent	AP
mall	ruined	dark	bargain	15	nothing	11	73.33%	1.36
					portable generator	1	6.67%	15.00
					bottle of wine	1	6.67%	15.00
					GPS unit	1	6.67%	15.00
					pistol clip	1	6.67%	15.00
			no bargain	10	nothing	8	80.00%	1.25
					bottle of wine	1	10.00%	10.00
					toolbox	1	10.00%	10.00
mall_drug_store	okay	lit	bargain	127	nothing	102	80.31%	1.25
					first-aid kit	25	19.69%	5.08
			no bargain	160	nothing	145	90.63%	1.10
					first-aid kit	15	9.38%	10.67
		dark	bargain	30	nothing	27	90.00%	1.11
					first-aid kit	3	10.00%	10.00
			no bargain	32	nothing	30	93.75%	1.07
					first-aid kit	2	6.25%	16.00
	ruined	dark	bargain	42	nothing	35	83.33%	1.20
					first-aid kit	7	16.67%	6.00
			no bargain	65	nothing	63	96.92%	1.03
					first-aid kit	2	3.08%	32.50
mall_hardware_store	okay	lit	bargain	5	nothing	5	100.00%	1.00

By Item

item	percent	AP	building	inside	cond	lights	shopping	bargain
bottle of beer	3.57%	28.00 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
bottle of wine	10.00%	10.00 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	no shopping	no bargain
	6.78%	14.75 AP	church	in	okay	dark	-	-
	6.67%	15.00 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
crowbar	8.93%	11.20 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
	6.41%	15.60 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
crucifix	11.86%	8.43 AP	church	in	okay	dark	-	-
DNA extractor	8.93%	11.20 AP	necrotech	in	okay	lit	-	-
	6.67%	15.00 AP	necrotech	in	ruined	dark	-	-
	3.45%	29.00 AP	necrotech	in	okay	dark	-	-
fire axe	3.85%	26.00 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
	1.79%	56.00 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
first-aid kit	19.69%	5.08 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	bargain
	18.23%	5.48 AP	hospital	in	okay	lit	-	-
	16.67%	6.00 AP	mall_drug_store	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
	10.56%	9.47 AP	hospital	in	ruined	dark	-	-
	10.00%	10.00 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	dark	shopping	bargain
	9.38%	10.67 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	no bargain
	6.25%	16.00 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	dark	shopping	no bargain
	3.39%	29.50 AP	church	in	okay	dark	-	-
	3.08%	32.50 AP	mall_drug_store	in	ruined	dark	shopping	no bargain
fuel can	8.93%	11.20 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
	2.56%	39.00 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
GPS unit	7.95%	12.58 AP	necrotech	in	okay	lit	-	-
	6.90%	14.50 AP	necrotech	in	okay	dark	-	-
	6.67%	15.00 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
length of pipe	6.41%	15.60 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
newspaper	6.52%	15.34 AP	hospital	in	okay	lit	-	-
	2.11%	47.33 AP	hospital	in	ruined	dark	-	-
	1.79%	56.00 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
nothing	100.00%	1.00 AP	mall_hardware_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	bargain
	100.00%	1.00 AP	building	in	okay	dark	-	-
	96.92%	1.03 AP	mall_drug_store	in	ruined	dark	shopping	no bargain
	93.75%	1.07 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	dark	shopping	no bargain
	93.33%	1.07 AP	necrotech	in	ruined	dark	-	-
	90.63%	1.10 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	no bargain
	90.00%	1.11 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	dark	shopping	bargain
	87.32%	1.15 AP	hospital	in	ruined	dark	-	-
	83.33%	1.20 AP	mall_drug_store	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
	80.31%	1.25 AP	mall_drug_store	in	okay	lit	shopping	bargain
	80.00%	1.25 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	no shopping	no bargain
	77.97%	1.28 AP	church	in	okay	dark	-	-
	75.25%	1.33 AP	hospital	in	okay	lit	-	-
	74.40%	1.34 AP	necrotech	in	okay	lit	-	-
	73.33%	1.36 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
	72.41%	1.38 AP	necrotech	in	okay	dark	-	-
	71.79%	1.39 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
	67.86%	1.47 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
pistol clip	6.67%	15.00 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
portable generator	6.67%	15.00 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	shopping	bargain
	3.85%	26.00 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
spray can	5.36%	18.67 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-
syringe	17.24%	5.80 AP	necrotech	in	okay	dark	-	-
	8.71%	11.48 AP	necrotech	in	okay	lit	-	-
toolbox	10.00%	10.00 AP	mall	in	ruined	dark	no shopping	no bargain
	5.13%	19.50 AP	factory	in	okay	lit	-	-
	1.79%	56.00 AP	auto repair	in	okay	lit	-	-

User:Rupert/Results1

Methods

I play every page of Urban Dead through a Javascript page on my home computer that I coded up using the Prototype Javascript library (awesome) that uses AJAX HttpRequests to a php proxy (super awesome). That's because Javascript can't contact urbandead.com directly due to the security sandbox, but it can contact php on the same machine and php can contact any website it wishes, so it's more of a two-level proxy, sometimes three. I can then over-analyze the HTML with Javascript till my heart's content, extracting all sorts of information, as well as auto-searching (a fire-and-forget time saver). Javascript is surprisingly good at this and fun to program.

Each search result scraped by Javascript is sent via another AJAX request to a similar php page that stores the data in a MySQL table with these columns:

+--------------------+---------------------+------+-----+---------+-------+
| Field              | Type                | Null | Key | Default | Extra |
+--------------------+---------------------+------+-----+---------+-------+
| name               | char(25)            | NO   |     |         |       |
| date               | date                | YES  |     | NULL    |       |
| building_name      | char(40)            | NO   |     |         |       |
| building_type      | char(20)            | NO   |     |         |       |
| inside             | tinyint(3) unsigned | NO   |     |         |       |
| building_condition | char(10)            | NO   |     |         |       |
| building_light     | tinyint(3) unsigned | NO   |     |         |       |
| has_shopping       | tinyint(3) unsigned | NO   |     |         |       |
| has_bargain        | tinyint(3) unsigned | NO   |     |         |       |
| item_found         | char(40)            | NO   |     |         |       |
| has_necro          | tinyint(3) unsigned | NO   |     | 0       |       |
| has_necro_lab      | tinyint(3) unsigned | NO   |     | 0       |       |
+--------------------+---------------------+------+-----+---------+-------+

When I'm done playing, I run a SQL script that copies that data into a temporary table, transforming all items named "pistol(*)" to just "pistol" because I don't care about the odds of pistol ammo right now, same for "shotgun(*)". Then I transform "NecroTech syringe" and "revivification syringe" into just "syringe", "rusty knife" and "pocket knife" and "hunting knife" into just "knife". Then I count identical rows. This condenses the table from thousands of rows (one per search) to only hundreds, at which point it looks like this:

+-------------+----+-----------+-------+----------+---------+-------+-----+----------------+-------+
| building    | in | condition | light | shopping | bargain | necro | lab | item           | count |
+-------------+----+-----------+-------+----------+---------+-------+-----+----------------+-------+
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        0 |       0 |     1 |   1 | bottle of beer |     2 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        0 |       0 |     1 |   1 | crowbar        |     1 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        0 |       0 |     1 |   1 | fire axe       |     1 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        0 |       0 |     1 |   1 | fuel can       |     4 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        0 |       0 |     1 |   1 | nothing        |    34 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        0 |       0 |     1 |   1 | spray can      |     3 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        1 |       0 |     0 |   0 | bottle of beer |     1 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        1 |       0 |     0 |   0 | crowbar        |     3 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        1 |       0 |     0 |   0 | fire axe       |     1 |
| auto repair |  1 | okay      |     1 |        1 |       0 |     0 |   0 | fuel can       |     2 |
+-------------+----+-----------+-------+----------+---------+-------+-----+----------------+-------+

Then the script builds up a second temporary table populated by three queries on the first temp table:

1. all non-mall and non-necrotech rows grouped by building type, light, and item
2. all malls and mall substores further grouped by has_shopping and has_bargain
3. all necrotechs grouped by the same as (1) but also by has_necro and has_lab (because the odds appear to be different)

Then I order the table by building and condition to get the "By Building" table, and by item for the "By Item" table. Then I execute a php page to get the html tables to paste into this lovely wiki.