Survivor-Zombie Imbalance: Difference between revisions

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{{Underconstruction}}
{{Underconstruction}}


=The Theories=
{| align="center"
There are popular theories concerning the best ratio of survivors to zombies.
|-
|style="text-align:center" | '''Contents'''
|-
|style="text-align:left" | [[Survivor-Zombie Imbalance#Interpreting the Graph|Interpreting the Graph]] • [[Survivor-Zombie Imbalance#Factors Influencing the Ratio|Factors Influencing the Ratio]] • [[Survivor-Zombie Imbalance#The Future and Conclusions|The Future and Conclusions]] • [[Survivor-Zombie Imbalance#Gallery|Gallery and Further Reading]]
|}
__NOTOC__


==Equal numbers of Zombies and Survivors==
<center>
Rarely stated explicitly, implied by the word "balance", this viewpoint holds that Malton's population should be split 50:50 between living and unliving. Meaning that members of both sides could easily find opponents.
<div style="height: auto; width:800px; border: thin solid black; overflow:scroll">
Often, people think that if one side numbers fewer than 50%, then it must have an inherent weakness, and so needs to be made more powerful. [[News|Game updates]] are often implemented to correct an uneven balance, but generally seem to only have a short term effect.
[[File:SZI Graph.png]]
</div>
</center>
{{SZI Graph Legend|caption='''Survivor (<font color="#4491C4">blue</font>) and zombie (<font color="#5BBA5C">green</font>) populations from October 2005 to December 2013.''' Dips and peaks correspond to notable player [[:Category:Events|events]] (names) and [[News|game updates]] (numbers). Scroll horizontally to view full graph.}}


==Zombies Heavily Outnumber Survivors==
Considered to be particularly in-genre, here humans desperately try to survive against vastly larger numbers of zombies.
The risk (or is that the opportunity?) here is that the zombies may wipe out the last of the survivors, and without survivors to play with or against, the game is over.


==Let it be (Laissez-faire)==
==Interpreting the Graph==
This view says it's best if neither search/barricade odds are adjusted, or suggestions implemented for the purpose of changing the population ratios. Zombies are simply better than survivors as far as long-term combat and staying power goes, yet survivors almost always have the numbers advantage. This means that advantages given to zombies would increase the power of an already superior class, while advantages given to survivors only solidifies their strength in numbers. Leaving things as-is means that every event in-game is a result of player actions.
The graph shows that significant player events and game updates correspond to peaks and dips in the survivor and zombie populations. It is assumed that the ratio will not change without the effects of game updates and player events. When these occur, the ratio changes if not reversing to favour the other side. After that, and as the norm, the ratio tends to favour survivors. As game updates and events become less prevalent, the ratio settles. Since August 2011, the ratio has refused switch, and rests unfettered at 2:1 in favour of survivors. Ideally, players prefer one of three of the following ideal ratios.


=The Graphs=
*'''Equal numbers of zombies and survivors'''. Rarely stated explicitly, implied by the word "balance", this viewpoint holds that [[Malton]]'s population should be split 50:50 between living and unliving. Members of both sides could easily find opponents. Often, people think that if one side numbers fewer than 50%, then it must have an inherent weakness, and so needs to be made more powerful. Game updates are often implemented to correct an uneven balance, but generally seem to only have a short term effect.
Graphical representations of the balance, using saved stats pages from the Wayback Machine as reference before hourly logs began.
*'''Zombies heavily outnumber survivors'''. Considered to be particularly in-genre, here humans desperately try to survive against vastly larger numbers of zombies. The risk (or is that the opportunity?) here is that the zombies may wipe out the last of the survivors, and without survivors to play with or against, the game is over.
*'''Let it be (Laissez-faire)'''. This view says it's best that search and barricade rates are not adjusted, and that game mechanics are not changed to alter the ratio. Zombies are simply better than survivors as far as long-term combat and staying power goes, yet survivors almost always have the numbers advantage. This means that advantages given to zombies would increase the power of an already superior class, while advantages given to survivors only solidifies their strength in numbers. Leaving things as-is means that every event in-game is a result of player actions.


==Absolute Values==
The ratio refuses to rest at a 50:50 split. Equal numbers usually only happens when the ratio switches. The longest interval at that ratio is only a month long—from November to December 2010. When zombies heavily outnumber survivors, the effect is short-lived and hinges on game updates or events (e.g. [[the Dead]] and events [[News/2005|2]], [[News/2005|3]], [[News/2008#January 23|15]]). For the past few years, the game has been left to its own devices. Without updates or large events, survivors are given the numbers advantage.
This shows the actual changes in standing numbers over time, the magnitude of keys events can be seen easily.


[[Image:UD-SZI-Absolute-Graph.png|800px|Comparison of the Numbers of Active Survivors v Active Zombies]]
Why is the ratio so?


==Relative Values==
===Factors Influencing the Ratio===
By using the percentage of each, one can see changes independent of the ever changing total active population and some effects which are more well hidden on the absolute values become obvious here.
People will play the side they want to play. There is little to stop a player from playing the game as a survivor or zombie; it just matters what the player finds fun. This being so, players choose a side for many reasons. '''THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO ADD INPUT. THIS SHOULD BE AS FACTUAL AS POSSIBLE.'''
*'''Game mechanics'''. This includes many things, for instance:
**Differences exist in AP required to perform complementary actions between survivors and zombies. It takes more AP to remove barricades than to build them, as is often cited. Zombie melee is more AP efficient than survivor melee ([[Guides:Damage Per Action|further details]]).
**Perceptions of game balance affect interest (i.e. a player may view their side as being underpowered).
**Survivors play differently than zombies. Survivor gameplay is more complex; they have a greater diversity of actions. Many survivor actions have no complement on the zombie side of things. For instance, survivors can search, speak better and use radios, and have more ways to kill. Zombie gameplay revolves around breaking barricades and killing survivors, mostly using the same button—the claw.
**It is takes less for zombies to get back into play than for survivors. Apart from [[Combat Revives]], killing a zombie does not cause it to "switch sides" and become a survivor; only AP is required for the zombie to play as a zombie again. Upon death, survivors must rely on other players in order to play as a survivor again. The point? When times are tough for survivors, a few things happen. Survivors stay as zombies longer, since many revivers are dead themselves and those who live may be AP-strapped. At this point AP is idle while these survivor "[[Mrh Cows|Mrh? Cows]]" sway at [[revive points]]. Thus zombie numbers are "artificially" larger (meaning fewer zombies are hunting survivors than would otherwise be thought); and survivor are less able to recuperate their numbers when they need the revives the most. (The net affect of this, or how much ratio is pulled toward zombies and how much to survivors, is debatable.)
*'''Game updates'''. Changes made by Kevan correlate with changes in the ratio, sometimes ending up with zombies favoured, but at other times, survivors are. Usually this is short-lived, but it might be interpreted that the ratio was permanently brought closer together after updates [[News/2005|1]] through [[News/2006#March 28|5]] were added.
*'''Player events'''. Outside groups inject many players into the game, who many prefer to play as one side over another. [[Yahoomas]] and [[the Dead]] are examples.
*'''Survivors are the good guys'''. Or, similarly, people often play zombie apocalypse games to fight zombies and survive.
*'''Survivors have a significant sub-set, PKers; zombies don't'''. A notable portion of the survivor population are [[PKers]]. Conversely, [[ZKer]]s aren't so popular. (How significant?)
*'''Severely unbalanced ratios are self-correcting'''. Syringe search rates become higher with fewer survivors relative to zombies, and vice versa. Players might also leave out of boredom or frustration, when the ratio is large. For instance, when there are many zombies, it is more difficult to find survivors to eat. This is boring and frustrating and zombies might leave or convert to survivors. Thus ratios more extreme than 2:1 are difficult to maintain. It might be expected that a 50:50 ratio would be the easiest to maintain, yet this ratio is rare.


[[Image:UD-SZI-Relative-Graph.png|800px|Comparison of the Proportion of Active Survivors v Active Zombies]]
==The Future and Conclusions==
Urban Dead will probably continue to suffer the slow, stable decline characteristic of the population trend of the last few years. Game updates are non-existent and events rare, and those events that occurred are lost in the day-to-day variations in populations. Zombies have received the lion's share of buffs and updates, yet their numbers are normally lower than survivors. How much the ratio is due to difference in game mechanics for survivors and zombies and how much a result of player preference is unclear. The ratio will likely remain 2:1 in favour of survivors, unless new game updates produce long-lasting population changes and/or players decide to play the game differently.


==Events Summary==
((This section could have more to say))
A brief summary of the events as numbered in the above two graphs.


{{:Statistics/Graph Events}}
==Gallery==
<gallery widths=250px heights=150px>
File:UD-SZI-Absolute-Graph.png|November 2005 to May 2011 absolute graph. This shows the actual changes in standing numbers over time, the magnitude of keys events can be seen easily.
File:UD-SZI-Relative-Graph.png|November 2005 to May 2011 relative graph. By using the percentage of each, one can see changes independent of the ever changing total active population and some effects which are more well hidden on the absolute values become obvious here.
File:Barhah.jpg|September 2005 to April 2009. [[A Brief History Of Barhah]] compares population statistics with a timeline of sieges and zombie campaigns.
</gallery>


==Sieges==
==See Also==
[[A Brief History Of Barhah]] compares population statistics with a timeline of sieges and zombie campaigns.
*[[Game Balance]] (out of date)
 
*[[Equilibrium]] (out of date)
[[Image:Barhah.jpg|800px|Comparison Of Sieges & Campaigns To Population Statistics]]
*[[UDWiki:Project Timeline|Game Timeline]] (pre-2013)
 
*See [[Survivor-Zombie Imbalance/Ratio History|Ratio History]] for descriptions of notable ratio changes. Mostly pre-2010.
=The History=
 
==The Strike (12/2005)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''21/12/2005'' 72% to 28% (35,457 to 14,137) with an estimated 59,200 active characters.
 
[[Survivors]] outnumber [[Zombies]]. This ultimately harms the game for everyone, since heavily unbalanced sides reduce the excitement and fun of the game.
 
Now infamous, a large number of players, survivors and zombies both, went [[On Strike]] in protest. Many gathered at [[Whetcombe Park (Stanbury Village)|Whetcombe Park]] for [[Stanstock]]. Their protest altered the levels drastically. Zombies made significant gains with many of the originally living protesters being converted, and game changes made to alter the balance to be more even.
 
==Before Syringe AP Increase (02/2006)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''27/3/2006'' An estimated 60% to 40%, 50,000 active characters, 25,000 survivors, 16,500 zombies.
 
With the changes implemented after the strike, the balance takes a drastic turn towards equality and the survivor count nosedives. This is largely due to the strike itself in which a large number of survivors were willingly killed during the protest but also due to the changes in favour of the zombies. The balance had been improved to but a bias against zombies still existed.
 
== After Syringe AP Increase (03/2006) ==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''27/3/2006'' An estimated 60% to 40%, 50,000 active characters, 25,000 survivors, 16,500 zombies.
 
On 28 March, syringes were changed to use 10 AP when reviving, up from 1 AP. This change reduced the use of syringes as combat weapons, as even characters with large amounts of syringes were restricted to five uses a day. Previously, syringes had been an AP-efficient way to kill zombies since they were a 1 AP use, 100% hit rate weapon.
 
The number of survivors drops significantly, and the ratio sees a brief period of equality.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''23/4/2006'' 50% to 50% (18,838 to 19,102) 46,055 active characters.
 
After this, the short term effect of the changes is adapted to by survivors, and survivor numbers begin a steady increase. This is compounded by active zombie players also leaving in larger numbers. The ratio took a violent swing for the survivors as a result.
 
==Redressing the Ratio (06/2006)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''15/6/2006'' 59% to 41% (20,550 to 14,236) 41,439 active characters.
 
The slow survivor increase and the amount of zombies abandoning the game leaves the ratio in a sorry state. This is not left alone for long and new zombie skills are introduced. This doesn't seem to affect the amount of total characters, but the zombies make significant ground up on the unwary survivors and the ratio closes sharply, to rough equality.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''3/7/2006'' 49% to 51% (17,254 to 17,867) 42,986 active characters.
 
The impact is is sharp, but short. Zombies continue to gain ground until survivors have an equally sharp bounce back of their own. The zombie peak is as follows:
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''20/7/2006'' 43% to 57% (14,325 to 19,239) 40,173 active characters.
 
Survivors later reach their own peak of similar magnitude:
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''18/8/2006'' 57% to 43% (17,924 to 13,641) 38,211 active characters
 
==The Depression (12/2006)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''21/12/2006'' 57% to 43% (17,979 to 13,810) 38,549 active characters.
 
Despite a steady gain on survivors numbers on the in intervening months, zombie numbers take a sharp hit in November and the situation ends up similar to 4 months ago.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''18/1/2007'' 64% to 36% (19,060 to 10,878) 36,274 active characters.
 
The Christmas/New Year period sees many zombie characters idle out, and a slight bump in survivor numbers. The ratio, fragile at this point, takes a bad hit. With zombie players becoming disinterested in playing things look bleak.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''6/2/2007'' 60% to 40% (18,812 to 12,399) 37,823 active characters.
 
The effects of the holiday period seem to be slowing, but while the ratio is still significantly off, it does not remain so for long.
 
==Redressing the Ratio, ''a lot'' (02/2007)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''16/2/2007'' 55% to 45% (17,720 to 14,599) 39,415 active characters.
 
A zombie buff sees the ratio radically redressed. Zombies see rapid and substantial swings in their favour. The growth of their numbers is strong. Survivors are assisted by a rise in the total active characters, but this only serves to stem their fall a little.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''19/3/2007'' 43% to 57% (14,097 to 19,016) 40,418 active characters.
 
For the first time, the ratio is appreciably in zombie favour. The rate of growth in zombie characters remains as strong as ever, the survivor fall continued steadily, still lightly softened by new characters mainly flocking to their camp.
 
==Numbers Swing (04/2007)==
 
Official logging begins on April 22. During the little-over-a-month period since the zombie advantageous ratio of March 18, the numbers have changed dramatically. The results on the graph are an interpolation between the two dates and the true sharpness of the change is not know. From a 16% zombie leads, things go badly.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''22/4/2007'' 51% to 49% (15,992 to 15,337) 38,761 active characters.
 
The general cause of this rapid change is not known, if anybody has a good theory, they should make it known.
 
By the end of May, things had gotten bad for the zombies.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''31/5/2007'' 63% to 27% (20,056 to 11,615) 38,788 active characters.
 
At this point, things peaked and trends began to reverse, the ratio started a move towards equality again. The true length or pervasiveness of this trend will never be known, because not long after it began...
 
==[[Yahoomas]] (06/2007)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''17/6/2007'' 60% to 40% (19,261 to 12,611) 39,202 active characters.
 
On June 18, the game was featured in an article on Yahoo. Yahoo, needless to say, is popular. Numbers sky-rocket for both sides.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''19/6/2007'' 62% to 38% (25,075 to 15,115) 49,603 active characters.
 
An extra 10,000 players flock in; 6,000 survivors, 2,500 zombies and 1,500 dead bodies.
 
Yahoomas was a short effect affair, despite the big increases, the effect had almost entirely worn off by the end of the month, with numbers returning to their pre-Yahoomas levels and re-entering the trend from before. Survivor numbers continued their downward trawl with even greater speed. Zombie numbers returned to their marked increases after a period of slow decline so that it could rejoin the cycle where it left off.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''30/6/2007'' 57% to 43% (20,186 to 14,986) 42,581 active characters.
 
==Zombie Upswing... (08/2007)==
 
Player numbers started to fall after this. Survivors, already their numbers falling, saw their rate of descent become steeper. Zombies, who had been enjoying a comeback, saw their rise slowly peak, and then began a slow and gradual decline of their own.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''13/08/2007'' 56% to 44% (17,971 to 13,871) 38,698 active characters.
 
After this date, zombies showed a marked growth at the expense of survivor numbers. a little later a change to free running involving ruins would further hamper survivors and press home the zombie advantage.  The combined effect would see a brush with equality at the end of October.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''31/8/2007'' 49% to 51% (15,811 to 16,539) 39,239 active characters.
 
==...And Downswing (09/2007)==
 
Inexplicably (anybody got any good theories?), zombies numbers took a massive turn for the worse after the peak of the upswing. Survivors converted many, and yet more were lost due to idle outs. This massive downturn was to prove long term in its repercussions, after initially bottoming out on September 21.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''21/9/2007'' 62% to 38% (18,882 to 11,543) 36,970 active characters.
 
==A Period of Stability (01/2008)==
 
After the sudden downturn, the ratio never really recovered. Zombie control stayed lowed for some time, the survivor ratio staying between 57% and 64% for the period. Both sides saw a general decline in player numbers.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''1/1/2008'' 60% to 40% (15,362 to 10,474) 31,584 active characters.
 
The ratio then became more decisive, and the zombies were to find themselves in an ever worse situation. Survivor numbers began to rise steadily and zombie numbers managed to slump yet further, dropping below 10,000 for the first time ever.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''22/1/2008'' 66% to 34% (18,770 to 9,520) 34,117 active characters.
 
The worse ratio since pre-Stanstock, the zombies were now outnumbered by an overwhelming 2:1.
 
==The Zombies Strike Back (01/2008)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''22/1/2008'' 66% to 34% (18,770 to 9,520) 34,117 active characters.
 
Game mechanics are radically altered to aid the zombies. Survivors find themselves slightly beaten up, but the zombies didn't stop there. A wave of new accounts (presumably to enjoy the change) helped rocket the balance to near equilibrium.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''20/2/2008'' 50% to 50% (15,493 to 15,342) 37,830 active characters.
 
This, however, was only the start.
 
==The Dead/SA & Monroeville aka The Great Crash (02/2008)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''20/2/2008'' 50% to 50% (15,493 to 15,342) 37,830 active characters.
 
The zombie boosts were still benefiting zombies as the ratio reached equality. A group of players from Something Awful came en masse to Urban Dead, creating a group later to become known simply as [[The Dead]]. Zombies gain around 4,000, survivors 9,000 in the period of 9 days. It is, unequivocally, the fastest growth in numbers the game has ever seen.
 
Now add into the mix, a new Urban Dead city, [[Monroeville]], opening on February 25. Cue a mash rush to sign up.
 
Up until now I've been using end of day statistics from the official records. Permit me now to use some hourly ones to make a point. The mass sign up had boosted numbers to their peak, as shown below.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''29/2/2008 17:00'' 56% to 44% (24,456 to 19,305) 51,834 active characters.
 
You can see the substantial rises in numbers for both sides over the period, some 14,000 characters. Now factor in the opening of Monroeville some days earlier. People playing characters there could no longer use their IP hits in Malton. The characters they left standing would be idling out any time soon.
 
The first wave hit just an hour later.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''29/2/2008 18:00'' 47% to 53% (15,955 to 17,820) 41,462 active characters.
 
The zombies lost 1,500 characters in this hour alone, the migration from the SA forums had cushioned this.
 
The survivors lost almost 10,000 characters, 40% of their entire population, in the space of an hour, back to pre-SA levels. It was the single biggest loss to either side in the space of an hour, ever.
 
It didn't stop there.
 
Survivor numbers '''''plummeted'''''. Meanwhile, zombie numbers later made a recovery to numbers almost as high as their SA peak.
 
The ratio reached its greatest post-Stanstock disparity, and it was in favour of the zombies. The final values at the survivors lowest point follow.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''24/3/2008 14:01'' 31% to 69% (8,478 to 18,394) 33,783 active characters.
 
The loss was the greatest change (not just fall, but change) in numbers in the history of the game. The combined migration of players to Monroeville and arrival of strong zombie hordes had turned the tables, definitively, in little over a month.
 
==Survivors Bounce Back (03/2008)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''24/3/2008 14:01'' 31% to 69% (8,478 to 18,394) 33,783 active characters.
 
Zombie numbers had levelled out for sometime, but survivor numbers were still plummeting, having dipped under the 10,000 mark (Indeed, the 8,500 mark). The hordes had reached capacity, if the rate of attrition kept up, survivors would be gone in a month, maybe two. The game would be over.
 
Something was needed to turn it around, something equally as fast impacting as either SA or the opening of Monroeville.
 
That something happened, Monroeville closed. Since death (or rather, undeath) was permanent, and new characters could not be made, people flocked back to their Malton alts. Survivor numbers rose sharply. Zombie numbers fell equally as sharply as a result.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''03/04/2008'' 40% to 60% (11,296 to 16,711) 35,696 active characters.
 
Numbers remained level after the jump. It has been a short boost after all, and not an effect that would have longer term consequences. The jolt had happened however, and a week or so later survivors would get back into the groove and begin to drive zombie numbers back down. It took time, but 2-3 months of effort had reversed the situation.
 
The reason was because no fundamentals had changed. The zombie boost and effect of SA had been as short term as anything else. Compare the periods on the graph around 11/2007 and 6/2008. They're not that dissimilar. Arguably, there is some long term effect, and the numbers are indeed slightly better for zombies. But over,all the effect was negligible.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''13/6/2008'' 63% to 37% (17,084 to 9,879) 33,370 active characters.
 
==Monroeville, All Over Again (06/2008)==
 
Monroeville later reopens, but with much less effect. Less people migrate, zombie numbers are already in tatters, spurred on by neither a recent boost nor a mass influx of players on their side. Survivor number take a hit, but not much of one. The zombies fail to capitalize much. The ratio steers towards equality, but not with any great effort or driving purpose. The gain was mostly due to survivors idling out. The best zombie peak is below.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''26/7/2008'' 53% to 47% (12,908 to 11,342) 29,970 active characters.
 
The survivors adapt again, and the gap widens back to previous levels, before the zombies begin to make up ground again and close it to a 10% difference. Levels are slow in their changes.
 
==Borehamwood (10/2008)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''27/10/2008'' 54% to 46% (12,867 to 10,951) 29,546 active characters.
 
Borehamwood opens on October 28, another new city. With zombies on good footing at this point, the effect of the survivor migration is enough to let them gain some strength. They capitalize well and flip the ratio round. It peaks during December.
 
==Search Rate Boost (12/2008)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''5/12/2008'' 39% to 61% (8,259 to 13,162)  27,131 active characters.
 
The diminishing number of total players over time means that smaller differences are creating bigger effects on the percentages. It also means smaller numbers of revives/survivor deaths will have a bigger effect on the ratio.
 
Search rates are quietly increased, this saves survivor AP, regardless of their skill. This core boost, though small, sends survivors off to reverse the current ratio pretty fast. Numbers swap drastically. The following is the survivor peak.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''16/12/2008'' 55% to 45% (12,033 to 9,701) 27,410 active characters.
 
==Stability Regained (01/2009)==
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''15/1/2009'' 63% to 37% (13,596 to 7,887) 26,801 active characters.
 
The quick switch-around of fortune appears to level off with a sizeable survivor advantage in mid-Janurary, and levels remain reasonably constant for several months to follow.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''1/4/2009'' 63% to 37% (13,713 to 8,012) 27,648 active characters.
 
==Survivor Diminishment (04/2009)==
 
The smaller player base of the recent history of the game becomes apparent, when a small drop in the survivor count sees an appreciable change in the ratio, the change takes a couple of months to come into full force, and sees the ratio narrow by 14%.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''26/5/2009'' 56% to 44% (11,446 to 9,169) 25,786 active characters.
 
Survivors bounce back at a slower rate in the months following, as overall zombie numbers fall this time. They reach a lower peak in late September.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''19/9/2009'' 62% to 38% (11,487 to 7,163) 23,369 active characters.
 
==End of Year Reverse (11/2009)==
 
Zombies then make a more significant contribution and begin turning their fortunes considerably. Though it's takes time, progress is steady and sure enough the ratio swaps to a zombie majority, peaking on none other than Christmas day.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''25/12/2009'' 45% to 55% (8,440 to 10,171) 23,912 active characters.
 
Survivors have hit back slightly into the new year, and have managed to retake a slim majority.
 
==Survivors Restore Status Quo (02/2010)==
 
As quickly as things has turned into zombie favour, survivors turn them back around and return the ratio to November levels as February begins where it remains steady for a brief time.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''01/02/2009'' 60% to 40% (10,282 to 6,980) 21,936 active characters.
 
Survivors then take another five percent in early February which also lasts for a short time before subsiding.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''01/03/2009'' 65% to 35% (10,623 to 5,799) 20,786 active characters.
 
As April begins, the game has returned to the usual ratio of survivor advantage.
 
'''The Ratio:''' ''01/04/2009'' 60% to 40% (9,339 to 6,254) 19,938 active characters.
 
Overall numbers have now been on a slow but steady decline for roughly two years, and have now dipped below 20,000.
 
 
''This analysis is based on recent trends, and other may show up in due course.''
 
==The Future==
 
The future could hold many things for the ratio, and Urban Dead in general. However, based on the past history a few general assumptions can be made.
 
*Active player numbers will continue to decrease. They've been on a steady downward trend over the last 3 years, and that is unlikely to change.
*Game mechanic changes will remain short term. Due to the aversion of this wiki to accept suggestions altering core game mechanics, it is unlikely that the fundamentals will change. Players will adapt to any changes in due time with little long term consequence.
*Survivors will continue to make up ground, left to their own devices. Survivors have always improved things to their favour when not affected by other events. The core game seems biased to allow them the maximum adaptability they need. Zombies have developed a huge metagame, just to be able to compete.
*The best theory is none of the theories initially stated.
**The ratio refuses to settle anywhere near 50% and instead storms off in either direction.
**Zombies could easily end the game if they outnumber survivors (as the SA period showed it might happen)
**Letting the system be just leads to a gradual survivor victory or zombie curbstomp, as we've seen.
 
= Related=
 
*[[Game Balance]]
 
= External Links =


==External Links==
* [http://www.urbandead.com/stats.html Game Statistics Page]
* [http://www.urbandead.com/stats.html Game Statistics Page]
* [http://www.urbandead.com/stats.csv Game Statistics Log] for comprehensive data post April 22, 2007
* [http://www.urbandead.com/stats.csv Game Statistics Log] for comprehensive data post April 22, 2007
* [http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.urbandead.com/stats.html Wayback Machine] for sporadic data pre April 22, 2007
* [http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.urbandead.com/stats.html Wayback Machine] for sporadic data pre April 22, 2007
[[Category:Statistics]]

Revision as of 01:33, 28 December 2013

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Contents
Interpreting the Graph • Factors Influencing the Ratio • The Future and Conclusions • Gallery and Further Reading


SZI Graph.png

Survivor (blue) and zombie (green) populations from October 2005 to December 2013. Dips and peaks correspond to notable player events (names) and game updates (numbers). Scroll horizontally to view full graph.
Date Range Events Game Updates
November, 2005 First Siege of Caiger Mall (1) Generators and Profiles added.
December, 2005 On Strike (2) Headshot takes AP instead of XP. Air drops are first observed.
(3) Groans implemented.
January, 2006 Mall Tour '06
February, 2006 Second Siege of Caiger Mall (4) Tangling Grasp added.
March, 2006 (5) Syringe nerf.
April, 2006 (6) Ransack is added, and powered buildings increase search rates.
June, 2006 (7) Zombies can now drag critically-wounded survivors. Scent Fear tweaked and ransacked buildings must be cleared before being barricaded.
August to November, 2006 Battle of Blackmore, Third Siege of Caiger Mall (8) Scenth Death buffed and flailing gestures added; binoculars added and knives buffed.
(9) Malton's first fog. Adjacent powered buildings highlighted, billboards added, bodies must be dumped individually.
(10) Forts are now functioning.
December, 2006 to February, 2007 The Big Bash, Mall Tour '07 (11) Zombies gain XP for destroying barricades and machinery, and for ransacking buildings.
March, 2007 (12) Museums have lootable decorations. Large items take more inventory space.
April to May, 2007 Battle of Santlerville (13) Clothes added.
June, 2007 Yahoomas
July to August, 2007 Battle of SantLUEville (14) Zombies can ruin buildings, which interferes with freerunning. Survivors need toolboxes to repair ruins.
December, 2007 to January, 2008 Battle of Pitneybank (15) Barricade interference added.
February, 2008 Monroeville introduced
March, 2008 March of the Dead, Big Bash 2
May, 2008 (16) Decay and darkness implemented.
October, 2008 Borehamwood introduced (17) Flesh rot added. Zombies can eat dead bodies. Battles are bloodier and Mall FAK rates drop.
February, 2009 Mall Tour '09
July, 2009 (18) Feeding groans buffed. The dark is darker. Emergency broadcast system added.
July to September, 2010 Escape, Big Bash 3 (19) Last game mechanic update. Bellow added, and survivors can scout safehoues.
April to July, 2011 The Dead 2.0
October to December, 2011 Mall Tour '11
May to October, 2013 Big Bash 4


Interpreting the Graph

The graph shows that significant player events and game updates correspond to peaks and dips in the survivor and zombie populations. It is assumed that the ratio will not change without the effects of game updates and player events. When these occur, the ratio changes if not reversing to favour the other side. After that, and as the norm, the ratio tends to favour survivors. As game updates and events become less prevalent, the ratio settles. Since August 2011, the ratio has refused switch, and rests unfettered at 2:1 in favour of survivors. Ideally, players prefer one of three of the following ideal ratios.

  • Equal numbers of zombies and survivors. Rarely stated explicitly, implied by the word "balance", this viewpoint holds that Malton's population should be split 50:50 between living and unliving. Members of both sides could easily find opponents. Often, people think that if one side numbers fewer than 50%, then it must have an inherent weakness, and so needs to be made more powerful. Game updates are often implemented to correct an uneven balance, but generally seem to only have a short term effect.
  • Zombies heavily outnumber survivors. Considered to be particularly in-genre, here humans desperately try to survive against vastly larger numbers of zombies. The risk (or is that the opportunity?) here is that the zombies may wipe out the last of the survivors, and without survivors to play with or against, the game is over.
  • Let it be (Laissez-faire). This view says it's best that search and barricade rates are not adjusted, and that game mechanics are not changed to alter the ratio. Zombies are simply better than survivors as far as long-term combat and staying power goes, yet survivors almost always have the numbers advantage. This means that advantages given to zombies would increase the power of an already superior class, while advantages given to survivors only solidifies their strength in numbers. Leaving things as-is means that every event in-game is a result of player actions.

The ratio refuses to rest at a 50:50 split. Equal numbers usually only happens when the ratio switches. The longest interval at that ratio is only a month long—from November to December 2010. When zombies heavily outnumber survivors, the effect is short-lived and hinges on game updates or events (e.g. the Dead and events 2, 3, 15). For the past few years, the game has been left to its own devices. Without updates or large events, survivors are given the numbers advantage.

Why is the ratio so?

Factors Influencing the Ratio

People will play the side they want to play. There is little to stop a player from playing the game as a survivor or zombie; it just matters what the player finds fun. This being so, players choose a side for many reasons. THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO ADD INPUT. THIS SHOULD BE AS FACTUAL AS POSSIBLE.

  • Game mechanics. This includes many things, for instance:
    • Differences exist in AP required to perform complementary actions between survivors and zombies. It takes more AP to remove barricades than to build them, as is often cited. Zombie melee is more AP efficient than survivor melee (further details).
    • Perceptions of game balance affect interest (i.e. a player may view their side as being underpowered).
    • Survivors play differently than zombies. Survivor gameplay is more complex; they have a greater diversity of actions. Many survivor actions have no complement on the zombie side of things. For instance, survivors can search, speak better and use radios, and have more ways to kill. Zombie gameplay revolves around breaking barricades and killing survivors, mostly using the same button—the claw.
    • It is takes less for zombies to get back into play than for survivors. Apart from Combat Revives, killing a zombie does not cause it to "switch sides" and become a survivor; only AP is required for the zombie to play as a zombie again. Upon death, survivors must rely on other players in order to play as a survivor again. The point? When times are tough for survivors, a few things happen. Survivors stay as zombies longer, since many revivers are dead themselves and those who live may be AP-strapped. At this point AP is idle while these survivor "Mrh? Cows" sway at revive points. Thus zombie numbers are "artificially" larger (meaning fewer zombies are hunting survivors than would otherwise be thought); and survivor are less able to recuperate their numbers when they need the revives the most. (The net affect of this, or how much ratio is pulled toward zombies and how much to survivors, is debatable.)
  • Game updates. Changes made by Kevan correlate with changes in the ratio, sometimes ending up with zombies favoured, but at other times, survivors are. Usually this is short-lived, but it might be interpreted that the ratio was permanently brought closer together after updates 1 through 5 were added.
  • Player events. Outside groups inject many players into the game, who many prefer to play as one side over another. Yahoomas and the Dead are examples.
  • Survivors are the good guys. Or, similarly, people often play zombie apocalypse games to fight zombies and survive.
  • Survivors have a significant sub-set, PKers; zombies don't. A notable portion of the survivor population are PKers. Conversely, ZKers aren't so popular. (How significant?)
  • Severely unbalanced ratios are self-correcting. Syringe search rates become higher with fewer survivors relative to zombies, and vice versa. Players might also leave out of boredom or frustration, when the ratio is large. For instance, when there are many zombies, it is more difficult to find survivors to eat. This is boring and frustrating and zombies might leave or convert to survivors. Thus ratios more extreme than 2:1 are difficult to maintain. It might be expected that a 50:50 ratio would be the easiest to maintain, yet this ratio is rare.

The Future and Conclusions

Urban Dead will probably continue to suffer the slow, stable decline characteristic of the population trend of the last few years. Game updates are non-existent and events rare, and those events that occurred are lost in the day-to-day variations in populations. Zombies have received the lion's share of buffs and updates, yet their numbers are normally lower than survivors. How much the ratio is due to difference in game mechanics for survivors and zombies and how much a result of player preference is unclear. The ratio will likely remain 2:1 in favour of survivors, unless new game updates produce long-lasting population changes and/or players decide to play the game differently.

((This section could have more to say))

Gallery

  • November 2005 to May 2011 absolute graph. This shows the actual changes in standing numbers over time, the magnitude of keys events can be seen easily.

    November 2005 to May 2011 absolute graph. This shows the actual changes in standing numbers over time, the magnitude of keys events can be seen easily.

  • November 2005 to May 2011 relative graph. By using the percentage of each, one can see changes independent of the ever changing total active population and some effects which are more well hidden on the absolute values become obvious here.

    November 2005 to May 2011 relative graph. By using the percentage of each, one can see changes independent of the ever changing total active population and some effects which are more well hidden on the absolute values become obvious here.

  • September 2005 to April 2009. A Brief History Of Barhah compares population statistics with a timeline of sieges and zombie campaigns.

    September 2005 to April 2009. A Brief History Of Barhah compares population statistics with a timeline of sieges and zombie campaigns.

See Also

External Links

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