User:A Helpful Little Gnome/Sandbox899: Difference between revisions
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| '''August 18th & 28th.''' Survivors gain an unlikely foothold in the zombie homeland of [[Ridleybank]], turning into a two month siege, the [[Battle of Blackmore]], at the suburb's only [[NecroTech Building]]. Although frequently outnumbering the zombies, the survivors eventually | | '''August 18th & 28th.''' Survivors gain an unlikely foothold in the zombie homeland of [[Ridleybank]], turning into a two month siege, the [[Battle of Blackmore]], at the suburb's only [[NecroTech Building]]. Although frequently outnumbering the zombies, the survivors eventually succumb to a [[Shacknews|coordinated attack]] on October the 13th. Later in August, survivors become more effective with knives, while the zombie sense of death sharpens and have learned to make crude, [[flailing gesture|flailing gestures]]. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2008'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2008'''</span></big></big> | ||
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|'''January 2nd & 23rd.''' The Second Big Bash hits a month long [[Battle of Pitneybank|siege at Pitneybank]]. A controversial and incredibly influence game update in the third week of fighting, [[interference|barricade interference]], makes holding [[Giddings Mall]] and other tactical locations against the [[Beachhead Tactic|zombie beachheads]] untenable. <br/>'''February 25th & 28th.''' While a second city, [[Monroeville]], opens, a massive, [[The Dead|world-ending horde]] fuelled by an [[Wikipedia:Something Awful|external forum]] [[March of The Dead|marches on the city]]. The survivor population drops to 31%, the lowest to-date. '''March 28th.''' [[Monroeville]] is quarantined, blocking character creation. Headshot becomes permanent. | |'''January 2nd & 23rd.''' The Second Big Bash hits a month long [[Battle of Pitneybank|siege at Pitneybank]]. A controversial and incredibly influence game update in the third week of fighting, [[interference|barricade interference]], makes holding [[Giddings Mall]] and other tactical locations against the [[Beachhead Tactic|zombie beachheads]] untenable. <br/>'''February 25th & 28th.''' While a second city, [[Monroeville]], opens, a massive, [[The Dead|world-ending horde]] fuelled by an [[Wikipedia:Something Awful|external forum]] [[March of The Dead|marches on the city]]. The survivor population drops to 31%, the lowest to-date. <br/>'''March 28th.''' [[Monroeville]] is quarantined, blocking character creation. Headshot becomes permanent. | ||
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|<span style='line-height:10px'>'''May 28th.''' [[Decay]] sets in, making ruined buildings more costly to repair.</span> | |<span style='line-height:10px'>'''May 28th.''' [[Decay]] sets in, making ruined buildings more costly to repair.</span> | ||
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|'''August 25th.''' Only [[The Monroeville 100|100 survivors remain in Monroeville]]. | |'''August 25th.''' Only [[The Monroeville 100|100 survivors remain in Monroeville]]. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2009'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2009'''</span></big></big> | ||
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|<span style='line-height:0px'>'''January 9th.''' [[Mall Tour '09]] begins | |<span style='line-height:0px'>'''January 9th.''' [[Mall Tour '09]] begins, then demolishes most of [[Malton]]'s malls.</span> | ||
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|'''July 3rd.''' Groans made inside closed doors are now muffled | |'''July 3rd.''' Groans made inside closed doors are now muffled. Survivors find the old, [[Emergency Broadcast System]] hidden in [[the Coram Building]]. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2010'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2010'''</span></big></big> | ||
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|'''June 1st & 3rd.''' Hundreds of players congregate at [[Ellicott Place Railway Station]], adjacent [[border|Malton's border]]. The plan: [[Escape]]. The outcome: nothing in particular. Shortly after, [[Big Bash 3|The Big Bash 3]] begins shambling across the city, | |'''June 1st & 3rd.''' Hundreds of players congregate at [[Ellicott Place Railway Station]], adjacent to [[border|Malton's border]]. The plan: [[Escape]]. The outcome: nothing in particular. Shortly after, [[Big Bash 3|The Big Bash 3]] begins shambling across the city, putting an end to what they believe is a fatal condition called "breathing." | ||
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|'''March 27th (ish).''' The world almost ends again. [[The Dead 2.0|The Dead]] [[March of The Dead 2|march on Malton for a second time]], leading to the most drastic population inequality in Malton's (recorded) history.* Survivor numbers | |'''March 27th (ish).''' The world almost ends again. [[The Dead 2.0|The Dead]] [[March of The Dead 2|march on Malton for a second time]], leading to the most drastic population inequality in Malton's (recorded) history.* Survivor numbers plummet to its lowest in mid May, settling at 15%. Efforts to reduce this percentage even lower, preferably to 0%, are met with massive resistance from a key game mechanic: syringe search rates depend on the survivor-zombie ratio. The low relative abundance of survivors allow them to easily find syringes, even in ruined [[NecroTech|NecroTechs]]. Eventually, The Dead lose steam, leading to The Long Tail. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2011 <small>(continued)</small>'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2011 <small>(continued)</small>'''</span></big></big> | ||
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|'''October 3rd.''' Malton's last [[Mall Tour '11|mall tour]]. Although | |'''October 3rd.''' Malton's last [[Mall Tour '11|mall tour]]. Although the late stage of the game tempers the size of the horde, survivors fare far worse. The malls–nearly empty, nearly ruined, or ruined already–fall easily to the horde. | ||
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|'''June 1st.''' [[Big Bash 4|The Big Bash 4]] | |'''June 1st.''' [[Big Bash 4|The Big Bash 4]], the last bash and the last player event on this graph. This Bash is gravely concerned for survivor safety; survivors, who for a moment believe the zombies have their best interests in mind, quickly realize the zombies feel they are ''too'' safe. In other words, many zombies eat many survivors. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2014'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2014'''</span></big></big> | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:28px'>'''2015'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:28px'>'''2015'''</span></big></big> | ||
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|'''July 3rd.''' On Urban Dead's birthday, [[User:Kevan|Kevan]] opens up [http://www.urbandead.com/survey.cgi the State of the Apocalypse Survey]. The survey asked what suggestions you would add, the flavour and gameplay changes you are interested in, and what you like best and least. The results were never officially released, nor leaked surreptitiously. Kevan never appeared to act on the results, so far as anyone can tell. | |'''July 3rd.''' On Urban Dead's birthday, [[User:Kevan|Kevan]] opens up [http://www.urbandead.com/survey.cgi the State of the Apocalypse Survey]. The survey asked what suggestions you would add, the flavour and gameplay changes you are interested in, and what you like best and least. The results were never officially released, nor leaked surreptitiously. Kevan never appeared to act on the results, so far as anyone can tell. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2017'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2017'''</span></big></big> | ||
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|'''November 3rd.''' Mass [[zerging]]. It is so obvious that it can be seen from space (i.e., this graph). | |'''November 3rd.''' Mass [[zerging]]. It is so obvious that it can be seen from space (i.e., this graph). Zombie numbers spike roughly 1,300 over two days, then plummet on the third. Levels of normal and revivifying bodies remain untouched, as do survivors, suggesting the zombies were banned en masse. | ||
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<big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2018'''</span></big></big> | <big><big><span style='line-height:0px'>'''2018'''</span></big></big> | ||
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<Big><big><big>'''CONCLUSION'''</BIG></big></big> | <Big><big><big>'''CONCLUSION'''</BIG></big></big> | ||
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The ratio stabilized as time went on. By The Long Tail, there were three survivors for every two zombies. (To be precise, it's an average of 1.55 survivors per zombie over the entire game history.) Is this a sign of game imbalance? | The ratio stabilized as time went on. By The Long Tail, there were three survivors for every two zombies. (To be precise, it's an average of 1.55 survivors per zombie over the entire game history.) Is this a sign of game imbalance? | ||
What things ''should'' look like is | Of course, "it depends." What things ''should'' look like is an opinion (pick one, none, or more): | ||
*'''Equal numbers of zombies and survivors'''. This is the most "on the nose" interpretation of game balance. It implies that if survivors are more numerous, they are stronger than zombies (and vice versa). Typically this takes the form of one side being more efficient with AP, whether its killing the opposing side, revivifying them, or barricade dynamics. | *'''Equal numbers of zombies and survivors'''. This is the most "on the nose" interpretation of game balance. It implies that if survivors are more numerous, they are stronger than zombies (and vice versa). Typically this takes the form of one side being more efficient with AP, whether its killing the opposing side, revivifying them, or barricade dynamics. | ||
*'''Zombies heavily outnumber survivors'''. The most in-genre, and some believe this is a way to [[end of the game]]. While it presents both great danger and excitement for survivors, it runs the risk of creating frustration in survivors who stay dead for long periods of time and for zombies who find nothing to munch on. The self-correcting nature of revivification rates through [[Syringe#NecroTech_Revivification_Syringe|syringe search odds]], as well as [[Imagine/DIRT:NAP|Dirt Nap]] tactics and new characters signing up, makes this scenario unlikely to hold up over the long term. | *'''Zombies heavily outnumber survivors'''. The most in-genre, and some believe this is a way to [[end of the game]]. While it presents both great danger and excitement for survivors, it runs the risk of creating frustration in survivors who stay dead for long periods of time and for zombies who find nothing to munch on. The self-correcting nature of revivification rates through [[Syringe#NecroTech_Revivification_Syringe|syringe search odds]], as well as [[Imagine/DIRT:NAP|Dirt Nap]] tactics and new characters signing up, makes this scenario unlikely to hold up over the long term. | ||
*'''An unstable ratio.''' Sometimes survivors outnumber zombies. Sometimes zombies outnumber survivors. The game might be the most fun if the ratio never stabilizes over the long term. | *'''An unstable ratio.''' Sometimes survivors outnumber zombies. Sometimes zombies outnumber survivors. The game might be the most fun if the ratio never stabilizes over the long term. | ||
*'''Let it be (Laissez-faire)'''. In other words, don't alter the game mechanics and let the ratio go wherever it will. This is the current state of the game. | *'''Let it be (Laissez-faire)'''. In other words, don't alter the game mechanics and let the ratio go wherever it will. ''This is the current state of the game.'' | ||
The opinion of this author: the ratio favours survivors because they have more things to do and are more fun to play. The actual game mechanics are secondary to this. The fact that players choose the side they want to play damages the idea that AP efficiency is the cause for the relative overabundance of survivors... with the exception of the few and far between [[Dual Nature]] players. | |||
Consider game [[Wikipedia:chemical equilibrium|equilibrium]]. Whenever a survivor is killed, they become zombies until they are revived. The rate at which survivors go through this process depends on how much AP it takes to kill them, to find syringes, find survivors to revive, and then revive them. But the game balance cannot be reduced to the math of AP efficiency. If dead survivors ''want'' to be alive, they [[Mrh Cow|go to revive points]], get revived, and try not to die again. This increases the rate at which survivors are revived, but it is based on player preference rather than the direct cost of AP. To drive the point home, if every player suddenly decides they only want to be zombies, then they purchase [[brain rot]] or jump out of buildings. This would greatly slow the rate at which zombies become survivors, increasing the relative abundance of zombies. If we really wanted to know how balanced the game is from an AP efficiency perspective, everyone would need to play as Dual Nature. | |||
Revision as of 04:27, 21 June 2020
[toc]
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The Survivor / Zombie Ratio, December 2005 to April 2020. Data obtained from Urban Dead statistics, April 2017 to current day. Older data from the Wayback Machine was collected manually.3
INTERPRETING THE GRAPHS The first graph shows the survivor-zombie ratio. The graph below shows the absolute survivor and zombie populations in a series of three parts: Early Day Volatility (EDV), The Swings (TW), and The Long Tail (TLT).4 These graphs go in-depth, listing most game updates and a small number of player-initiated events. While the game updates are listed regardless of their impact on the survivor-zombie ratio, partly due to the relative infrequency of the updates, the player events are (usually) listed if they seem to be responsible for a shift in the survivor-zombie ratio. An underlying assumption is that the ratio only changes if a force acts on it, be it a game update or player event. Although it often seems "obvious" that a game update or player event caused a shift in the ratio, it is impossible to identify all player events occurring at a given time; not all have been written into history. And given a specific time point, multiple events could be happening at the same time. How do we determine the degree to which each event influenced the ratio? Sometimes, however, an event is so large that it undeniably caused a change in the ratio. Call it a natural experiment. All that said, the purpose of the following in-depth graph is to chronicle the game balance over the years, without pointing too many fingers.
CAVEATS
WHY ISN'T [INSERT EVENT HERE] ON THE GRAPH? The graph maker may have missed an important game event (and it should be included). But it's also important to minimize the number of events and game updates on the page, as there's only so much room available. Larger scale events, such as roaming hordes and "big picture" moments in history (e.g., protests) are typically included. While some events clearly had no impact on the ratio, such as The Big Bash 4, they are still listed here. This is mainly included for the reader's interest, since the earlier versions of events tended to have a stronger impact. A few second city events are included for interest, even though their respective populations are not present in Malton's statistics. Some of the simpler or cosmetic game updates are also not mentioned, such as bug fixes, server upgrades, and unofficial changes (example).
EARLY DAY VOLATILITY The first year or so of Urban Dead's history was marked by rapid game updates, establishing fundamental mechanics that flattened the ratio close to equality. These changes came quickly on the heels of social upheaval, the kind consisting of protests, violent riots, and roaming zombie hordes. It was an energetic, though uncertain time.
The ratio stabilized as time went on. By The Long Tail, there were three survivors for every two zombies. (To be precise, it's an average of 1.55 survivors per zombie over the entire game history.) Is this a sign of game imbalance? Of course, "it depends." What things should look like is an opinion (pick one, none, or more):
The opinion of this author: the ratio favours survivors because they have more things to do and are more fun to play. The actual game mechanics are secondary to this. The fact that players choose the side they want to play damages the idea that AP efficiency is the cause for the relative overabundance of survivors... with the exception of the few and far between Dual Nature players. Consider game equilibrium. Whenever a survivor is killed, they become zombies until they are revived. The rate at which survivors go through this process depends on how much AP it takes to kill them, to find syringes, find survivors to revive, and then revive them. But the game balance cannot be reduced to the math of AP efficiency. If dead survivors want to be alive, they go to revive points, get revived, and try not to die again. This increases the rate at which survivors are revived, but it is based on player preference rather than the direct cost of AP. To drive the point home, if every player suddenly decides they only want to be zombies, then they purchase brain rot or jump out of buildings. This would greatly slow the rate at which zombies become survivors, increasing the relative abundance of zombies. If we really wanted to know how balanced the game is from an AP efficiency perspective, everyone would need to play as Dual Nature.
OLDER GRAPHS SEE ALSO
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