Guides:Kill Probability
The following charts show the probability that a target will be killed after a certain number of attacks. This is useful to know when you want to avoid being tracked by the Scent Trail zombie skill, which could lead an injured zombie (and his horde) to your safehouse.
Note that the number of attacks is the basis for these figures -- not the number of AP. Remember to take reloads into account when using these charts.
Figures given in percentages.
-- indicates no chance of killing.
<< indicates less than 0.05%.
>> indicates 99.95% or greater.
Firearms
Pistol
# of
ShotsBasic Firearms (30% hit) Pistol Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shotsw/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 10 -- -- -- 0.3 -- -- -- 1.3 -- -- -- 10 11 -- -- -- 1.4 -- -- -- 6.1 -- -- -- 11 12 << -- -- 4.2 0.1 -- -- 15.1 0.6 -- -- 12 13 0.1 -- 9.3 0.5 << -- 27.8 3.0 0.4 -- 13 14 0.2 -- 16.7 1.7 0.3 -- 42.3 8.4 2.1 -- 14 15 0.4 26.1 4.2 1.1 << 56.4 17.3 6.2 0.2 15 16 0.7 << 36.6 8.5 2.8 0.1 68.8 28.9 13.4 1.0 16 17 1.3 0.1 47.4 14.7 6.0 0.4 78.7 42.0 23.5 3.3 17 18 2.1 0.1 << 57.8 22.6 10.8 1.2 86.1 54.9 35.5 7.8 18 19 3.3 0.3 0.1 67.1 31.7 17.3 2.8 91.3 66.6 48.1 15.0 19 20 4.8 0.5 0.1 75.1 41.4 25.2 5.5 94.7 76.2 60.1 24.5 20 21 6.8 0.9 0.2 81.6 51.2 34.1 9.6 96.9 83.8 70.6 35.7 21 22 9.2 1.4 0.4 86.7 60.4 43.5 15.2 98.2 89.3 79.2 47.4 22 23 12.0 2.1 0.7 << 90.6 68.7 52.8 22.0 99.0 93.2 85.8 58.6 23 24 15.3 3.1 1.2 0.1 93.5 75.8 61.5 29.9 99.5 95.8 90.6 68.7 24 25 18.9 4.4 1.7 0.2 95.6 81.7 69.4 38.4 99.7 97.5 94.0 77.1 25 26 23.0 6.0 2.6 0.3 97.1 86.5 76.2 47.1 99.8 98.5 96.2 83.8 26 27 27.2 8.0 3.6 0.5 98.1 90.2 81.9 55.6 99.9 99.1 97.7 88.9 27 28 31.8 10.3 4.9 0.8 98.8 93.0 86.5 63.6 >> 99.5 98.6 92.6 28 29 36.4 12.9 6.5 1.2 99.2 95.1 90.1 70.7 99.7 99.2 95.2 29 # of
ShotsBasic Firearms (30% hit) Pistol Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shotsw/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 30 41.1 15.9 8.4 1.7 99.5 96.7 92.9 76.9 99.9 99.5 97.0 30 31 45.8 19.2 10.7 2.4 99.7 97.7 94.9 82.2 99.9 99.7 98.1 31 32 50.5 22.8 13.3 3.3 99.8 98.5 96.5 86.5 >> 99.9 98.9 32 33 55.0 26.7 16.1 4.4 99.9 99.0 97.6 89.9 99.9 99.3 33 34 59.4 30.7 19.3 5.7 99.9 99.4 98.4 92.6 >> 99.6 34 35 63.5 34.8 22.7 7.3 >> 99.6 98.9 94.6 99.8 35 36 67.5 39.1 26.3 9.2 99.7 99.3 96.2 99.9 36 37 71.1 43.4 30.2 11.3 99.8 99.5 97.3 99.9 37 38 74.5 47.6 34.1 13.7 99.9 99.7 98.1 >> 38 39 77.6 51.8 38.2 16.4 99.9 99.8 98.7 39 40 80.4 55.9 42.3 19.3 >> 99.9 99.1 40 41 83.0 59.9 46.4 22.4 99.9 99.4 41 42 85.2 63.7 50.4 25.7 >> 99.6 42 43 87.3 67.3 54.4 29.2 99.8 43 44 89.1 70.6 58.3 32.8 99.8 44 45 90.7 73.8 62.0 36.5 99.9 45 46 92.1 76.7 65.5 40.3 99.9 46 47 93.3 79.4 68.9 44.1 >> 47 48 94.3 81.9 72.0 47.9 48 49 95.2 84.1 75.0 51.6 49 50 96.0 86.1 77.7 55.3 50 # of
Shots50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Shotsw/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak Basic Firearms (30% hit) Pistol Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit)
Shotgun
# of
ShotsBasic Firearms (30% hit) Shotgun Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shotsw/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 5 0.2 -- -- -- 5.0 -- -- -- 11.6 -- -- -- 5 6 1.1 0.1 -- -- 16.4 2.8 -- -- 31.9 7.5 -- -- 6 7 2.9 0.4 << -- 31.6 10.2 1.5 -- 53.2 23.4 4.9 -- 7 8 5.8 1.1 0.1 << 47.7 22.0 6.3 0.8 70.6 42.8 16.9 3.2 8 9 9.9 2.5 0.4 << 62.1 36.1 15.0 3.9 82.8 60.9 33.7 12.1 9 10 15.0 4.7 1.1 0.2 73.8 50.4 26.6 10.0 90.5 75.1 51.4 26.2 10 11 21.0 7.8 2.2 0.4 82.6 63.3 39.7 19.1 95.0 85.1 66.8 42.6 11 12 27.6 11.8 3.9 0.9 88.8 73.9 52.7 30.4 97.4 91.5 78.7 58.3 12 13 34.6 16.5 6.2 1.8 93.0 82.1 64.4 42.7 98.7 95.4 87.1 71.6 13 14 41.6 21.9 9.3 3.1 95.7 88.1 74.1 54.6 99.4 97.6 92.5 81.6 14 15 48.5 27.8 13.1 5.0 97.5 92.3 81.8 65.4 99.7 98.8 95.8 88.7 15 16 55.0 34.0 17.5 7.4 98.5 95.1 87.6 74.4 99.9 99.4 97.7 93.3 16 17 61.1 40.3 22.5 10.5 99.1 97.0 91.7 81.7 99.9 99.7 98.8 96.2 17 18 66.7 46.6 27.8 14.1 99.5 98.2 94.6 87.2 >> 99.9 99.4 97.9 18 19 71.8 52.6 33.4 18.2 99.7 98.9 96.6 91.3 >> 99.9 99.7 98.9 19 20 76.2 58.4 39.2 22.8 99.8 99.4 97.9 94.2 >> >> 99.8 99.4 20 21 80.2 63.7 44.9 27.7 99.9 99.6 98.7 96.2 >> >> 99.9 99.7 21 22 83.5 68.7 50.6 32.9 >> 99.8 99.2 97.6 >> >> >> 99.8 22 23 86.4 73.1 56.0 38.2 >> 99.9 99.5 98.5 >> >> >> 99.9 23 24 88.9 77.1 61.1 43.5 >> 99.9 99.7 99.0 >> >> >> >> 24 25 91.0 80.7 65.9 48.8 >> >> 99.8 99.4 >> >> >> >> 25 26 92.7 83.7 70.3 54.0 >> >> 99.9 99.6 >> >> >> >> 26 27 94.1 86.4 74.4 58.9 >> >> 99.9 99.8 >> >> >> >> 27 # of
ShotsBasic Firearms (30% hit) Shotgun Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit) # of
Shotsw/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 28 95.3 88.7 78.0 63.5 >> >> >> 99.9 >> >> >> >> 28 29 96.2 90.7 81.2 67.9 >> >> >> 99.9 >> >> >> >> 29 30 97.0 92.3 84.0 71.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 30 31 97.6 93.7 86.5 75.5 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 31 32 98.1 94.9 88.7 78.8 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 32 33 98.5 95.9 90.6 81.8 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 33 34 98.8 96.7 92.1 84.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 34 35 99.1 97.3 93.5 86.7 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 35 36 99.3 97.8 94.6 88.8 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 36 37 99.4 98.3 95.6 90.5 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 37 38 99.6 98.6 96.4 92.1 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 38 39 99.7 98.9 97.1 93.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 39 40 99.7 99.1 97.6 94.5 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 40 41 99.8 99.3 98.1 95.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 41 42 99.8 99.5 98.5 96.2 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 42 43 99.9 99.6 98.8 96.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 43 44 99.9 99.7 99.0 97.4 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 44 45 99.9 99.7 99.2 97.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 45 46 99.9 99.8 99.4 98.3 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 46 47 >> 99.8 99.5 98.6 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 47 48 >> 99.9 99.6 98.9 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 48 49 >> 99.9 99.7 99.1 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 49 50 >> 99.9 99.8 99.3 >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 50 # of
Shots50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Shotsw/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak w/o Flak w/ Flak Basic Firearms (30% hit) Shotgun Training (55% hit) Adv. Training (65% hit)
Melee Weapons
Fire Axe
# of
AttacksHand to Hand (25% hit) Axe Proficiency (40% hit) # of
Attacks50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 22 << << << << 22 23 << << 0.1 << 23 24 << << 0.2 << 24 25 << << 0.4 << 25 26 << << 0.8 << 26 27 << << 1.3 << 27 28 << << 2.2 0.1 28 29 << << 3.3 0.2 29 30 << << 4.8 0.3 30 31 << << 6.8 0.5 31 32 0.1 << 9.2 0.8 32 33 0.1 << 12.1 1.3 33 34 0.1 << 15.5 2.0 34 35 0.2 << 19.3 3.0 35 36 0.3 << 23.6 4.3 36 37 0.5 << 28.2 5.9 37 38 0.6 << 33.0 7.8 38 39 0.9 << 38.1 10.2 39 40 1.2 0.1 43.2 13.0 40 41 1.5 0.1 48.3 16.1 41 42 2.0 0.1 53.3 19.7 42 43 2.5 0.2 58.2 23.6 43 44 3.2 0.3 62.9 27.7 44 45 3.9 0.3 67.3 32.1 45 46 4.8 0.5 71.4 36.7 46 47 5.9 0.6 75.1 41.4 47 48 7.0 0.8 78.6 46.1 48 49 8.4 1.1 81.6 50.8 49 50 9.8 1.4 84.4 55.4 50 # of
Attacks50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
AttacksHand to Hand (25% hit) Axe Proficiency (40% hit)
Knife
# of
AttacksHand to Hand (35% hit) Knife Combat (50% hit) # of
Attacks50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP 31 << << << << 31 32 << << 0.1 << 32 33 << << 0.2 << 33 34 << << 0.5 << 34 35 << << 0.8 << 35 36 << << 1.4 << 36 37 << << 2.4 << 37 38 << << 3.6 << 38 39 << << 5.4 0.1 39 40 << << 7.7 0.1 40 41 0.1 << 10.6 0.2 41 42 0.1 << 14.0 0.4 42 43 0.2 << 18.0 0.7 43 44 0.3 << 22.6 1.1 44 45 0.4 << 27.6 1.8 45 46 0.6 << 32.9 2.7 46 47 0.8 << 38.5 3.9 47 48 1.1 << 44.3 5.6 48 49 1.5 << 50.0 7.6 49 50 2.1 << 55.6 10.1 50 # of
Attacks50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP # of
AttacksHand to Hand (35% hit) Knife Combat (50% hit)
Zombie Attacks
The tables below do not take into account the Tangling Grasp zombie skill, which gives a 10% hit bonus for subsequent attacks after a successful Claw attack.
Claw
# of
AttacksBase (25% hit) Vigour Mortis (35% hit) Death Grip (50% hit) # of
Attacksw/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 19 -- -- << -- -- -- << -- -- -- << -- 19 20 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 0.1 << 20 21 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 0.4 << 21 22 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 0.8 << 22 23 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 1.7 << 23 24 -- -- << << -- -- << << -- -- 3.2 0.1 24 25 << -- << << << -- 0.1 << << -- 5.4 0.2 25 26 << -- << << << -- 0.2 << << -- 8.4 0.5 26 27 << -- << << << -- 0.3 << << -- 12.4 1.0 27 28 << -- << << << -- 0.5 << << -- 17.2 1.8 28 29 << -- << << << -- 0.8 << << -- 22.9 3.1 29 30 << << << << << << 1.2 << << << 29.2 4.9 30 31 << << << << << << 1.9 0.1 << << 36.0 7.5 31 32 << << 0.1 << << << 2.7 0.1 0.1 << 43.0 10.8 32 33 << << 0.1 << << << 3.8 0.2 0.2 << 50.0 14.8 33 34 << << 0.1 << << << 5.1 0.4 0.5 << 56.8 19.6 34 35 << << 0.2 << << << 6.8 0.6 0.8 << 63.2 25.0 35 36 << << 0.3 << << << 8.8 0.9 1.4 << 69.1 30.9 36 37 << << 0.5 << << << 11.2 1.4 2.4 << 74.4 37.1 37 38 << << 0.6 << << << 13.9 1.9 3.6 << 79.1 43.6 38 39 << << 0.9 << << << 16.9 2.7 5.4 0.1 83.2 50.0 39 40 << << 1.2 0.1 << << 20.2 3.6 7.7 0.1 86.6 56.3 40 41 << << 1.5 0.1 0.1 << 23.8 4.8 10.6 0.2 89.4 62.2 41 42 << << 2.0 0.1 0.1 << 27.7 6.2 14.0 0.4 91.8 67.8 42 43 << << 2.5 0.2 0.2 << 31.7 7.9 18.0 0.7 93.7 72.9 43 44 << << 3.2 0.3 0.3 << 35.9 9.9 22.6 1.1 95.2 77.4 44 45 << << 3.9 0.3 0.4 << 40.2 12.1 27.6 1.8 96.4 81.4 45 46 << << 4.8 0.5 0.6 << 44.5 14.7 32.9 2.7 97.3 84.9 46 47 << << 5.9 0.6 0.8 << 48.8 17.5 38.5 3.9 98.0 87.9 47 48 << << 7.0 0.8 1.1 << 53.0 20.6 44.3 5.6 98.5 90.3 48 49 << << 8.4 1.1 1.5 << 57.1 23.9 50.0 7.6 98.9 92.4 49 50 << << 9.8 1.4 2.1 << 61.1 27.4 55.6 10.1 99.2 94.1 50 # of
Attacks50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP 50HP 60HP # of
Attacksw/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh w/o Rend Flesh w/ Rend Flesh Base (25% hit) Vigour Mortis (35% hit) Death Grip (50% hit)
Bite
# of
AttacksVigour Mortis (20% hit) Neck Lurch (30% hit) # of
Attacks50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP 18 << << << << 18 19 << << 0.1 << 19 20 << << 0.1 << 20 21 << << 0.2 << 21 22 << << 0.4 << 22 23 << << 0.7 0.1 23 24 << << 1.2 0.1 24 25 << << 1.7 0.2 25 26 0.1 << 2.6 0.3 26 27 0.1 << 3.6 0.5 27 28 0.1 << 4.9 0.8 28 29 0.2 << 6.5 1.2 29 30 0.3 << 8.4 1.7 30 31 0.4 << 10.7 2.4 31 32 0.6 0.1 13.3 3.3 32 33 0.8 0.1 16.1 4.4 33 34 1.1 0.1 19.3 5.7 34 35 1.4 0.2 22.7 7.3 35 36 1.8 0.2 26.3 9.2 36 37 2.3 0.3 30.2 11.3 37 38 2.9 0.5 34.1 13.7 38 39 3.5 0.6 38.2 16.4 39 40 4.3 0.8 42.3 19.3 40 41 5.2 1.0 46.4 22.4 41 42 6.2 1.3 50.4 25.7 42 43 7.3 1.6 54.4 29.2 43 44 8.6 2.0 58.3 32.8 44 45 9.9 2.5 62.0 36.5 45 46 11.4 3.0 65.5 40.3 46 47 13.1 3.7 68.9 44.1 47 48 14.8 4.4 72.0 47.9 48 49 16.6 5.2 75.0 51.6 49 50 18.6 6.1 77.7 55.3 50 # of
Attacks50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP # of
AttacksVigour Mortis (20% hit) Neck Lurch (30% hit)
Mathematics
How These Figures were Calculated
For any number of attacks a, the probability that a target will be killed PK, is given by the following formula, where PH is the chance to hit in one attack and h is the number of hits required to kill.
The tables themselves were constructed using a short javascript program.
Great, but is it Accurate?
To test the accuracy of this data, a simulation of tens of thousands of combats was conducted. Below is a typical extract of the data, representing 10,000 pistol combats with Basic Firearms Training, against each of four targets (with and without bodybuilding; with and without flak jackets), compared to the theoretical results:
# of
ShotsWith Flak Jacket Without Flak Jacket # of
Shots50 HP 60 HP 50 HP 60 HP Actual Theory Actual Theory Actual Theory Actual Theory 20 5.4 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 << 20 30 40.9 41.1 15.7 15.9 8.6 8.4 1.8 1.7 30 40 80.8 80.4 56.3 55.9 42.2 42.3 19.1 19.3 40 50 96.2 96.0 86.6 86.1 78.3 77.7 55.5 55.3 50