Search Odds

This is all about Malton search odds. Don't add Monroeville data please. Pages for monroeville might be set up later

The purpose of these pages is for players to report their success rate in searching. From this we can calculate what the success rates are for different building types. For this to be an unbiased sampling, if you commit to contributing information, you should record it and contribute it every time you search in a particular building type.

The project now has archived some data for every building type, but we want to stay accurate as changes are implemented.

Addition of each item (most recent - toolbox), implementation of powering/ransacking-ruining buildins change the rates, so the data income to calculate precise values is needed all the time.

Drug Store Search Odds reduction

Information on search odds in drug stores are now obsolete. Announced 14 October 2008, but implemented some time before that, search odds for FAK in mall drug stores were reduced. "Mall drug stores are beginning to run low on useful pharmaceutical supplies."

Some initial informal reports are indicating FAK finding odds in drug stores are significantly lower than hospitals even with bargain hunting.

Please report in with new data.

A Call for Help!

As of 14th August 2007, ruin was added as a harsh version of ransack.

• Ruin possibly adds larger negative bonus than ransack
• Addition of the toolbox as an item found in Auto Repair, Factory, etc. presumably reduces the chances of finding the other items in that location

As of 29th April 2006, changes to the Game's structure were implemented. Those changes were:

• Powered Generators add a positive bonus to Search rates
• Zombies using the skill Ransack add a negative bonus to Search rates

In order to ascertain the exact effects of these changes, we appreciate all new data with specifying condition.

Summary

The probability to find something is fixed and depends from location's state as listed below. Thus, addition of another findable item to location evenly decreases probabilities to find other items.

• The normal search success rate appears to be 1 in 5 (20%).
• The normal search success rate in Malls with Bargain Hunting is about 1 in 3 (33.33%).
• The search success rate in powered location appears to be 1 in 4 (25%).
• The search success rate in powered Malls with Bargain Hunting appears to be 1 in 2 (50%).
• The search success rate in ruined location appears to be 1 in 10 (10%).
• The search success rate outside appears to be 1 in 20 (5%).

Analysis

Note: this section might not be up-to-date

• With only Shopping, the mall is the best place to search for both:
  • Guns and ammo (better than the Police Department which is diluted by flare guns and flak jackets)
  • First-aid kits (better than the Hospital diluted by newspapers).
• With Bargain Hunting, the searching the mall becomes at least twice as effective as PDs and Hospitals.
  • The Mall Drug Store yields First-aid kits on 1 in 3 (33%). (48 AP yields about 16 First-aid kits.)
  • The Mall Gun Store yields items on 1 in 3: Pistol Clips on 1 in 9, Shotgun Shells on 1 in 9, Pistols (partially loaded) on 1 in 18, and Shotguns (partially loaded) on 1 in 18. (40 AP = 36 Searches & 4 Reloads yields about 15 pistol rounds and 3 shotgun blasts. This is approximately enough ammo to kill 1 healthy flak-jacketed Zombie using a 65% to-hit rate.)
• It is not yet clear whether or not the Armory has higher gun/ammo success rates than a PD, but they are almost definitely still lower than the mall's.
• More pistol shots are found per search than shotgun shots. The current estimate is that individual pistol rounds are a little under six times more likely to be found than shotgun rounds. Regardless, it is clear that a character using only the pistol will gain more XP/AP than someone using only the shotgun.
• The flak jacket is the hardest item to find. Books (in Libraries), baseball bats (in Mall Sporting Goods), and first-aid kits (in Mall Drugstores) are the easiest items to find.
• The best places to search for spray cans are Schools and Auto Repair Shops. Auto Repair Shops also most effectively yield fuel cans, which have become important to power generators since Apr. 29th, 2006.
• The following building types are currently believed to be empty of any items: Bank, Building, Cinema, Mansion, Railway Station, Tower, Zoo.

Percent Summaries

These are the aggregate results of select portions of the data found thus far.

• % Search indicates the percentage chance of said category per search.
• % Found indicates the percentage chance of said category assuming you have found something.
• AP represents an estimate of the average AP required to find this item once.

To see a compilation organized by both location and item, see Item/Location_Table (note that it is old and contains pre-gen data)

Hospital

Hospital
Number of searches in column headers
Item	Lit (5622)		Normal (3589)	Ruin (45)	% Found (overall)
% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP
First-Aid Kit	18.9% ± 0.5%	5.3	14.9% ± 0.6%	7	15,6% ± 5,4%		73,9%
Newspaper	6.2% ± 0.3%	16	6.0% ± 0.4%	17	2,2% ± 2,2%		26,1%
Nothing	74.9% ± 0.6%		79.1% ± 0.7%		82,2% ± 5,7%

Updated: ~~~~ [talk] 14:22, 19 February 2008 (UTC)

Police Department

Police Department
Lit/Normal/Ransacked 850/339/0 searches
Item	Lit		Normal	Ransack	% Found
% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP
Pistol	2.3% ± 0.5%	44	1.8% ± 0.7%	56	(no data)		8.4%
Clip	8.4% ± 1.0%	12	5.3% ± 1.2%	19	(no data)		30.1%
Shotgun	1.2% ± 0.4%	83	1.8% ± 0.7%	56	(no data)		5.4%
Shell	8.5% ± 1.0%	12	7.7% ± 1.5%	13	(no data)		33.1%
Flare Gun	2.5% ± 0.5%	40	1.5% ± 0.7%	67	(no data)		8.8%
Flak Jacket	2.0% ± 0.5%	50	2.1% ± 0.8%	48	(no data)		8.1%
Radio	1.9% ± 0.5%	53	0.9% ± 0.5%	111	(no data)		6.4%
Nothing	73.5% ± 1.5%		79.1% ± 2.2%		(no data)

*pre-gen data not taken as addition of Radio item shifts other numbers

Updated: ~~~~ [talk] 11:14, 21 September 2007 (BST)

NecroTech Building

NecroTech Building
Lit/Unlit/Ransacked 825 / 128 / 199 searches
Item	Lit		Normal	Ruin	% Found
% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP
Rev. Syringe	17.5% ± 2.7%	8	12.5% ± 2.9%	8	4.5% ± 1.5%	22	44,84%
DNA Extractor	7.1% ± 1.9%	11	4.7% ± 1.9%	21	3.0% ± 1.2%	33	31.32%
GPS Unit	4.0% ± 1.4%	15	3.9% ± 1.7%	26	2.5% ± 1.1%	40	23.84%
Nothing	71.5% ± 3.3%		78.9% ± 3.6%		89.9% ± 2.1%

*Data used for unlit is pre-gen only (due to lack of later data) and is shifted due to books

• Syringe percentages include syringe-only data from the DEM, prior to April 29th, after a silent increase in syringe find rates (1026AP, 127 syringes).

Updated: Dazaras 05:20, 18 May 2008 (BST)

Fire Department

Fire Department
Lit/Normal/Ransacked 169/150/14 searches
Item	Lit		Normal	Ransack	% Found
% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP
Fire Axe	6.5% ± 1.9%		6.7% ± 2.0%		14.3% ± 9.4%		29.5%
Wirecutters	8.3% ± 2.1%		8.7% ± 2.3%		7.1% ± 6.9%		35.9%
Flare Gun	4.1% ± 1.5%		3.3% ± 1.5%		7.1% ± 6.9%		16.7%
Radio	4.1% ± 1.5%		4.7% ± 1.7%		(no data)		17.9%
Nothing	76.9% ± 3.2%		76.7% ± 3.5%		71.4% ± 12%

* Very VERY low amount of data, thus AP even not calculated

Updated: ~~~~ [talk] 18:00, 23 September 2007 (BST)

12 searches on ruined fire department before finding anything. (1 axe)

Drug Store

Drug store
Bargain Hunting (Y/N) + Lit/Normal/Ransacked Number of searches in column headers*
Item	Bargain Hunting	No Bargain Hunting
Lit (476)		Normal (1314)	Ransack (0)	Lit (687)		Normal (409)	Ransack (0)
% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP
First-Aid Kit	53.8% ± 2.3%	2	34.6% ± 1.3%	3	(no data)		28.5% ± 1.7%	4	20.0% ± 2.0%	5	(no data)
Nothing	46.2% ± 2.3%		65.4% ± 1.3%		(no data)		46.2% ± 2.3%		80.0% ± 2.0%		(no data)

* Data used for normal buildings - only pre-gen.

Updated: ~~~~ [talk] 12:51, 1 January 2008 (UTC)

Gun Store

Gun Store
Bargain Hunting (Y/N) + Lit/Normal/Ransacked; Number of searches in column headers*
Item	Bargain Hunting	No Bargain Hunting
Lit (527)		Normal (2233)	Ransack (0)	Lit (30)		Normal (600)	Ransack (0)
% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP	% Search	AP
Pistol	8.5% ± 1.2%	12	5.6% ± 0.5%	18	(no data)		3.3% ± 3.3%		4.0% ± 0.8%	25	(no data)
Clip	16.9% ± 1.6%	6	11.2% ± 0.7%	9	(no data)		10.0% ± 5.5%		8.3% ± 1.1%	12	(no data)
Shotgun	9.7% ± 1.3%	10	5.6% ± 0.5%	18	(no data)		3.3% ± 3.3%		3.2% ± 0.7%	31	(no data)
Shell	16.9% ± 1.6%	6	10.9% ± 0.7%	9	(no data)		3.3% ± 3.3%		6.5% ± 1.0%	15	(no data)
Nothing	48.0% ± 2.2%		66.7% ± 1.0%		(no data)		80.0% ± 7.3%		78.0% ± 1.7%		(no data)

* Data used for normal buildings - only pre-gen.

Update: ~~~~ [talk] 13:20, 1 January 2008 (UTC)

Tips for Contributing

• Due to the high failure rate in searching, the most efficient way to record searching data is to count nothings (using your fingers if the lag is significant) until you come up with an item, and then record the results. This way you only need to lift your pen (or switch to Notepad) a few times during a big search run, instead of 50.
• Another useful way of recording is to note the type of the last item in your inventory before you search, then perform your designated number of searches (however many you intend to invest). Once you've finished your search spree, start from the item after the item you recorded previously then record the number of each item. Once you've done this, it is a simple matter of arithmetic to back-calculate the number of unsuccessful searches from your other totals. There are problems with this method however.
  • There is the possibility of being granted a new AP during your search. If you use this method, either count your clicks, or run through them very quickly.
  • You need to be sure you're not discarding any items that may come up in your settings
  • You might ran out of encumbrance and further items will be discarded
• If you want to contribute to the less popular search pages, but don't want to spend your main character's AP searching in "useless" locations, consider making an alt or two exclusively for searching instead. (Be sure to prevent your characters from interacting with each other, or even coming closer than 15 blocks to each other, as a zerg flag would be triggerred that decreases search odds). Consider making this page your alt's profile's home page, and possibly putting the word "search" in your alt's name.
  • Relevant skills for a "search alt" include Free Running, to access buildings, and Shopping/Bargain Hunting (but keep in mind, we're trying to collect data on mall searches both with and without those skills.) Good starting classes, therefore, are Consumer and Scout.
  • If you have the knowledge and are willing, please consider writing a Greasemonkey script that can calculate and analyze search values.

Raw Data

This section is for posting raw data for those among us who can't or won't add it to the tables. Please delete these after adding the data to the tables.