User:Rupert

I am a stats junkie. I wrote my own Javascript/PHP page that scrapes search results from the HTML as I play Urban Dead.

News

The odds of finding a syringe are back up to 13%. Generators don't make any difference. I added Confidence Intervals to my data. Consider the binomial likelihood function: L = (n choose y) * p^(y) * (1-p)^(n-y), where n is the number of searches, y is the number of successes, p is the predicted search rate and L is the likelihood that the predicted search rate is correct. To compute the 50% confidence interval I throw away the first and last 25% of the area under the curve. This interval contains 50% of the likelihood. If p=10% and the 50% confidence interval is -1/+2 then there is a 50% chance the true search rate is in the interval 9% to 12%. --Rupert 03:02, 12 April 2009 (BST)

Latest

These results were collected starting April '09 or so. --Rupert 02:48, 12 April 2009 (BST)

By Building

building_type	cond	lights	searches	item	count	percent	50% confidence	90% confidence	AP
auto repair	okay	lit	684	nothing	519	75.9%	-1.1/+1.1%	-2.8/+2.6%	1.3
				spray can	40	5.8%	-0.5/+0.7%	-1.3/+1.6%	17.2
				fuel can	40	5.8%	-0.5/+0.7%	-1.3/+1.6%	17.2
				crowbar	34	5.0%	-0.6/+0.6%	-1.3/+1.5%	20.0
				bottle of beer	16	2.3%	-0.3/+0.5%	-0.8/+1.1%	43.5
				fire axe	16	2.3%	-0.3/+0.5%	-0.8/+1.1%	43.5
				toolbox	11	1.6%	-0.3/+0.4%	-0.7/+0.9%	62.5
				newspaper	8	1.2%	-0.3/+0.3%	-0.6/+0.8%	83.3
		dark	273	nothing	215	78.8%	-1.7/+1.6%	-4.3/+3.8%	1.3
				fuel can	16	5.9%	-1.0/+1.0%	-2.1/+2.6%	16.9
				spray can	15	5.5%	-0.9/+1.0%	-2.0/+2.6%	18.2
				crowbar	15	5.5%	-0.9/+1.0%	-2.0/+2.6%	18.2
				newspaper	5	1.8%	-0.5/+0.6%	-1.0/+1.7%	55.6
				toolbox	4	1.5%	-0.5/+0.5%	-0.9/+1.5%	66.7
				fire axe	3	1.1%	-0.4/+0.5%	-0.8/+1.4%	90.9
factory	okay	lit	536	nothing	397	74.1%	-1.3/+1.2%	-3.2/+3.0%	1.3
				length of pipe	37	6.9%	-0.7/+0.8%	-1.7/+2.0%	14.5
				fuel can	27	5.0%	-0.6/+0.7%	-1.4/+1.7%	20.0
				toolbox	23	4.3%	-0.6/+0.6%	-1.3/+1.6%	23.3
				crowbar	19	3.5%	-0.5/+0.6%	-1.1/+1.5%	28.6
				portable generator	18	3.4%	-0.5/+0.5%	-1.2/+1.4%	29.4
				fire axe	15	2.8%	-0.5/+0.5%	-1.0/+1.3%	35.7
hospital	okay	lit	2012	nothing	1505	74.8%	-0.7/+0.7%	-1.6/+1.6%	1.3
				first-aid kit	507	25.2%	-0.7/+0.7%	-1.6/+1.6%	4.0
		dark	1410	nothing	1130	80.1%	-0.7/+0.8%	-1.7/+1.8%	1.2
				first-aid kit	280	19.9%	-0.8/+0.7%	-1.8/+1.7%	5.0
necrotech	okay	lit	488	nothing	375	76.8%	-1.3/+1.3%	-3.2/+3.1%	1.3
				syringe	65	13.3%	-1.0/+1.1%	-2.4/+2.7%	7.5
				DNA extractor	27	5.5%	-0.6/+0.8%	-1.5/+1.9%	18.2
				GPS unit	21	4.3%	-0.6/+0.7%	-1.3/+1.7%	23.3
		dark	458	nothing	365	79.7%	-1.3/+1.2%	-3.2/+3.0%	1.3
				syringe	59	12.9%	-1.0/+1.1%	-2.4/+2.7%	7.8
				GPS unit	19	4.1%	-0.6/+0.7%	-1.3/+1.8%	24.4
				DNA extractor	15	3.3%	-0.6/+0.6%	-1.2/+1.5%	30.3
	ruined	dark	53	nothing	47	88.7%	-3.2/+2.7%	-8.4/+5.8%	1.1
				syringe	4	7.5%	-2.2/+2.7%	-4.5/+7.5%	13.3
				GPS unit	1	1.9%	-1.1/+1.7%	-1.7/+5.2%	52.6
				DNA extractor	1	1.9%	-1.1/+1.7%	-1.7/+5.2%	52.6
police dept	okay	lit	552	nothing	409	74.1%	-1.3/+1.2%	-3.1/+3.0%	1.3
				shotgun shell	43	7.8%	-0.8/+0.8%	-1.8/+2.0%	12.8
				pistol clip	37	6.7%	-0.7/+0.7%	-1.6/+1.9%	14.9
				pistol	16	2.9%	-0.5/+0.5%	-1.0/+1.3%	34.5
				flare gun	14	2.5%	-0.4/+0.5%	-0.9/+1.3%	40.0
				shotgun	12	2.2%	-0.4/+0.4%	-0.9/+1.2%	45.5
				flak jacket	11	2.0%	-0.4/+0.4%	-0.8/+1.1%	50.0
				radio	10	1.8%	-0.3/+0.4%	-0.8/+1.1%	55.6
		dark	519	nothing	421	81.1%	-1.2/+1.2%	-2.9/+2.7%	1.2
				pistol clip	33	6.4%	-0.7/+0.7%	-1.7/+1.9%	15.6
				shotgun shell	26	5.0%	-0.6/+0.7%	-1.4/+1.7%	20.0
				shotgun	9	1.7%	-0.3/+0.5%	-0.8/+1.2%	58.8
				flare gun	9	1.7%	-0.3/+0.5%	-0.8/+1.2%	58.8
				pistol	8	1.5%	-0.3/+0.4%	-0.7/+1.1%	66.7
				radio	7	1.3%	-0.3/+0.4%	-0.6/+1.1%	76.9
				flak jacket	6	1.2%	-0.3/+0.3%	-0.7/+0.9%	83.3
streets	-	-	1	nothing	1	99.9%	-29.3/+0.0%	-68.4/+0.1%	1.0

--Rupert 06:30, 20 April 2009 (BST)

Mall

building_type	cond	lights	bargain	searches	item	count	percent	50% confidence	90% confidence	AP
mall_drug_store	okay	lit	bargain	907	nothing	754	83.1%	-0.8/+0.9%	-2.1/+2.0%	1.2
					first-aid kit	153	16.9%	-0.9/+0.8%	-2.0/+2.1%	5.9
			no bargain	913	nothing	829	90.8%	-0.7/+0.6%	-1.7/+1.5%	1.1
					first-aid kit	84	9.2%	-0.6/+0.7%	-1.5/+1.7%	10.9
mall_gun_store	okay	lit	bargain	208	nothing	108	51.9%	-2.3/+2.3%	-5.7/+5.7%	1.9
					pistol clip	37	17.8%	-1.7/+1.8%	-4.1/+4.6%	5.6
					shotgun shell	33	15.9%	-1.7/+1.7%	-3.9/+4.4%	6.3
					shotgun	18	8.7%	-1.3/+1.3%	-2.9/+3.5%	11.5
					pistol	12	5.8%	-1.1/+1.1%	-2.3/+3.0%	17.2
			no bargain	254	nothing	187	73.6%	-1.9/+1.9%	-4.7/+4.4%	1.4
					pistol clip	23	9.1%	-1.2/+1.2%	-2.7/+3.2%	11.0
					shotgun shell	21	8.3%	-1.1/+1.2%	-2.6/+3.1%	12.0
					shotgun	15	5.9%	-0.9/+1.1%	-2.1/+2.8%	16.9
					pistol	8	3.1%	-0.6/+0.9%	-1.4/+2.2%	32.3
mall_tech_store	okay	lit	no bargain	39	nothing	32	82.1%	-4.4/+3.8%	-11.3/+8.4%	1.2
					radio	3	7.7%	-2.6/+3.2%	-5.1/+9.0%	13.0
					radio transmitter	3	7.7%	-2.6/+3.2%	-5.1/+9.0%	13.0
					mobile phone	1	2.6%	-1.4/+2.2%	-2.4/+6.9%	38.5

--Rupert 06:31, 20 April 2009 (BST)

Result Set 2

User:Rupert/Results2

Result Set 1

User:Rupert/Results1

Methods

User:Rupert/Methods