Guides:Kill Probability

The following charts show the probability that a target will be killed after a certain number of attacks. This is useful to know when you want to avoid being tracked by the Scent Trail zombie skill, which could lead an injured zombie (and his horde) to your safehouse.

Note that the number of attacks is the basis for these figures -- not the number of AP. Remember to take reloads into account when using these charts.

Figures given in percentages.
-- indicates no chance of killing.
<< indicates less than 0.05%.
>> indicates 99.95% or greater.

Firearms

Pistol

# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Pistol Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
10		--	--	--	0.3	--	--	--	1.3	--	--	--	10
11		--	--	--	1.4	--	--	--	6.1	--	--	--	11
12	<<		--	--	4.2	0.1	--	--	15.1	0.6	--	--	12
13	0.1			--	9.3	0.5	<<	--	27.8	3.0	0.4	--	13
14	0.2			--	16.7	1.7	0.3	--	42.3	8.4	2.1	--	14
15	0.4				26.1	4.2	1.1	<<	56.4	17.3	6.2	0.2	15
16	0.7	<<			36.6	8.5	2.8	0.1	68.8	28.9	13.4	1.0	16
17	1.3	0.1			47.4	14.7	6.0	0.4	78.7	42.0	23.5	3.3	17
18	2.1	0.1	<<		57.8	22.6	10.8	1.2	86.1	54.9	35.5	7.8	18
19	3.3	0.3	0.1		67.1	31.7	17.3	2.8	91.3	66.6	48.1	15.0	19
20	4.8	0.5	0.1		75.1	41.4	25.2	5.5	94.7	76.2	60.1	24.5	20
21	6.8	0.9	0.2		81.6	51.2	34.1	9.6	96.9	83.8	70.6	35.7	21
22	9.2	1.4	0.4		86.7	60.4	43.5	15.2	98.2	89.3	79.2	47.4	22
23	12.0	2.1	0.7	<<	90.6	68.7	52.8	22.0	99.0	93.2	85.8	58.6	23
24	15.3	3.1	1.2	0.1	93.5	75.8	61.5	29.9	99.5	95.8	90.6	68.7	24
25	18.9	4.4	1.7	0.2	95.6	81.7	69.4	38.4	99.7	97.5	94.0	77.1	25
26	23.0	6.0	2.6	0.3	97.1	86.5	76.2	47.1	99.8	98.5	96.2	83.8	26
27	27.2	8.0	3.6	0.5	98.1	90.2	81.9	55.6	99.9	99.1	97.7	88.9	27
28	31.8	10.3	4.9	0.8	98.8	93.0	86.5	63.6	>>	99.5	98.6	92.6	28
29	36.4	12.9	6.5	1.2	99.2	95.1	90.1	70.7		99.7	99.2	95.2	29
# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Pistol Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
30	41.1	15.9	8.4	1.7	99.5	96.7	92.9	76.9		99.9	99.5	97.0	30
31	45.8	19.2	10.7	2.4	99.7	97.7	94.9	82.2		99.9	99.7	98.1	31
32	50.5	22.8	13.3	3.3	99.8	98.5	96.5	86.5		>>	99.9	98.9	32
33	55.0	26.7	16.1	4.4	99.9	99.0	97.6	89.9			99.9	99.3	33
34	59.4	30.7	19.3	5.7	99.9	99.4	98.4	92.6			>>	99.6	34
35	63.5	34.8	22.7	7.3	>>	99.6	98.9	94.6				99.8	35
36	67.5	39.1	26.3	9.2		99.7	99.3	96.2				99.9	36
37	71.1	43.4	30.2	11.3		99.8	99.5	97.3				99.9	37
38	74.5	47.6	34.1	13.7		99.9	99.7	98.1				>>	38
39	77.6	51.8	38.2	16.4		99.9	99.8	98.7					39
40	80.4	55.9	42.3	19.3		>>	99.9	99.1					40
41	83.0	59.9	46.4	22.4			99.9	99.4					41
42	85.2	63.7	50.4	25.7			>>	99.6					42
43	87.3	67.3	54.4	29.2				99.8					43
44	89.1	70.6	58.3	32.8				99.8					44
45	90.7	73.8	62.0	36.5				99.9					45
46	92.1	76.7	65.5	40.3				99.9					46
47	93.3	79.4	68.9	44.1				>>					47
48	94.3	81.9	72.0	47.9									48
49	95.2	84.1	75.0	51.6									49
50	96.0	86.1	77.7	55.3									50
# of Shots	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Pistol Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)

Shotgun

# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Shotgun Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
5	0.2	--	--	--	5.0	--	--	--	11.6	--	--	--	5
6	1.1	0.1	--	--	16.4	2.8	--	--	31.9	7.5	--	--	6
7	2.9	0.4	<<	--	31.6	10.2	1.5	--	53.2	23.4	4.9	--	7
8	5.8	1.1	0.1	<<	47.7	22.0	6.3	0.8	70.6	42.8	16.9	3.2	8
9	9.9	2.5	0.4	<<	62.1	36.1	15.0	3.9	82.8	60.9	33.7	12.1	9
10	15.0	4.7	1.1	0.2	73.8	50.4	26.6	10.0	90.5	75.1	51.4	26.2	10
11	21.0	7.8	2.2	0.4	82.6	63.3	39.7	19.1	95.0	85.1	66.8	42.6	11
12	27.6	11.8	3.9	0.9	88.8	73.9	52.7	30.4	97.4	91.5	78.7	58.3	12
13	34.6	16.5	6.2	1.8	93.0	82.1	64.4	42.7	98.7	95.4	87.1	71.6	13
14	41.6	21.9	9.3	3.1	95.7	88.1	74.1	54.6	99.4	97.6	92.5	81.6	14
15	48.5	27.8	13.1	5.0	97.5	92.3	81.8	65.4	99.7	98.8	95.8	88.7	15
16	55.0	34.0	17.5	7.4	98.5	95.1	87.6	74.4	99.9	99.4	97.7	93.3	16
17	61.1	40.3	22.5	10.5	99.1	97.0	91.7	81.7	99.9	99.7	98.8	96.2	17
18	66.7	46.6	27.8	14.1	99.5	98.2	94.6	87.2	>>	99.9	99.4	97.9	18
19	71.8	52.6	33.4	18.2	99.7	98.9	96.6	91.3	>>	99.9	99.7	98.9	19
20	76.2	58.4	39.2	22.8	99.8	99.4	97.9	94.2	>>	>>	99.8	99.4	20
21	80.2	63.7	44.9	27.7	99.9	99.6	98.7	96.2	>>	>>	99.9	99.7	21
22	83.5	68.7	50.6	32.9	>>	99.8	99.2	97.6	>>	>>	>>	99.8	22
23	86.4	73.1	56.0	38.2	>>	99.9	99.5	98.5	>>	>>	>>	99.9	23
24	88.9	77.1	61.1	43.5	>>	99.9	99.7	99.0	>>	>>	>>	>>	24
25	91.0	80.7	65.9	48.8	>>	>>	99.8	99.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	25
26	92.7	83.7	70.3	54.0	>>	>>	99.9	99.6	>>	>>	>>	>>	26
27	94.1	86.4	74.4	58.9	>>	>>	99.9	99.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	27
# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Shotgun Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
28	95.3	88.7	78.0	63.5	>>	>>	>>	99.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	28
29	96.2	90.7	81.2	67.9	>>	>>	>>	99.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	29
30	97.0	92.3	84.0	71.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	30
31	97.6	93.7	86.5	75.5	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	31
32	98.1	94.9	88.7	78.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	32
33	98.5	95.9	90.6	81.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	33
34	98.8	96.7	92.1	84.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	34
35	99.1	97.3	93.5	86.7	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	35
36	99.3	97.8	94.6	88.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	36
37	99.4	98.3	95.6	90.5	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	37
38	99.6	98.6	96.4	92.1	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	38
39	99.7	98.9	97.1	93.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	39
40	99.7	99.1	97.6	94.5	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	40
41	99.8	99.3	98.1	95.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	41
42	99.8	99.5	98.5	96.2	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	42
43	99.9	99.6	98.8	96.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	43
44	99.9	99.7	99.0	97.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	44
45	99.9	99.7	99.2	97.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	45
46	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.3	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	46
47	>>	99.8	99.5	98.6	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	47
48	>>	99.9	99.6	98.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	48
49	>>	99.9	99.7	99.1	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	49
50	>>	99.9	99.8	99.3	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	50
# of Shots	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Shotgun Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)

Melee Weapons

Fire Axe

# of Attacks	Hand to Hand (25% hit)		Axe Proficiency (40% hit)		# of Attacks
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
22	<<	<<	<<	<<	22
23	<<	<<	0.1	<<	23
24	<<	<<	0.2	<<	24
25	<<	<<	0.4	<<	25
26	<<	<<	0.8	<<	26
27	<<	<<	1.3	<<	27
28	<<	<<	2.2	0.1	28
29	<<	<<	3.3	0.2	29
30	<<	<<	4.8	0.3	30
31	<<	<<	6.8	0.5	31
32	0.1	<<	9.2	0.8	32
33	0.1	<<	12.1	1.3	33
34	0.1	<<	15.5	2.0	34
35	0.2	<<	19.3	3.0	35
36	0.3	<<	23.6	4.3	36
37	0.5	<<	28.2	5.9	37
38	0.6	<<	33.0	7.8	38
39	0.9	<<	38.1	10.2	39
40	1.2	0.1	43.2	13.0	40
41	1.5	0.1	48.3	16.1	41
42	2.0	0.1	53.3	19.7	42
43	2.5	0.2	58.2	23.6	43
44	3.2	0.3	62.9	27.7	44
45	3.9	0.3	67.3	32.1	45
46	4.8	0.5	71.4	36.7	46
47	5.9	0.6	75.1	41.4	47
48	7.0	0.8	78.6	46.1	48
49	8.4	1.1	81.6	50.8	49
50	9.8	1.4	84.4	55.4	50
# of Attacks	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Attacks
	Hand to Hand (25% hit)		Axe Proficiency (40% hit)

Knife

# of Attacks	Hand to Hand (35% hit)		Knife Combat (50% hit)		# of Attacks
	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP
31	<<	<<	<<	<<	31
32	<<	<<	0.1	<<	32
33	<<	<<	0.2	<<	33
34	<<	<<	0.5	<<	34
35	<<	<<	0.8	<<	35
36	<<	<<	1.4	<<	36
37	<<	<<	2.4	<<	37
38	<<	<<	3.6	<<	38
39	<<	<<	5.4	0.1	39
40	<<	<<	7.7	0.1	40
41	0.1	<<	10.6	0.2	41
42	0.1	<<	14.0	0.4	42
43	0.2	<<	18.0	0.7	43
44	0.3	<<	22.6	1.1	44
45	0.4	<<	27.6	1.8	45
46	0.6	<<	32.9	2.7	46
47	0.8	<<	38.5	3.9	47
48	1.1	<<	44.3	5.6	48
49	1.5	<<	50.0	7.6	49
50	2.1	<<	55.6	10.1	50
# of Attacks	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP	# of Attacks
	Hand to Hand (35% hit)		Knife Combat (50% hit)

Zombie Attacks

The tables below do not take into account the Tangling Grasp zombie skill, which gives a 10% hit bonus for subsequent attacks after a successful Claw attack.

Claw

# of Attacks	Base (25% hit)				Vigour Mortis (35% hit)				Death Grip (50% hit)				# of Attacks
	w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
19	--	--	<<	--	--	--	<<	--	--	--	<<	--	19
20	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	0.1	<<	20
21	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	0.4	<<	21
22	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	0.8	<<	22
23	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	1.7	<<	23
24	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	3.2	0.1	24
25	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.1	<<	<<	--	5.4	0.2	25
26	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.2	<<	<<	--	8.4	0.5	26
27	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.3	<<	<<	--	12.4	1.0	27
28	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.5	<<	<<	--	17.2	1.8	28
29	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.8	<<	<<	--	22.9	3.1	29
30	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	1.2	<<	<<	<<	29.2	4.9	30
31	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	1.9	0.1	<<	<<	36.0	7.5	31
32	<<	<<	0.1	<<	<<	<<	2.7	0.1	0.1	<<	43.0	10.8	32
33	<<	<<	0.1	<<	<<	<<	3.8	0.2	0.2	<<	50.0	14.8	33
34	<<	<<	0.1	<<	<<	<<	5.1	0.4	0.5	<<	56.8	19.6	34
35	<<	<<	0.2	<<	<<	<<	6.8	0.6	0.8	<<	63.2	25.0	35
36	<<	<<	0.3	<<	<<	<<	8.8	0.9	1.4	<<	69.1	30.9	36
37	<<	<<	0.5	<<	<<	<<	11.2	1.4	2.4	<<	74.4	37.1	37
38	<<	<<	0.6	<<	<<	<<	13.9	1.9	3.6	<<	79.1	43.6	38
39	<<	<<	0.9	<<	<<	<<	16.9	2.7	5.4	0.1	83.2	50.0	39
40	<<	<<	1.2	0.1	<<	<<	20.2	3.6	7.7	0.1	86.6	56.3	40
41	<<	<<	1.5	0.1	0.1	<<	23.8	4.8	10.6	0.2	89.4	62.2	41
42	<<	<<	2.0	0.1	0.1	<<	27.7	6.2	14.0	0.4	91.8	67.8	42
43	<<	<<	2.5	0.2	0.2	<<	31.7	7.9	18.0	0.7	93.7	72.9	43
44	<<	<<	3.2	0.3	0.3	<<	35.9	9.9	22.6	1.1	95.2	77.4	44
45	<<	<<	3.9	0.3	0.4	<<	40.2	12.1	27.6	1.8	96.4	81.4	45
46	<<	<<	4.8	0.5	0.6	<<	44.5	14.7	32.9	2.7	97.3	84.9	46
47	<<	<<	5.9	0.6	0.8	<<	48.8	17.5	38.5	3.9	98.0	87.9	47
48	<<	<<	7.0	0.8	1.1	<<	53.0	20.6	44.3	5.6	98.5	90.3	48
49	<<	<<	8.4	1.1	1.5	<<	57.1	23.9	50.0	7.6	98.9	92.4	49
50	<<	<<	9.8	1.4	2.1	<<	61.1	27.4	55.6	10.1	99.2	94.1	50
# of Attacks	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Attacks
	w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh
	Base (25% hit)				Vigour Mortis (35% hit)				Death Grip (50% hit)

Bite

# of Attacks	Vigour Mortis (20% hit)		Neck Lurch (30% hit)		# of Attacks
	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP
18	<<	<<	<<	<<	18
19	<<	<<	0.1	<<	19
20	<<	<<	0.1	<<	20
21	<<	<<	0.2	<<	21
22	<<	<<	0.4	<<	22
23	<<	<<	0.7	0.1	23
24	<<	<<	1.2	0.1	24
25	<<	<<	1.7	0.2	25
26	0.1	<<	2.6	0.3	26
27	0.1	<<	3.6	0.5	27
28	0.1	<<	4.9	0.8	28
29	0.2	<<	6.5	1.2	29
30	0.3	<<	8.4	1.7	30
31	0.4	<<	10.7	2.4	31
32	0.6	0.1	13.3	3.3	32
33	0.8	0.1	16.1	4.4	33
34	1.1	0.1	19.3	5.7	34
35	1.4	0.2	22.7	7.3	35
36	1.8	0.2	26.3	9.2	36
37	2.3	0.3	30.2	11.3	37
38	2.9	0.5	34.1	13.7	38
39	3.5	0.6	38.2	16.4	39
40	4.3	0.8	42.3	19.3	40
41	5.2	1.0	46.4	22.4	41
42	6.2	1.3	50.4	25.7	42
43	7.3	1.6	54.4	29.2	43
44	8.6	2.0	58.3	32.8	44
45	9.9	2.5	62.0	36.5	45
46	11.4	3.0	65.5	40.3	46
47	13.1	3.7	68.9	44.1	47
48	14.8	4.4	72.0	47.9	48
49	16.6	5.2	75.0	51.6	49
50	18.6	6.1	77.7	55.3	50
# of Attacks	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP	# of Attacks
	Vigour Mortis (20% hit)		Neck Lurch (30% hit)

Mathematics

How These Figures were Calculated

For any number of attacks a, the probability that a target will be killed P_K, is given by the following formula, where P_H is the chance to hit in one attack and h is the number of hits required to kill.

The tables themselves were constructed using a short javascript program.

Great, but is it Accurate?

To test the accuracy of this data, a simulation of tens of thousands of combats was conducted. Below is a typical extract of the data, representing 10,000 pistol combats with Basic Firearms Training, against each of four targets (with and without bodybuilding; with and without flak jackets), compared to the theoretical results:

# of Shots	With Flak Jacket				Without Flak Jacket				# of Shots
	50 HP		60 HP		50 HP		60 HP
	Actual	Theory	Actual	Theory	Actual	Theory	Actual	Theory
20	5.4	4.8	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	<<	20
30	40.9	41.1	15.7	15.9	8.6	8.4	1.8	1.7	30
40	80.8	80.4	56.3	55.9	42.2	42.3	19.1	19.3	40
50	96.2	96.0	86.6	86.1	78.3	77.7	55.5	55.3	50