Survivor-Zombie Imbalance

Three theories

There are a three popular theories concerning the best ratio of survivors to zombies.

Equal numbers of Zombies and Survivors

Rarely stated explicitly, but rather implied by the word "balance", this viewpoint holds that Malton's population should be split 50:50 between living and unliving. This would mean that members of both sides could easily find opponents. Often, people think that if one side numbers fewer than 50%, then it must have an inherent weakness, and so needs to be made more powerful. The way that the Survivor-Zombie ratio seems to swing independently of games updates would cast doubt on this.

Zombies Heavily Outnumber Survivors

Considered to be particularly in-genre, here humans desperately try to survive against vastly larger numbers of zombies. The risk (or is that the opportunity?) here is that the zombies may wipe out the last of the survivors, and without survivors to play with or against, the game is over.

Let it be (Laissez-faire)

This view says it's best if neither search/barricade odds are adjusted, or suggestions implemented for the purpose of changing the population ratios. This means that every event in-game is a result of player actions.

Before syringe AP increase

On December 21, 2005, survivors outnumbered zombies at a ratio of 71% to 29% (36,509 survivors to 14,720 zombies). This ultimately harms the game for everyone, since unbalanced sides reduce the excitement and fun of the game.

With the changes implemented after a large number of players went On Strike, the balance has been improved to 64% survivors compared to 36% zombies (February 24, 2006), however this still represents a drastic bias against zombies.

A number of reasons have been suggested for this.

The game is supposedly slanted in favor of survivor players. This makes zombie play frustrating, driving players away from playing zombies.

Barricades make organized survivors very safe, and give lone zombies a hard time finding food.
Zombie Hunter players using Headshot can drain the AP of zombies caught in the open, making it more difficult to level up as a zombie than it is as a survivor.

New players may tend towards survivors, since survivors are generally the protaganists or heroes of the zombie genre.
Breadth and depth: There are more options in terms of gameplay and character development for survivors.

Ideas for balancing the game should be brought to the Suggestions page.

After syringe AP increase

In late March, syringes were changed to use 10 AP when reviving, up from 1 AP. This change reduced the use of syringes as combat weapons, as even characters with large amounts of syringes were restricted to five a day. As a result, zombies and survivors are now of almost equal numbers.

However, while the number of survivors has dropped significantly, more than half of the remaining ones (as of May 13th) are zombie hunters.

April 11th: 20,682 Survivors (51%) to 19821 Zombies (49%) with 2,224 revivifying bodies and 5,917 corpses.
April 28th: 18,955 Survivors (49%) to 19546 Zombies (51%) with 2,503 revivifying bodies, 6,000 corpses, 9,085 (48%) zombie hunters.
May 13th: 19,230 Survivors (52%) to 17,570 Zombies (48%) with 2,526 revivifying bodies, 5,416 corpses, 9,646 (50%) zombie hunters.

New Imbalance Appears And Disappears

After having roughly even numbers for a while, the survivor - zombie difference blew out again recently. As of 7th June 2006, only 42% of active players are zombies. The main reason seems to be a higher number of zombie players quitting, while survivor numbers have stayed relatively consistent. Indeed the total number of zombies has returned to the 14k mark, which is what it was when the survivor - zombie imbalance first gained attention. This suggests that changes in the game caused a temporary surge to zombie numbers, but these changes were not sufficient to keep players as zombies. Another factor is the increased search rate from powered generators, which has made it significantly easier to obtain syringes and other items.

With the introduction of more new zombie skills, such as the ability to drag dying survivors onto the street, the balance seems to have settled and the game is once more relatively even.

As of July 1st 2006, the ratio is:

Standing Survivors : 17904 (50%)
Standing Zombies : 17312 (50%)

One year later

Dec 22nd 2006 : 17,969 survivors (56%) to 13,582 Zombies (44%), 9,968 (55%) zombie hunters.

We see that the number of zombies has dropped by about 4,000 in the last six months, while the survivors remain mostly untouched. The number of zombie hunters has increased; there are now more survivors with head shot than without. Significant changes in recent days are limited to the strengthening of forts, which is likely to worsen the trend even further.

Jan 19 2007 : 18,972 survivors (63%) to 10,871 Zombies (37%), 10,832 (57%) zombie hunters.

Total Active Players (within last 5 days): 36,008

The game balance continues to swing further in favor of survivors. While the zombie numbers have declined by nearly 3,000, those of survivors have increased by only about 1,000. This seems to suggest that zombie players are losing interest in the game and idling out, although nothing conclusive can be drawn from the figures.

Jan 31 / Feb 1, 2007: 18,748 survivors (62%) to 11,309 zombies (38%), w/ 10,748 (55%) zombie hunters.

Total Active Players: 36,089

The balance seems to have achieved equilibrium, with numbers and percentages closely matching the statistics from a week or so ago. There's been a very slight shift in favor of zombies, but it is not known if this is due to new zombie characters or simply a case of more humans standing at revive points.

A New Balance?

Feb 20, 2007: 16,878 survivors (53%) to 14,555 zombies (47%), w/ 9,208 (55%) zombie hunters.

Total Active Players: 37,820

The total is up by about 1,000 players. Survivor numbers are only down by 2,000 since the last count, but zombies have increased by 3,000. Is a balance returning to survivor-zombie numbers? Only time will tell.

Swinging Back to Zombies

March 18, 2007: 13,951 survivors (42%) to 18,698 zombies (58%), w/ 7,666 (55%) zombie hunters.

Total Active Players: 40,183

Urban Dead has gained 3,000 active players in one month. The respective changes in numbers for both groups are roughly (-3000) and (+4000) for both groups.

Returning to "normal"

The temporary upswing from March is gone, the numbers have relapsed to early February values. Compared to Feb. 20, 1000 more zombies have turned into survivors, and a similar number of survivors have become zombie hunters.

May 5, 2007: 17,956 survivors (56%) to 13,650 zombies (44%) with 9,955 zombie hunters (55% of survivors, 0.73 hunters per zombie). Total active players: 38,419

May 29, 2007: 20,067 survivors (63%) to 11,375 zombies (37%). 10,839 zombie hunters. This is out of 38,516 active players. For zombies, the trend has been continuously downward throughout the month of May.

After Yahoomas

July 2, 2007: 19,732 survivors (56%) to 14,923 zombies (44%). 9367 zombie hunters. Total active players: 41,977. The trend for zombies in June was more or less continuously upward. Yahoomas seems to have largely benefited the undead, and the damage caused by the massive LUE horde has helped as well.

July 21, 2007: 18,426 survivors (57%) to 13,435 zombies (43%). 8802 zombie hunters. Total active players: 38,618. Percentages have remained stable in July, but the overall number of players has fallen back to pre-6/18 levels. Interesting, however, is the steady decline in zombie hunters since June. Clearly veteran survivors are either retiring or remaining zombies.

Zombie Upswing

September 1, 2007: 15,696 survivors (49%) to 16,306 zombies (51%). 8074 zombie hunters. Total active players: 38,845. August was a very bad month for Malton's survivor population; zombie numbers have steadily increased and the number of suburbs classed as highly dangerous has increased as well.

Zombie Downturn

September 18, 2007: 18,078 survivors (59%) to 12,108 zombies (41%). 9548 zombie hunters. Total active players: 36,449. After the zombie peak at the beginning of the month the tide has shifted swiftly. About 2400 characters have idled out since September 1, most of them apparently zombies. It's hard to say whether these idlers are career zombies or Mrh? Cows in the red suburbs waiting for revives that never came.

October "Rebound"

October 20, 2007: 16,576 survivors (57%) to 12,188 zombies (43%). 8892 zombie hunters. Total active players: 35,123. The zombie percentage continued to dip in late September and early October, falling to about the mid-30's. As October wore on, however, the trend reversed. However, zombie numbers have not increased significantly; instead it would appear that survivors are idling out, as the game has lost another 1326 players since the September 18 update on this page.

The Depression of January 2008

January 21, 2008: 18568 Standing survivors (66%) vs 9467 Standing Zombies (34%), with 9543 standing Zombie Hunters. Total active players: 33840. The situtation has become rather bleak for Zombies, as they are now outnumbered by survivors nearly 2 to 1.

The First Update of 2008

February 2, 2008: On January 23, Kevan introduced new mechanics designed to help the outnumbered zombies. Since then the zombie population (as well as the total number of active players) has risen at a slow but steady rate. The current stats: 16,995 standing Survivors (59%) vs 11,740 standing Zombies (41%). Total active players: 35,120. Standing Zombie Hunters: 8461.

February 9, 2008: There are now 16,151 (54%) standing Survivors vs 13,358 standing Zombies (46%). Standing Zombie Hunters: 7948. Total active characters: 36,385. It would appear that since the update, not only has the standing Zombie population risen, but so has the overall number of players.

February 19, 2008: The zombie population has increased even further, with a 50/50 split once more. Survivors stand at 15,181, while the undead have bounced back vigorously to 14,683. The total number has only slightly declined to 36,276.

February 23, 2008: The zombies now outnumber survivors for the first time in months. There are now 15,223 Standing Survivors (47%) vs 16,852 Standing Zombies (53%). The total number of players has also risen to 39,093.

February 26, 2008 - Contributing to these numbers is the zombie group, the dead of Dunell Hills. Originating on the Something Awful forums, at the time of this writing, this zombie group claims over 1200 members (and this number is apparently ever-rising!).

March 10, 2008 - Survivor numbers have spiraled even farther, just barely hovering over the 12,000 mark. This has been a boon time for zombies, with their numbers swelling to over 17,000 strong. This rise has been aided greatly by the dead of Dunell Hills, now simply known as The Dead, which boasts a membership of over 1,500 zombies, with a combined rating of over 10,000. With the percentages closing in on 40/60 in favor of the horde, the survivors are slowly being driven into smaller and smaller areas.

March 13, 2008 - The Zombie:Survivor ratio has reached 64:36 (18464/10684). Total players has dropped to 36369. The Dead continue their march south. The east remains the safest area for survivors, with three "green" suburbs. However, survivors have started to retake the middle of Malton. Ackland Mall in Havercroft was retaken. A suggestion to modify the new zombie blocking barricade policy did not pass and was moved to the Undecided category.

March 20, 2008 - The Zombie/Survivor ratio seems to have stabilized somewhat at 66%/34% (18515/9672) with 34778 total active players. However, while zombie numbers remained steady, survivor and total player numbers both dropped 9.4% and 4.3%, respectively, from last week. The Dead have 1488 members with a rating of 14623. There NE corner remains the last survivor "green" stronghold with zombies controlling bottom 2/3 of the map. However, there is a counterclockwise flow of both zombie hordes and survivors retaking land behind the hordes. Ackland mall fell again, but Caiger Mall was retaken.

March 24, 2008 - It's now Zombies 18629 (69%) to Survivors 8539 (31%) with 34103 active players. The ratio change is mainly due to falling number of survivors (-11.7%) as zombie numbers have only increase slightly. Zombies out number survivors by more that 2 to 1. There is also only one "green" suburb today (West Boundwood). The Dead's rating is now 15787.

March 27, 2008 - The ratio has dropped to Zombies 18106 (68%) : Survivors : 8867 (32%) with 34184 active players. Survivor numbers have risen for the first time in months. However, there are also no green suburbs left. Daily stats can be tracked on the March of the Dead page. The Dead's numbers have dropped to 1450 but their rating has risen to 16727.

Survivor Turnaround

March 29, 2008 - The survivor ratio has dramatically improved, with no apparent trigger or rule change. The current count is Zombies 17605 (65%) to Survivors 9732 (35%). Active player count is 34788. Still, there are no green areas on the map so it's unclear what is going on.

There was an article on UD in the Onion. Many attribute the small spike (and it is mostly level ones) to that. Also, many people are doing some hardcore revivin' right now; suicide revive runs and DIRT:NAPing are taking place all over Malton at the moment.

March 31, 2008 - The first green suburb of spring is here! :) Buttonville is once again green. The numbers are Active Characters : 35132, Standing Survivors : 10303 (37%), Standing Zombies : 16994 (63%).

April 4, 2008 - The counts are: Survivors : 11078 (39%), Zombies : 16629 (61%) with 35105 active players. Survivors had been as high as 41%. There are now 4 green suburbs on the bottom of the Mapton map.

April 12, 2008 - Counts are still stable at Survivors : 11002 (39%), Zombies : 16788 (61%), with 34277 active players. The bottom third of the map is non-red, with 7 green suburbs. The Dead's numbers are 1510 with a rating of 19598.

May 3, 2008 - Humans have made a comeback to a 50:50 ratio. Survivors : 13440 (50%), Zombies : 13274, with 33503 active players. Most malls have been retaken with the SE corner of Malton being mostly "safe." The Dead's numbers have dropped to 1280, but their average level is 15 and they have a rating of 19740.

May 5, 2008 - Humans are now up 53% (14093) to 47% (12278). Less than half of the map is red now. Noteworthy is that Ridleybank was green for a while (it's currently yellow) and that the Blackmore Building is occupied by survivors.

May 13 2008 - Humans now outnumber Zombies 60% to 40% (15972/10526) with 33455 active players. Also, only 16 of Malton's suburbs are red and 26 are green. The Dead's numbers have dropped to 1054 with an average level of 16 and a rating of 17482.

May 27 2008 - The number of humans rises further. Survivors now number 16690 out of 33253, placing the ratio at 63% to 37%. Every mall, except for Mitchem is curently in survivor hands.

Malton in Decline?

June 22 2008 - For the first time since Urban Dead was launched, the total number of active characters in Malton dipped below 30,000. While The Dead is still the highest ranked group in the game, their horde has gradually reduced to about 450 known members with a combined rating of approx. 9500. The survivor-zombie ratio is once again at 60% to 40% in favor of the former.

September 5, 2008 - After a brief zombie upswing in late summer the human ratio has returned to a fairly typical 61% with 14,537 standing survivors (of which 7916 are zombie hunters). The zombie ratio is 39% with 9184 standing. Total population is currently 29,196. The Dead have slipped to third place in the overall group standings with 180 active members. The Feral Undead are back in first place, with the Ridleybank Resistance Front in second.

October 11, 2008 - While the ratios have remained almost the same, 59:41 Survivors:Zombies, the total numbers have dropped again to 13221:8921 with a total of 26962. The top group rankings are The Feral Undead with 191 members, The Ridleybank Resistance Front with 163, and The Dead with 137.

November 10, 2008 - Total players continue to dwindle: 26829. New Zed-buffing rules have once again pushed the Zombie ratio up to 54%/46%. Survivors: 10042 Zombies: 11527. Most malls have fallen except those in the SW quadrant. Top groups: The Ridleybank Resistance Front with 186, The Feral Undead with 177, and The Dead with 133. The top four groups are all Zombie groups and the top Survivor group has less than 100 people. Multiple long-standing groups have begun to decline in leadership, while new groups continue to spring up with alarming regularity upon the statistics page, then quickly fall off again.

November 17, 2008 - Total player count has increased by about 600 with a total of 27483 players. The number of zombies has increased to about 12271 (57%) while survivor numbers dropped to 9611 (43%). However, about 58% of the remaining survivors are zombie hunters. The top 4 groups remains the same except that the number of known members has decreased.

December 2, 2008 - Active Characters : 27099, Standing Survivors : 8380 (39%), Standing Zombies : 13001 (61%). There are only two green squares on the entire Malton map.

December 4, 2008 - There are no green zones left on the Malton map. Active Characters : 25990, Standing Survivors : 8130 (38%), Standing Zombies : 12764 (62%).

External Links

Game Statistics
Game Statistics Log
Game Statistics Tracker, includes trend analysis, is not up to date
Game Statistics Graphs