User:Rupert
I am a stats junkie. I wrote my own Javascript/PHP page that scrapes search results from the HTML as I play Urban Dead.
News
The odds of finding a syringe are back up to 13%. Generators don't make any difference. I added Confidence Intervals to my data. Consider the binomial likelihood function: L = (n choose y) * p^(y) * (1-p)^(n-y), where n is the number of searches, y is the number of successes, p is the predicted search rate and L is the likelihood that the predicted search rate is correct. To compute the 50% confidence interval I throw away the first and last 25% of the area under the curve. This interval contains 50% of the likelihood. If p=10% and the 50% confidence interval is -1/+2 then there is a 50% chance the true search rate is in the interval 9% to 12%. --Rupert 03:02, 12 April 2009 (BST)
Latest
These results were collected starting April '09 or so. --Rupert 02:48, 12 April 2009 (BST)
By Building
| building_type | cond | lights | searches | item | count | percent | 50% confidence |
90% confidence |
AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| auto repair | okay | lit | 684 | nothing | 519 | 75.9% | -1.1/+1.1% | -2.8/+2.6% | 1.3 |
| spray can | 40 | 5.8% | -0.5/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.6% | 17.2 | ||||
| fuel can | 40 | 5.8% | -0.5/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.6% | 17.2 | ||||
| crowbar | 34 | 5.0% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.3/+1.5% | 20.0 | ||||
| bottle of beer | 16 | 2.3% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.1% | 43.5 | ||||
| fire axe | 16 | 2.3% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.1% | 43.5 | ||||
| toolbox | 11 | 1.6% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.7/+0.9% | 62.5 | ||||
| newspaper | 8 | 1.2% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.6/+0.8% | 83.3 | ||||
| dark | 273 | nothing | 215 | 78.8% | -1.7/+1.6% | -4.3/+3.8% | 1.3 | ||
| fuel can | 16 | 5.9% | -1.0/+1.0% | -2.1/+2.6% | 16.9 | ||||
| spray can | 15 | 5.5% | -0.9/+1.0% | -2.0/+2.6% | 18.2 | ||||
| crowbar | 15 | 5.5% | -0.9/+1.0% | -2.0/+2.6% | 18.2 | ||||
| newspaper | 5 | 1.8% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.0/+1.7% | 55.6 | ||||
| toolbox | 4 | 1.5% | -0.5/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.5% | 66.7 | ||||
| fire axe | 3 | 1.1% | -0.4/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.4% | 90.9 | ||||
| factory | okay | lit | 536 | nothing | 397 | 74.1% | -1.3/+1.2% | -3.2/+3.0% | 1.3 |
| length of pipe | 37 | 6.9% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+2.0% | 14.5 | ||||
| fuel can | 27 | 5.0% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.4/+1.7% | 20.0 | ||||
| toolbox | 23 | 4.3% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.3/+1.6% | 23.3 | ||||
| crowbar | 19 | 3.5% | -0.5/+0.6% | -1.1/+1.5% | 28.6 | ||||
| portable generator | 18 | 3.4% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.2/+1.4% | 29.4 | ||||
| fire axe | 15 | 2.8% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.0/+1.3% | 35.7 | ||||
| hospital | okay | lit | 2012 | nothing | 1505 | 74.8% | -0.7/+0.7% | -1.6/+1.6% | 1.3 |
| first-aid kit | 507 | 25.2% | -0.7/+0.7% | -1.6/+1.6% | 4.0 | ||||
| dark | 1410 | nothing | 1130 | 80.1% | -0.7/+0.8% | -1.7/+1.8% | 1.2 | ||
| first-aid kit | 280 | 19.9% | -0.8/+0.7% | -1.8/+1.7% | 5.0 | ||||
| necrotech | okay | lit | 488 | nothing | 375 | 76.8% | -1.3/+1.3% | -3.2/+3.1% | 1.3 |
| syringe | 65 | 13.3% | -1.0/+1.1% | -2.4/+2.7% | 7.5 | ||||
| DNA extractor | 27 | 5.5% | -0.6/+0.8% | -1.5/+1.9% | 18.2 | ||||
| GPS unit | 21 | 4.3% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.7% | 23.3 | ||||
| dark | 458 | nothing | 365 | 79.7% | -1.3/+1.2% | -3.2/+3.0% | 1.3 | ||
| syringe | 59 | 12.9% | -1.0/+1.1% | -2.4/+2.7% | 7.8 | ||||
| GPS unit | 19 | 4.1% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.3/+1.8% | 24.4 | ||||
| DNA extractor | 15 | 3.3% | -0.6/+0.6% | -1.2/+1.5% | 30.3 | ||||
| ruined | dark | 53 | nothing | 47 | 88.7% | -3.2/+2.7% | -8.4/+5.8% | 1.1 | |
| syringe | 4 | 7.5% | -2.2/+2.7% | -4.5/+7.5% | 13.3 | ||||
| GPS unit | 1 | 1.9% | -1.1/+1.7% | -1.7/+5.2% | 52.6 | ||||
| DNA extractor | 1 | 1.9% | -1.1/+1.7% | -1.7/+5.2% | 52.6 | ||||
| police dept | okay | lit | 552 | nothing | 409 | 74.1% | -1.3/+1.2% | -3.1/+3.0% | 1.3 |
| shotgun shell | 43 | 7.8% | -0.8/+0.8% | -1.8/+2.0% | 12.8 | ||||
| pistol clip | 37 | 6.7% | -0.7/+0.7% | -1.6/+1.9% | 14.9 | ||||
| pistol | 16 | 2.9% | -0.5/+0.5% | -1.0/+1.3% | 34.5 | ||||
| flare gun | 14 | 2.5% | -0.4/+0.5% | -0.9/+1.3% | 40.0 | ||||
| shotgun | 12 | 2.2% | -0.4/+0.4% | -0.9/+1.2% | 45.5 | ||||
| flak jacket | 11 | 2.0% | -0.4/+0.4% | -0.8/+1.1% | 50.0 | ||||
| radio | 10 | 1.8% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.8/+1.1% | 55.6 | ||||
| dark | 519 | nothing | 421 | 81.1% | -1.2/+1.2% | -2.9/+2.7% | 1.2 | ||
| pistol clip | 33 | 6.4% | -0.7/+0.7% | -1.7/+1.9% | 15.6 | ||||
| shotgun shell | 26 | 5.0% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.4/+1.7% | 20.0 | ||||
| shotgun | 9 | 1.7% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.2% | 58.8 | ||||
| flare gun | 9 | 1.7% | -0.3/+0.5% | -0.8/+1.2% | 58.8 | ||||
| pistol | 8 | 1.5% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.7/+1.1% | 66.7 | ||||
| radio | 7 | 1.3% | -0.3/+0.4% | -0.6/+1.1% | 76.9 | ||||
| flak jacket | 6 | 1.2% | -0.3/+0.3% | -0.7/+0.9% | 83.3 | ||||
| streets | - | - | 1 | nothing | 1 | 99.9% | -29.3/+0.0% | -68.4/+0.1% | 1.0 |
--Rupert 06:30, 20 April 2009 (BST)
Mall
| building_type | cond | lights | bargain | searches | item | count | percent | 50% confidence |
90% confidence |
AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mall_drug_store | okay | lit | bargain | 907 | nothing | 754 | 83.1% | -0.8/+0.9% | -2.1/+2.0% | 1.2 |
| first-aid kit | 153 | 16.9% | -0.9/+0.8% | -2.0/+2.1% | 5.9 | |||||
| no bargain | 913 | nothing | 829 | 90.8% | -0.7/+0.6% | -1.7/+1.5% | 1.1 | |||
| first-aid kit | 84 | 9.2% | -0.6/+0.7% | -1.5/+1.7% | 10.9 | |||||
| mall_gun_store | okay | lit | bargain | 208 | nothing | 108 | 51.9% | -2.3/+2.3% | -5.7/+5.7% | 1.9 |
| pistol clip | 37 | 17.8% | -1.7/+1.8% | -4.1/+4.6% | 5.6 | |||||
| shotgun shell | 33 | 15.9% | -1.7/+1.7% | -3.9/+4.4% | 6.3 | |||||
| shotgun | 18 | 8.7% | -1.3/+1.3% | -2.9/+3.5% | 11.5 | |||||
| pistol | 12 | 5.8% | -1.1/+1.1% | -2.3/+3.0% | 17.2 | |||||
| no bargain | 254 | nothing | 187 | 73.6% | -1.9/+1.9% | -4.7/+4.4% | 1.4 | |||
| pistol clip | 23 | 9.1% | -1.2/+1.2% | -2.7/+3.2% | 11.0 | |||||
| shotgun shell | 21 | 8.3% | -1.1/+1.2% | -2.6/+3.1% | 12.0 | |||||
| shotgun | 15 | 5.9% | -0.9/+1.1% | -2.1/+2.8% | 16.9 | |||||
| pistol | 8 | 3.1% | -0.6/+0.9% | -1.4/+2.2% | 32.3 | |||||
| mall_tech_store | okay | lit | no bargain | 39 | nothing | 32 | 82.1% | -4.4/+3.8% | -11.3/+8.4% | 1.2 |
| radio | 3 | 7.7% | -2.6/+3.2% | -5.1/+9.0% | 13.0 | |||||
| radio transmitter | 3 | 7.7% | -2.6/+3.2% | -5.1/+9.0% | 13.0 | |||||
| mobile phone | 1 | 2.6% | -1.4/+2.2% | -2.4/+6.9% | 38.5 | |||||
--Rupert 06:31, 20 April 2009 (BST)
