Survivor-Zombie Imbalance

Still working on rewriting and reorganising the history. --  RoosterDragon  16:52, 2 February 2009 (UTC)

The Theories

There are popular theories concerning the best ratio of survivors to zombies.

Equal numbers of Zombies and Survivors

Rarely stated explicitly, but rather implied by the word "balance", this viewpoint holds that Malton's population should be split 50:50 between living and unliving. This would mean that members of both sides could easily find opponents. Often, people think that if one side numbers fewer than 50%, then it must have an inherent weakness, and so needs to be made more powerful. Game updates are often implemented to correct an uneven balance, but generally seem to only have a short term effect.

Zombies Heavily Outnumber Survivors

Considered to be particularly in-genre, here humans desperately try to survive against vastly larger numbers of zombies. The risk (or is that the opportunity?) here is that the zombies may wipe out the last of the survivors, and without survivors to play with or against, the game is over.

Let it be (Laissez-faire)

This view says it's best if neither search/barricade odds are adjusted, or suggestions implemented for the purpose of changing the population ratios. This means that every event in-game is a result of player actions.

The Graphs

Graphical representations of the balance, using written reports from this page as reference before hourly logs began.

Absolute Values

This shows the actual changes in standing numbers over time, the magnitude of keys events can be seen easily.

Ratio of Values

By using the percentage of each, one can see changes independent of the ever changing total active population and some effects which are more well hidden on the absolute values become obvious here.

The History

The Strike (12/2005)

The Ratio: 21/12/2005 71% to 29% (36,509 to 14,720)

Survivors outnumber Zombies. This ultimately harms the game for everyone, since unbalanced sides reduce the excitement and fun of the game.

Now infamous, a large number of players went On Strike in protest. The events of Stanstock caused the biggest change in the balance, both absolutely and relatively, in the history of the game.

Before Syringe AP Increase (2/2006)

The Ratio: 24/2/2006 64% to 36%

With the changes implemented after the strike, the balance takes a drastic turn towards equality and the survivor count nosedives. This is largly due to the strike itself in which a large number of survivors were willingly killed during the protest but also due to the changes in favour of the zombies. The balance had been improved to but a bias against zombies still existed.

After syringe AP increase (3/2006)

The Ratio: Late March, Rough Equality

In late March, syringes were changed to use 10 AP when reviving, up from 1 AP. This change reduced the use of syringes as combat weapons, as even characters with large amounts of syringes were restricted to five a day. Previously, syringes had been an AP-efficient way to kill zombies since they were a 1 AP use, 100% hit rate weapon.

The number of survivors drops significantly, although roughly half of those remaining are zombie hunters.

The Ratio: 11/4/2006 51% to 48% (20,682 to 19,821) with 2,224 revivifying bodies and 5,917 corpses. 28/4/2006 49% to 51% (18,955 to 19,546) with 2,503 revivifying bodies, 6,000 corpses and 9,085 zombie hunters. 13/5/2006 52% to 48% (19,230 to 17,570) with 2,526 revivifying bodies, 5,416 corpses and 9,646 zombie hunters.

After this, the short term effect of the changes is adapted to by survivors, and survivor numbers begin a steady increase. This is compounded by active zombie players also leaving in larger numbers. The ratio took a violent swing for the survivors as a result.

Redressing the Ratio (6/2006)

The Ratio: 58% to 42%

The slow survivor increase and the amount of zombies abandoning the game leaves the ratio in a sorry state and rocketing further out of whack. This is not left alone for long and new zombie skills are introduced. This doesn't seem to affect the amount of total characters, but the zombies make significant ground up on the unwary survivors and the ratio closes sharply, to rough equality.

The Ratio:1/7/2006 50% to 50% (17,904 to 17,312)

The impact is is sharp, short and permanent. From the equality, the numbers on each side are left to follow their own pattern with no sign of a quick bonuceback for survivor numbers as they adapt. However, now left to their own devices, numbers for the zombies take a turn for the worse and begin a steady decline, while survivor numbers remain even.

The Depression (12/2006)

The Ratio: 22/12/2006 56% to 44% (17,969 to 13,582) with 9,968 zombie hunters.

Months of steady survivor numbers but equally steady zombie decline have left the ratio out of whack. Zombies appear to be becoming disinterest, and zombie hunters now make up an additional 5% of the survivor population.

The Ratio:19/1/2007 63% to 37% (18,972 to 10,871) with 10,832 zombie hunters.

The Christmas/New Year period sees many zombie characters idle out, and a slight bump in survivor numbers. The ratio, fragile at this point, takes a bad hit. With zombie players becoming disinterested in playing things look bleak.

The Ratio:1/2/2007 62% to 38% (18,748 to 11,309) with 10,748 zombie hunters.

The effects of the holiday period seem to be slowing, but while the ratio is still significantly off, it does not remain so for long.

Redressing the Ratio, a lot (2/2007)

The Ratio: 20/2/2007 53% to 47% (16,878 to 14,555) with 9,208 zombie hunters.

A zombie buff sees the ratio radically redressed. Zombies see rapid and substantial swings in their favour. The growth of their numbers is strong. Survivors are assited by a rise in the total active characters, but this only serves to stem their fall a little.

The ratio:18/3/2007 42% to 58% (13,951 to 18,698) with 7,666 zombie hunters.

For the first time, the ratio is appreciably in zombie favour. The rate of growth in zombie characters remains as strong as ever, the survivor fall continued steadily, still lightly softened by new characters mainly flocking to their camp.

Numbers Swing (3/2007)

Offical logging begins on April 22. During the little-over-a-month period since the zombie advantageous ratio of March 18, the numbers have changed dramatically. The results on the graph are an interpolation between the two dates and the true sharpness of the change is not know. From a 16% zombie leads, things go badly.

The Ratio: 22/4/2007 51% to 49% (15,992 to 15,337)

The general cause of this rapid change is not known, if anybody has a good theory, they should make it known.

By the end of May, things had gotten bad for the zombies.

The Ratio: 31/5/2007 63% to 27% 20,056 to 11,615)

At this point, things peaked and trends began to reverse, the ratio started a move towards equality again. The true length or pervasiveness of this trend will never be known, because not long after it began...

Yahoomas (06/2007)

The game was featured in an article on Yahoo. Yahoo, needless to say, is popular. Numbers skyrocket for both sides.

The rewrite is currently up to here. Yahoomas needs finishing, and then everything else of course.

Zombie Upswing

September 1, 2007: 15,696 survivors (49%) to 16,306 zombies (51%). 8074 zombie hunters. Total active players: 38,845. August was a very bad month for Malton's survivor population; zombie numbers have steadily increased and the number of suburbs classed as highly dangerous has increased as well.

Zombie Downturn

September 18, 2007: 18,078 survivors (59%) to 12,108 zombies (41%). 9548 zombie hunters. Total active players: 36,449. After the zombie peak at the beginning of the month the tide has shifted swiftly. About 2400 characters have idled out since September 1, most of them apparently zombies. It's hard to say whether these idlers are career zombies or Mrh? Cows in the red suburbs waiting for revives that never came.

October "Rebound"

October 20, 2007: 16,576 survivors (57%) to 12,188 zombies (43%). 8892 zombie hunters. Total active players: 35,123. The zombie percentage continued to dip in late September and early October, falling to about the mid-30's. As October wore on, however, the trend reversed. However, zombie numbers have not increased significantly; instead it would appear that survivors are idling out, as the game has lost another 1326 players since the September 18 update on this page.

The Depression of January 2008

January 21, 2008: 18568 Standing survivors (66%) vs 9467 Standing Zombies (34%), with 9543 standing Zombie Hunters. Total active players: 33840. The situtation has become rather bleak for Zombies, as they are now outnumbered by survivors nearly 2 to 1.

The First Update of 2008

February 2, 2008: On January 23, Kevan introduced new mechanics designed to help the outnumbered zombies. Since then the zombie population (as well as the total number of active players) has risen at a slow but steady rate. The current stats: 16,995 standing Survivors (59%) vs 11,740 standing Zombies (41%). Total active players: 35,120. Standing Zombie Hunters: 8461.

February 9, 2008: There are now 16,151 (54%) standing Survivors vs 13,358 standing Zombies (46%). Standing Zombie Hunters: 7948. Total active characters: 36,385. It would appear that since the update, not only has the standing Zombie population risen, but so has the overall number of players.

February 19, 2008: The zombie population has increased even further, with a 50/50 split once more. Survivors stand at 15,181, while the undead have bounced back vigorously to 14,683. The total number has only slightly declined to 36,276.

February 23, 2008: The zombies now outnumber survivors for the first time in months. There are now 15,223 Standing Survivors (47%) vs 16,852 Standing Zombies (53%). The total number of players has also risen to 39,093.

February 26, 2008 - Contributing to these numbers is the zombie group, the dead of Dunell Hills. Originating on the Something Awful forums, at the time of this writing, this zombie group claims over 1200 members (and this number is apparently ever-rising!).

March 10, 2008 - Survivor numbers have spiraled even farther, just barely hovering over the 12,000 mark. This has been a boon time for zombies, with their numbers swelling to over 17,000 strong. This rise has been aided greatly by the dead of Dunell Hills, now simply known as The Dead, which boasts a membership of over 1,500 zombies, with a combined rating of over 10,000. With the percentages closing in on 40/60 in favor of the horde, the survivors are slowly being driven into smaller and smaller areas.

March 13, 2008 - The Zombie:Survivor ratio has reached 64:36 (18464/10684). Total players has dropped to 36369. The Dead continue their march south. The east remains the safest area for survivors, with three "green" suburbs. However, survivors have started to retake the middle of Malton. Ackland Mall in Havercroft was retaken. A suggestion to modify the new zombie blocking barricade policy did not pass and was moved to the Undecided category.

March 20, 2008 - The Zombie/Survivor ratio seems to have stabilized somewhat at 66%/34% (18515/9672) with 34778 total active players. However, while zombie numbers remained steady, survivor and total player numbers both dropped 9.4% and 4.3%, respectively, from last week. The Dead have 1488 members with a rating of 14623. There NE corner remains the last survivor "green" stronghold with zombies controlling bottom 2/3 of the map. However, there is a counterclockwise flow of both zombie hordes and survivors retaking land behind the hordes. Ackland mall fell again, but Caiger Mall was retaken.

March 24, 2008 - It's now Zombies 18629 (69%) to Survivors 8539 (31%) with 34103 active players. The ratio change is mainly due to falling number of survivors (-11.7%) as zombie numbers have only increase slightly. Zombies out number survivors by more that 2 to 1. There is also only one "green" suburb today (West Boundwood). The Dead's rating is now 15787.

March 27, 2008 - The ratio has dropped to Zombies 18106 (68%) : Survivors : 8867 (32%) with 34184 active players. Survivor numbers have risen for the first time in months. However, there are also no green suburbs left. Daily stats can be tracked on the March of the Dead page. The Dead's numbers have dropped to 1450 but their rating has risen to 16727.

Survivor Turnaround

March 29, 2008 - The survivor ratio has dramatically improved, with no apparent trigger or rule change. The current count is Zombies 17605 (65%) to Survivors 9732 (35%). Active player count is 34788. Still, there are no green areas on the map so it's unclear what is going on.

There was an article on UD in the Onion. Many attribute the small spike (and it is mostly level ones) to that. Also, many people are doing some hardcore revivin' right now; suicide revive runs and DIRT:NAPing are taking place all over Malton at the moment.

March 31, 2008 - The first green suburb of spring is here! :) Buttonville is once again green. The numbers are Active Characters : 35132, Standing Survivors : 10303 (37%), Standing Zombies : 16994 (63%).

April 4, 2008 - The counts are: Survivors : 11078 (39%), Zombies : 16629 (61%) with 35105 active players. Survivors had been as high as 41%. There are now 4 green suburbs on the bottom of the Mapton map.

April 12, 2008 - Counts are still stable at Survivors : 11002 (39%), Zombies : 16788 (61%), with 34277 active players. The bottom third of the map is non-red, with 7 green suburbs. The Dead's numbers are 1510 with a rating of 19598.

May 3, 2008 - Humans have made a comeback to a 50:50 ratio. Survivors : 13440 (50%), Zombies : 13274, with 33503 active players. Most malls have been retaken with the SE corner of Malton being mostly "safe." The Dead's numbers have dropped to 1280, but their average level is 15 and they have a rating of 19740.

May 5, 2008 - Humans are now up 53% (14093) to 47% (12278). Less than half of the map is red now. Noteworthy is that Ridleybank was green for a while (it's currently yellow) and that the Blackmore Building is occupied by survivors.

May 13 2008 - Humans now outnumber Zombies 60% to 40% (15972/10526) with 33455 active players. Also, only 16 of Malton's suburbs are red and 26 are green. The Dead's numbers have dropped to 1054 with an average level of 16 and a rating of 17482.

May 27 2008 - The number of humans rises further. Survivors now number 16690 out of 33253, placing the ratio at 63% to 37%. Every mall, except for Mitchem is curently in survivor hands.

Malton in Decline?

June 22 2008 - For the first time since Urban Dead was launched, the total number of active characters in Malton dipped below 30,000. While The Dead is still the highest ranked group in the game, their horde has gradually reduced to about 450 known members with a combined rating of approx. 9500. The survivor-zombie ratio is once again at 60% to 40% in favor of the former.

September 5, 2008 - After a brief zombie upswing in late summer the human ratio has returned to a fairly typical 61% with 14,537 standing survivors (of which 7916 are zombie hunters). The zombie ratio is 39% with 9184 standing. Total population is currently 29,196. The Dead have slipped to third place in the overall group standings with 180 active members. The Feral Undead are back in first place, with the Ridleybank Resistance Front in second.

October 11, 2008 - While the ratios have remained almost the same, 59:41 Survivors:Zombies, the total numbers have dropped again to 13221:8921 with a total of 26962. The top group rankings are The Feral Undead with 191 members, The Ridleybank Resistance Front with 163, and The Dead with 137.

November 10, 2008 - Total players continue to dwindle: 26829. New Zed-buffing rules have once again pushed the Zombie ratio up to 54%/46%. Survivors: 10042 Zombies: 11527. Most malls have fallen except those in the SW quadrant. Top groups: The Ridleybank Resistance Front with 186, The Feral Undead with 177, and The Dead with 133. The top four groups are all Zombie groups and the top Survivor group has less than 100 people. Multiple long-standing groups have begun to decline in leadership, while new groups continue to spring up with alarming regularity upon the statistics page, then quickly fall off again.

November 17, 2008 - Total player count has increased by about 600 with a total of 27483 players. The number of zombies has increased to about 12271 (57%) while survivor numbers dropped to 9611 (43%). However, about 58% of the remaining survivors are zombie hunters. The top 4 groups remains the same except that the number of known members has decreased.

December 2, 2008 - Active Characters : 27099, Standing Survivors : 8380 (39%), Standing Zombies : 13001 (61%). There are only two green squares on the entire Malton map.

December 4, 2008 - There are no green zones left on the Malton map. Active Characters : 25990, Standing Survivors : 8130 (38%), Standing Zombies : 12764 (62%).

• 041208.PNG

  2008, December 4

Another search rate boost

December 9, 2008 - After search rates were quietly increased survivor numbers have been rebounding rapidly. Current stats have active characters at 26,925, with 9313 (44%) survivors and 11,785 (56%) zombies.

December 10, 2008 - Just to demonstrate the power search rates have over game stats, in one day the numbers have changed thusly: 27,280 active characters, 10,054 (46%) survivors, and 11,411 (54%) zombies.

December 14, 2008 - The turnaround continues. Out of 26,186 active characters we have 11,431 (54%) survivors and 9531 (46%) zombies. Several green suburbs have appeared on the Malton map.

December 21, 2008 - Malton stands at 26,447 total active characters: 12,778 (60%) survivors and 8500 (40%) zombies. This complete turnaround back to the "normal" ratio took less than three weeks.

January 5, 2008 - Relatively little change since the last update. Total active characters have slipped to 24,824. Of that we have 12,360 (61%) survivors and 7744 (39%) zombies.

January 11, 2008 - The zombie percentage continues to slip. Of 25,629 active characters 13,049 (63%) are survivors and 7590 (37%) are zombies. There are numerous green suburbs, mostly concentrated in the south of the city.

External Links

• Game Statistics
• Game Statistics Log
• Game Statistics Tracker, includes trend analysis, is not up to date
• Game Statistics Graphs