User:Rupert: Difference between revisions
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I modified my confidence interval code so that the integration uses Simpson's Rule and the interval is chosen such that the likelihood at either end is the same. Surprisingly this didn't change the intervals more than ±0.1 --[[User:Rupert|Rupert]] 22:47, 20 April 2009 (BST) | I modified my confidence interval code so that the integration uses Simpson's Rule and the interval is chosen such that the likelihood at either end is the same. Surprisingly this didn't change the intervals more than ±0.1 --[[User:Rupert|Rupert]] 22:47, 20 April 2009 (BST) | ||
There is nothing special about searching a fort. The armoury is the same as a police station, the infirmary is worse than a dark hospital because the scalpel is just as bad as the hospital newspapers were. --[[User:Rupert|Rupert]] 08:35, 25 April 2009 (BST) | |||
= Latest = | = Latest = | ||
Revision as of 07:35, 25 April 2009
I am a stats junkie. I wrote my own Javascript/PHP page that scrapes search results from the HTML as I play Urban Dead.
News
The odds of finding a syringe are back up to 13%. Generators don't make any difference. I added Confidence Intervals to my data. Consider the binomial likelihood function: L = (n choose y)p(y)(1-p)(n-y), where n is the number of searches, y is the number of successes, p is the predicted search rate and L is the likelihood that the predicted search rate is correct. To compute the 50% confidence interval I throw away the first and last 25% of the area under the curve. This interval contains 50% of the likelihood. If p=10% and the 50% confidence interval is -1/+2 then there is a 50% chance the true search rate is in the interval 9% to 12%. --Rupert 03:02, 12 April 2009 (BST)
I modified my confidence interval code so that the integration uses Simpson's Rule and the interval is chosen such that the likelihood at either end is the same. Surprisingly this didn't change the intervals more than ±0.1 --Rupert 22:47, 20 April 2009 (BST)
There is nothing special about searching a fort. The armoury is the same as a police station, the infirmary is worse than a dark hospital because the scalpel is just as bad as the hospital newspapers were. --Rupert 08:35, 25 April 2009 (BST)
Latest
These results were collected starting April '09 or so. --Rupert 02:48, 12 April 2009 (BST)
By Building
| building_type | cond | lights | searches | item | count | percent | 50% confidence |
90% confidence |
AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| auto repair | okay | lit | 684 | nothing | 519 | 75.9% | -1.1/+1.1% | -2.8/+2.6% | 1.3 |
| fuel can | 40 | 5.8% | -0.5/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.6% | 17.2 | ||||
| spray can | 40 | 5.8% | -0.5/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.6% | 17.2 | ||||
| crowbar | 34 | 5.0% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.3/+1.5% | 20.0 | ||||
| fire axe | 16 | 2.3% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.1% | 43.5 | ||||
| bottle of beer | 16 | 2.3% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.1% | 43.5 | ||||
| toolbox | 11 | 1.6% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.7/+0.9% | 62.5 | ||||
| newspaper | 8 | 1.2% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.6/+0.8% | 83.3 | ||||
| dark | 321 | nothing | 254 | 79.1% | -1.5/+1.5% | -3.9/+3.6% | 1.3 | ||
| spray can | 18 | 5.6% | -0.8/+0.9% | -1.9/+2.4% | 17.9 | ||||
| fuel can | 18 | 5.6% | -0.8/+0.9% | -1.9/+2.4% | 17.9 | ||||
| crowbar | 17 | 5.3% | -0.8/+0.9% | -1.8/+2.3% | 18.9 | ||||
| toolbox | 5 | 1.6% | -0.5/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.4% | 62.5 | ||||
| newspaper | 5 | 1.6% | -0.5/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.4% | 62.5 | ||||
| fire axe | 4 | 1.2% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.7/+1.4% | 83.3 | ||||
| factory | okay | lit | 536 | nothing | 397 | 74.1% | -1.3/+1.2% | -3.2/+3.0% | 1.3 |
| length of pipe | 37 | 6.9% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+2.0% | 14.5 | ||||
| fuel can | 27 | 5.0% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.4/+1.7% | 20.0 | ||||
| toolbox | 23 | 4.3% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.3/+1.6% | 23.3 | ||||
| crowbar | 19 | 3.5% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.1/+1.5% | 28.6 | ||||
| portable generator | 18 | 3.4% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.2/+1.4% | 29.4 | ||||
| fire axe | 15 | 2.8% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.0/+1.3% | 35.7 | ||||
| hospital | okay | lit | 2720 | nothing | 2037 | 74.9% | -0.6/+0.5% | -1.4/+1.3% | 1.3 |
| first-aid kit | 683 | 25.1% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.3/+1.4% | 4.0 | ||||
| dark | 1410 | nothing | 1130 | 80.1% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+1.8% | 1.2 | ||
| first-aid kit | 280 | 19.9% | -0.8/+0.7% | -1.8/+1.7% | 5.0 | ||||
| junkyard | okay | dark | 12 | nothing | 8 | 66.7% | -9.0/+8.2% | -22.3/+18.1% | 1.5 |
| spray can | 1 | 8.3% | -4.3/+6.5% | -7.4/+18.9% | 12.0 | ||||
| hockey stick | 1 | 8.3% | -4.3/+6.5% | -7.4/+18.9% | 12.0 | ||||
| crowbar | 1 | 8.3% | -4.3/+6.5% | -7.4/+18.9% | 12.0 | ||||
| book | 1 | 8.3% | -4.3/+6.5% | -7.4/+18.9% | 12.0 | ||||
| necrotech | okay | lit | 627 | nothing | 482 | 76.9% | -1.2/+1.1% | -2.9/+2.7% | 1.3 |
| syringe | 84 | 13.4% | -0.9/+0.9% | -2.1/+2.3% | 7.5 | ||||
| DNA extractor | 35 | 5.6% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.4/+1.6% | 17.9 | ||||
| GPS unit | 26 | 4.1% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.1/+1.5% | 24.4 | ||||
| dark | 496 | nothing | 395 | 79.6% | -1.2/+1.2% | -3.0/+2.9% | 1.3 | ||
| syringe | 65 | 13.1% | -1.0/+1.0% | -2.4/+2.6% | 7.6 | ||||
| GPS unit | 21 | 4.2% | -0.5/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.7% | 23.8 | ||||
| DNA extractor | 15 | 3.0% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.1/+1.5% | 33.3 | ||||
| ruined | dark | 236 | nothing | 214 | 90.7% | -1.4/+1.2% | -3.4/+2.8% | 1.1 | |
| syringe | 10 | 4.2% | -0.8/+1.0% | -1.8/+2.6% | 23.8 | ||||
| GPS unit | 7 | 3.0% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.5/+2.2% | 33.3 | ||||
| DNA extractor | 5 | 2.1% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.2/+2.0% | 47.6 | ||||
| police dept | okay | lit | 552 | nothing | 409 | 74.1% | -1.3/+1.2% | -3.1/+3.0% | 1.3 |
| shotgun shell | 43 | 7.8% | -0.8/+0.8% | -1.8/+2.0% | 12.8 | ||||
| pistol clip | 37 | 6.7% | -0.7/+0.7% | -1.6/+1.9% | 14.9 | ||||
| pistol | 16 | 2.9% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.0/+1.3% | 34.5 | ||||
| flare gun | 14 | 2.5% | -0.4/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.3% | 40.0 | ||||
| shotgun | 12 | 2.2% | -0.4/+0.4% | -0.9/+1.2% | 45.5 | ||||
| flak jacket | 11 | 2.0% | -0.4/+0.4% | -0.8/+1.1% | 50.0 | ||||
| radio | 10 | 1.8% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.8/+1.1% | 55.6 | ||||
| dark | 519 | nothing | 421 | 81.1% | -1.2/+1.2% | -2.9/+2.7% | 1.2 | ||
| pistol clip | 33 | 6.4% | -0.7/+0.7% | -1.7/+1.9% | 15.6 | ||||
| shotgun shell | 26 | 5.0% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.4/+1.7% | 20.0 | ||||
| shotgun | 9 | 1.7% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.2% | 58.8 | ||||
| flare gun | 9 | 1.7% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.2% | 58.8 | ||||
| pistol | 8 | 1.5% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.7/+1.1% | 66.7 | ||||
| radio | 7 | 1.3% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.6/+1.1% | 76.9 | ||||
| flak jacket | 6 | 1.2% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.7/+0.9% | 83.3 | ||||
| streets | - | - | 1 | nothing | 1 | 99.9% | -29.3/+0.0% | -68.4/+0.1% | 1.0 |
--Rupert 08:22, 25 April 2009 (BST)
Mall
| building_type | cond | lights | bargain | searches | item | count | percent | 50% confidence |
90% confidence |
AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mall | okay | lit | no bargain | 105 | nothing | 77 | 73.3% | -2.9/+2.9% | -7.4/+6.7% | 1.4 |
| first-aid kit | 4 | 3.8% | -1.1/+1.4% | -2.3/+4.0% | 26.3 | |||||
| pistol | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| radio transmitter | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| pair of binoculars | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| shotgun | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| mobile phone | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| shotgun shell | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| spray can | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| bottle of wine | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| pistol clip | 2 | 1.9% | -0.8/+1.1% | -1.5/+3.2% | 52.6 | |||||
| toolbox | 1 | 1.0% | -0.6/+0.8% | -0.9/+2.7% | 100.0 | |||||
| baseball bat | 1 | 1.0% | -0.6/+0.8% | -0.9/+2.7% | 100.0 | |||||
| newspaper | 1 | 1.0% | -0.6/+0.8% | -0.9/+2.7% | 100.0 | |||||
| hockey stick | 1 | 1.0% | -0.6/+0.8% | -0.9/+2.7% | 100.0 | |||||
| flare gun | 1 | 1.0% | -0.6/+0.8% | -0.9/+2.7% | 100.0 | |||||
| bottle of beer | 1 | 1.0% | -0.6/+0.8% | -0.9/+2.7% | 100.0 | |||||
| mall_drug_store | okay | lit | bargain | 907 | nothing | 754 | 83.1% | -0.8/+0.9% | -2.1/+2.0% | 1.2 |
| first-aid kit | 153 | 16.9% | -0.9/+0.8% | -2.0/+2.1% | 5.9 | |||||
| no bargain | 913 | nothing | 829 | 90.8% | -0.7/+0.6% | -1.7/+1.5% | 1.1 | |||
| first-aid kit | 84 | 9.2% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.5/+1.7% | 10.9 | |||||
| mall_gun_store | okay | lit | bargain | 436 | nothing | 223 | 51.1% | -1.6/+1.7% | -3.9/+4.0% | 2.0 |
| shotgun shell | 68 | 15.6% | -1.2/+1.2% | -2.7/+3.0% | 6.4 | |||||
| pistol clip | 65 | 14.9% | -1.1/+1.2% | -2.6/+3.0% | 6.7 | |||||
| shotgun | 48 | 11.0% | -1.0/+1.0% | -2.3/+2.6% | 9.1 | |||||
| pistol | 32 | 7.3% | -0.8/+0.9% | -1.8/+2.3% | 13.7 | |||||
| no bargain | 518 | nothing | 381 | 73.6% | -1.4/+1.2% | -3.3/+3.1% | 1.4 | |||
| pistol clip | 53 | 10.2% | -0.8/+1.0% | -2.0/+2.4% | 9.8 | |||||
| shotgun shell | 42 | 8.1% | -0.8/+0.8% | -1.8/+2.1% | 12.3 | |||||
| shotgun | 23 | 4.4% | -0.5/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.7% | 22.7 | |||||
| pistol | 19 | 3.7% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.2/+1.5% | 27.0 | |||||
| mall_tech_store | okay | lit | bargain | 298 | nothing | 146 | 49.0% | -2.0/+1.9% | -4.7/+4.7% | 2.0 |
| radio transmitter | 45 | 15.1% | -1.4/+1.4% | -3.2/+3.6% | 6.6 | |||||
| mobile phone | 40 | 13.4% | -1.3/+1.4% | -3.0/+3.5% | 7.5 | |||||
| GPS unit | 34 | 11.4% | -1.2/+1.3% | -2.8/+3.3% | 8.8 | |||||
| radio | 33 | 11.1% | -1.2/+1.2% | -2.8/+3.2% | 9.0 | |||||
| no bargain | 422 | nothing | 319 | 75.6% | -1.4/+1.4% | -3.5/+3.3% | 1.3 | |||
| radio | 29 | 6.9% | -0.8/+0.8% | -1.9/+2.2% | 14.5 | |||||
| GPS unit | 25 | 5.9% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+2.1% | 16.9 | |||||
| mobile phone | 25 | 5.9% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+2.1% | 16.9 | |||||
| radio transmitter | 24 | 5.7% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+2.0% | 17.5 | |||||
--Rupert 08:24, 25 April 2009 (BST)
Fort
| building_type | cond | lights | searches | item | count | percent | 50% confidence |
90% confidence |
AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| armoury | okay | lit | 874 | nothing | 662 | 75.7% | -0.9/+1.0% | -2.4/+2.4% | 1.3 |
| shotgun shell | 59 | 6.8% | -0.6/+0.5% | -1.4/+1.4% | 14.7 | ||||
| pistol clip | 57 | 6.5% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.3/+1.5% | 15.4 | ||||
| pistol | 26 | 3.0% | -0.4/+0.4% | -0.9/+1.0% | 33.3 | ||||
| flak jacket | 19 | 2.2% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.7/+0.9% | 45.5 | ||||
| pair of binoculars | 19 | 2.2% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.7/+0.9% | 45.5 | ||||
| flare gun | 17 | 1.9% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.6/+0.9% | 52.6 | ||||
| shotgun | 15 | 1.7% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.6/+0.8% | 58.8 | ||||
| gatehouse | okay | lit | 309 | nothing | 232 | 75.1% | -1.7/+1.6% | -4.2/+3.9% | 1.3 |
| newspaper | 58 | 18.8% | -1.5/+1.5% | -3.5/+3.8% | 5.3 | ||||
| pistol clip | 19 | 6.1% | -0.8/+1.0% | -2.0/+2.6% | 16.4 | ||||
| infirmary | okay | lit | 602 | nothing | 450 | 74.8% | -1.3/+1.1% | -3.0/+2.8% | 1.3 |
| first-aid kit | 101 | 16.8% | -1.0/+1.0% | -2.4/+2.6% | 6.0 | ||||
| knife | 51 | 8.5% | -0.8/+0.8% | -1.8/+2.0% | 11.8 | ||||
| storehouse | okay | lit | 536 | nothing | 402 | 75.0% | -1.3/+1.2% | -3.2/+3.0% | 1.3 |
| length of pipe | 19 | 3.5% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.1/+1.5% | 28.6 | ||||
| flare gun | 18 | 3.4% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.2/+1.4% | 29.4 | ||||
| fuel can | 18 | 3.4% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.2/+1.4% | 29.4 | ||||
| spray can | 16 | 3.0% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.1/+1.4% | 33.3 | ||||
| toolbox | 16 | 3.0% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.1/+1.4% | 33.3 | ||||
| radio transmitter | 14 | 2.6% | -0.4/+0.5% | -1.0/+1.3% | 38.5 | ||||
| crowbar | 12 | 2.2% | -0.4/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.3% | 45.5 | ||||
| pair of binoculars | 12 | 2.2% | -0.4/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.3% | 45.5 | ||||
| portable generator | 9 | 1.7% | -0.4/+0.4% | -0.8/+1.1% | 58.8 | ||||
--Rupert 08:24, 25 April 2009 (BST)
